Brexit-What We Know so Far
In recent times, Brexit has proven to be a problematic subject, with statements such as this from US President Donald Trump "I think we have to take a look seriously whether or not the U.K. is allowed to trade because right now if you look at the deal, they may not be able to trade with us," showing what the reality of Brexit could be. Although Theresa may has denied this possibility, there is a level of truth to the Presidents' statement, as the UK, according to the current agreement, would not allow for an increase in UK-US trades beyond what is currently set out in the EU.
Furthermore, promises made by the leave campaign and their supporters have been silently dropped, such as the promise of no transition deals, and subjection to EU laws. However, on the contrary, in the current agreement, according to article 123, the UK will have to follow all EU rules and have a transition period of 21 months. To make matters worse, the UK must abide by rules and regulations made in that 21 month transition period, leaving a sense of lack of control, which is against one of the main points of Brexit, that the UK will 'take back control'.
Another broken promise is that to end free movement, government officials claimed that free movement will end in March 2019, yet this has been abandoned in the current deal, with free movement continuing after Brexit till the end of the transition period, with those who arrive being able to register after the transition period is over. "Union citizens who exercised their right to reside in the United Kingdom... before the end of the transition period... [will] continue to reside there thereafter.
The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want— Michael Gove
"The last time we went through line by line and challenged quite a lot of the legal basis of these things, and we'll continue to do that... [with regards to the almost £40bn rumours] They sort of made that up"— David Davis
Crippling the economy
Official reports and figures justify that the economy will be damaged by Brexit, whether it be a no-deal or under the current plan. Official government figures estimate an decrease of up to 3.9% with the current plan, and a devastating 9.3% potential decrease with a no-deal Brexit in terms of GDP.
Although no financial figure has been given, experts from the BBC predict that 3.9% would "equate to about £100bn a year by the 2030's". that could equate to around £234bn a year with a no-deal Brexit. The Bank of England estimates that around £29 trillion of contracts would be hit by a no-deal Brexit, which could in turn cause the British pound to fall drastically in value against the Euro and US dollar, causing higher inflation and, therefore leading to reduced living standards.
The estimates do not put a cash figure on the potential impact on the economy, but independent experts have said that 3.9% of GDP would equate to about £100bn a year by the 2030s.— BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162)
No-deal Brexit- the rising possibility
The chances of a no-deal Brexit are rising, with wide criticism of Mrs May's current Brexit proposal in parliament, that has yet to be passed, and has been disliked by both the pro and anti Brexit parties. The economist reports that from July, the chances of a successful Brexit deal has fallen to less than 40%, and that within the next few months, there will be up to a 65% chance that there will be a no-deal Brexit.
A no-deal Brexit could lead to a worse crisis than the 2008 recession, with an estimated unemployment rise of 7.5% along with the GPD crash. A more threatening issue is that reports show that less than half of UK businesses have actually initiated plans for a no-deal Brexit (Mark Carney)
With the rising possibility of a no-deal Brexit, and with the effects of such an abrupt exit from the EU being proven to have long-lasting damaging effects on the UK, one must ask them self whether Brexit is worth it, and if Mrs May is the right person to fight for an effective deal that satisfies the needs of the British people.
We know from our contacts with business, others know from their contacts, that less than half of the businesses in the country have initiated their contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit. All the industries, all the infrastructure of the country, are they all ready at this point in time? As far as we can tell, the answer is no.— Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England
What happens now?
The future of the UK has a high level of uncertainty, there could be a 1997 style electoral defeat for the Tories, as suggested by Jo Johnson, possibly leading to a better deal.
There could be a second referendum, as suggested by Justine Greening, which would allow the British people to make a final vote, on the future of the UK's membership with the EU.
There finally could be a no-deal Brexit. Although we have discussed the negatives associated with a no-deal scenario, there are many benefits to a no-deal Brexit. For example, there would be no required divorce bill, fishermen would have more control, the UK will be able to immediately take back control of its borders, although this would worsen international relations, and the UK will be able to trade with whatever entity it wishes to trade with.
A no-deal Brexit is becoming more of a possibility, with parliament being divided on Brexit, and both remainders and leavers fighting against the current deal, there may not be a deal to be passed through, which would force the UK into a odd situation, where either Mrs May will have to leave and be replaced with someone who can make a better deal, or force a second referendum , or if those are not possible, Brexit would occur without a deal.
The British people are divided on Brexit, what do you think should happen, please vote in the poll below, and leave a comment on what you think should happen.
What do you think is the best option for the UK
© 2018 Thomas Menghini