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Climate Change Prediction Challenge Results
When Doc Snow and I started this debate, we had no idea where this would take us. After one month of the publishing of Doc Snow's hub, in conjunction with the COP21 Paris meetings, I decided to check in and review the results of the polls.
As with all online polls, the results are not scientific. It is just a snap shot of a small number of readers from all over the country and gauges their reactions to our presentation.
The question we try to address is How accurate are climate change predictions in 2015?
The implication of the answer has real consequences such as the Paris COP21 meeting by world leaders to address this crisis.
If the predictions by climate scientists are accurate and true, as a global unit, all of us need to sign on with all hands on deck to avert disaster.
If, however, the past predictions have fail to materialize, it is irresponsible to put the world community into such panic and commit huge resources to combat something that might or might not happen.
COP21 Paris Meeting Results
My summary of the result of this global meeting in Paris. After reading the summary of the agreement, I must admit that I am somewhat disappointed even as a skeptic. I would assume the strident supporters of climate change would also be disappointed.
- One year waiting period (pending individual countries elected officials agreement)
- Compliance of agreements are optional.
- Huge transfer of payment from Developed nations to Developing nations.
- 5 year assessment period to see how things are progressing.
The two hubs are created by myself and Doc Snow. There are three polls within the hubs. One in Doc Snow's hub and two in my hub. The final poll results after one month of publish is the following.
Here are the final results:
A total of 352 read my hub.
21 voted in the first poll and 22 voted in the second poll.
1 swayed (change opinion from skeptic to hoax).
21 stay the same (11 - believe, 5 skeptic, 5 hoax).
A surprise is that 1 of the 21 actually voted to indict the skeptic. I put it in as a joke and someone actually believe it is a good idea. Does that person believe in free speech or is it only free if it is politically correct? Is there no room for dissent?
Doc Snow's poll:
I 'm not sure how many read Doc's hub but I will assume an equal number did as instructed. However, there were only 11 that voted. 10 were for Doc's opinion and 1 dissent.
Since less than 10% of people who read the hub actually voted, it is hard to draw any sound conclusions. It is clear that most people are firm in their believes and cannot be swayed by any facts or presentation. That is what I expected before this debate started. Needless to say, Doc Snow and I are included in this camp.
Based solely on the polling results, I would have to give the upper hand to Doc Snow. Congratulations for a well written hub.
On the Forum debate, there were a total of 94 postings. Most of them are between Doc Snow and myself. There were many issues discussed and it was very fruitful from my perspective. I've learned more about the climate debate and how it is viewed from both sides. There are many side issues related to climate change such as environment protection, energy production and transportation and solar activities and public policy regarding energy credits, population and even terrorism.
Even though we were not swayed by the other, we agree to check back from time to time to see the progress of this topic. Regardless of what we do as humans, the earth and the sun has it's own path.
In our discussion on Climate Change, we came across some parallels in past events. One example is the ozone hole and another is the Y2K bug and the sinking of the Titanic. Another one is the dot com boom of the late 1990's.
In the case of the dot com, many companies jump on the band wagon of the rising internet business. Some businesses adopted the dot com logo or name and expected to gain name recognition and reap profits. They fail to materialize for the most part. What went wrong?
In the global warming studies, almost every scientific study jumped on the band wagon and adapted their research to fit the climate change scenario. There were international and national organizations that came about as a result. Government grants and private charity donations are also the source of major funding. At every turn, some problem or issues of the day are being drawn and tied to the climate change phenomenon.
The problem is not everything is about climate change. The solutions proposed may not fit the bill. In fact, some extreme proposals might do more harm than good. What should we be doing?
The answer is obvious. Let the scientists go back to study basic science. Let them improve their models so that future predictions will be more accurate. Let all countries discuss the various way to mitigate climate change. Perhaps, it is better to relocate out of sea coasts to higher grounds just as an example of a long term plan. Don't denigrate people with different opinions or ideas. Let the truth come out. Stop the influences of environmental extremist groups on climate change discussions. "If your only tool is a hammer, everything else look like a nail."
What I learned from this experience.
- It seems that many more people will read a hub but less than 10% will actually take the time to vote in the polls.
- It is hard to tell how many actually read the hubs from beginning to end and also hard to determine if people read both hubs in detail before voting.
- A popular poll is not scientific by definition.
- It is also hard to know if anyone try to vote more than once.
- A snapshot in time is never the less valuable to gauge public opinion and interest.
My conclusion is that most people are committed to their beliefs and very difficult to sway. Even with facts and charts, they will stay in their comfort zone. I do hope to raise some curiosity in some so that they will pay more attention to what they are told by climate scientists. The science is very complicated and the average person must rely on some experts. However, that does not mean we should throw common sense out the window.
- Climate Change Predictions - How Accurate Are They?
A status report for Climate Predictions in 2015.
- Climate Change Predictions--How Accurate Are They, Really?
Doc Snow - A 'challenge Hub' documenting numerous successful climate change predictions--great and small.
- A new paradigm on HubPages - A hub to hub challenge on Climate Change
A new paradigm on HubPages - A hub to hub challenge on Climate Change Discussions in the HubPages Politics and Social Issues Forum