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How Accurate Are Climate Change Predictions, Really?

Updated on August 23, 2018

Conversation and Challenge

"What would it take,” I asked fellow writer and climate skeptic jackclee, “to convince you that we have a climate problem?”

We’d been having an extended discussion in the comments of my article, Climate Change: How Much Time Do We Have? Jack responded:

Doc, the one evidence I need is for the various climate models to agree with reality. There projections has consistently over estimated the temperature rise. I just don't trust them considering how the models have such variables which are based on assumptions and the small tweak can cause large changes in the model outputs. In a few short years, we will see if these models are for real or they are contrived. Please revisit this in a few years. Take care.

Though marked by Jack’s customary civility, it was a frustrating response for me, as the article in which the conversation was occurring had gone to considerable lengths to examine how much time remains to us to take action on climate, concluding that in certain respects it is already too late. The least misleading answer to the question “How much time do we have?” was, I wrote:

None, really. We are late, and we just need to work not to get any later.

That was true, I had said:

  • Because it’s already too late for the victims of climate change to date.
  • Because climate change is insidious--as with tobacco smoking, the damage is often done before symptoms are evident.
  • Because global carbon emissions still seem to be increasing.
  • Because we are running out of time to avoid what is generally considered ‘dangerous’ warming.

So I tried to address Jack’s concern directly, citing data and discussions that show that, in fact, the observations are consistent with IPCC projections of temperature, as linked in the sidebar below.

Original Model-Observation Comparison Graphs

Source

Updated Comparison Graph, August 2016

Updated observation-model comparison, August 2016.  Graphs courtesy of RealClimate.
Updated observation-model comparison, August 2016. Graphs courtesy of RealClimate.

BEST update, to February 2017

Updated model-observation comparison, courtesy of Dr. Zeke Hausfeather of BEST.
Updated model-observation comparison, courtesy of Dr. Zeke Hausfeather of BEST. | Source

Although temperatures had been running lower than the central estimate of IPCC projections in recent years, they were, and are, still within the projected ‘envelope,’ as shown in the figure above and discussed at length in the linked articles.

Moreover, I added, there was and is a long track record in the scientific literature of successful predictions by climate models. It was collected and documented by Barton Paul Levenson (also linked in sidebar.)

I quoted Barton as follows below:

Global Climate Models have successfully predicted:

  • That the globe would warm, and about how fast, and about how much.
  • That the troposphere would warm and the stratosphere would cool.
  • That nighttime temperatures would increase more than daytime temperatures.
  • That winter temperatures would increase more than summer temperatures.
  • Polar amplification (greater temperature increase as you move toward the poles).
  • That the Arctic would warm faster than the Antarctic.
  • The magnitude (0.3 K) and duration (two years) of the cooling from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption.
  • They made a retrodiction for Last Glacial Maximum sea surface temperatures which was inconsistent with the paleo evidence, and better paleo evidence showed the models were right.
  • They predicted a trend significantly different and differently signed from UAH satellite temperatures, and then a bug was found in the satellite data.
  • The amount of water vapor feedback due to ENSO.
  • The response of southern ocean winds to the ozone hole.
  • The expansion of the Hadley cells.
  • The poleward movement of storm tracks.
  • The rising of the tropopause and the effective radiating altitude.
  • The clear sky super greenhouse effect from increased water vapor in the tropics.
  • The near constancy of relative humidity on global average.
  • That coastal upwelling of ocean water would increase.

Seventeen correct predictions? Looks like a pretty good track record to me.


Jack's response to that was indirect:

Doc, I came across this web site recently and would like you to comment -

(Jack's site is linked below.)

I will make a pledge to you.

You ask me what it would take to be convinced.

If the items in the forecast for 2015 and 2020 comes true as they projected, I will be convinced.

There were problems with that. The worst for me is that there is simply no point in convincing Jack (or anyone else, for that matter) sometime in 2020 or 2021. We need decisive action on climate, and we need it now.

But there are other issues, too. Some of the ‘predictions’ involve things that are really not all that relevant—global air conditioner sales, for instance. And what would the criteria for predictive success be? Surely it would be unrealistic to expect each and every point to come true precisely? For that matter, some of the projections are not couched very precisely. How could we decide whether or not they should be considered ‘successful’?

Noting all these problems—and, frankly, hoping to split up what looked like a daunting workload—I made a suggestion to Jack:

So, how about this: you and I make a project. We'll sort the predictions for this year (ie., predictions on the 2015 page of the site) that we want to assess--other than what I've done here, no looking ahead! (Full disclosure: I already looked at the case of Lagos, Nigeria, a bit.) Then we'll research them and compare what we find. We each write an article about it.

What do you say?

Jack accepted, and so the present article was born.

Sorting The "Predictions"

My first task was to read and sort the predictions on the 2015 ‘predictions’ page. (As of 2018 this site is unfortunately dead, so accessing the original is no longer possible.)

A tedious process of listing, winnowing, consolidation and tabulation eventually produced a more-or-less manageable list of 28 items. Fourteen of them were then eliminated ‘for cause.’ These items (with their original list positions and ‘cause for dismissal’) are listed in Table 1:

Table 1: Rejected 'Predictions'

Item Description
Original list #
Reason for rejection
Global air conditioner sales increase
2
Silly proxy. Sales can be affected by too many things besides climate. (But the projection did apparently come true, FWIW.)
Global emissions projections
4
Not actually a prediction, and a driver of climate, not a consequence of it.
Lake Mead dry by 2014, 10% chance
9
Too low a chance to count as a ‘prediction.’
Suna’a, Yemen, to run dry by 2017
11
Water situation serious, but civil war renders clear outcome relative to prediction impossible.
Various population projections
14
Not climate predictions, though growing populations do tend to use more energy.
Climate-driven migration in Nigeria
17
Civil conflict and weak governance make this impossible to assess.
Loss of climate measurement/observation capability
18
Not a climate prediction, though it makes climate study harder (and has occurred).
Rare earths shortages by 2015
21
Not a climate prediction.
Worldwide oil supply shortage of 10M barrels/day by 2015
22
Obviously a bad miss, but still not a climate prediction.
No ‘demand challenge’ to global energy supply in 2015
23
One more time—not a climate prediction.
Global energy prices to be unstable during 2000-2015.
24
Certainly, but no, not a climate prediction.
Solar energy predicted to be the least expensive source of electricity by 2016.
25
Not a climate prediction, but will comment briefly as ‘appendix.’
China to mine 25% more coal; consumption to reach 2.3 billion tons by 2015.
26
Not a climate prediction, but will comment briefly as ‘appendix.’
US agriculture suffers due to lack of pollinators, leading China to supply up to 40% of US vegetables
28
CCD—the epidemic of bee deaths—is still quite a problem, but hasn’t undermined US ag quite that badly. And the Chinese economy has grown in ways not well anticipated in 2006.
Table 1: Rejected 'Predictions'

The Rubric

That leaves 14 predictions to assess. But how to assess them? Not all were precisely quantified, and even when they were, available data aren’t necessarily sorted in such a way that direct comparisons can be made.

I fell back on classroom teaching experience to create a rubric to enable ‘grading’ of each prediction. Here’s what it looked like:

Predictions rubric

Quantitative:

  • 4—Prediction within 10%
  • 3—Prediction within 25%
  • 2—Prediction within 50%
  • 1—Correct sign
  • 0—Wrong sign

Qualitative:

  • 4—Outcome closely resembles prediction
  • 3—Outcome reasonably resembles prediction
  • 2—Outcome somewhat resembles prediction
  • 1—Outcome points toward possibility of prediction being realized, given enough time
  • 0—No resemblance between outcome and prediction

(1 additional point may be awarded in cases where outcome exceeds prediction--that is, where climate change is worse than predicted.)

With that in hand, I attacked the list of remaining predictions. Here are the results, item by item, and with a discussion of what I see as important points relating to each.

Assessing The Predictions

In all cases, the supporting web links for the prediction and outcomes will be found following the prediction and preceding the section describing the observed outcome.

Prediction #1:

Stanford computer models project a dramatic spike in extreme seasonal temperatures during the period 2010 - 2019. "The Stanford team also forecast a dramatic spike in extreme seasonal temperatures during the current decade [2010 – 2019]. Temperatures equaling the hottest season on record from 1951 to 1999 could occur four times between now [2010] and 2019 over much of the U.S., according to the researchers. The 2020s and 2030s could be even hotter, particularly in the American West."

The reality:

The US experienced significant heat waves in 2011 (“On a national basis, the heat wave was the hottest in 75 years”), 2012 (March brought “a remarkably prolonged period of record setting temperatures”), 2013 (regionally, in the Southwest “46 monthly record high temperatures were reached or broken, and 21 records for the highest overnight temperatures were reached or broken”), and 2015 (“triple-digit heat indices across a large swath of the U.S...”)

Interestingly, consideration of one obscure but telling statistic—the tally of ‘cooling degree days’—the top three hottest US summers occurred during the prediction period so far. In order, they are: 2011, 2010 and 2012.

Given that the prediction period ran from 2010 through 2019, and is thus only about half over, it is tempting to rate this prediction as a ‘5’—that is, the number of observed events matches the predicted number of events, for a ‘4’ on the quantitative rubric, plus a bonus point since there are still several years to run in the prediction period.

However, considering that there are serious definitional issues about just how geographically widespread and how long-lasting a heatwave needs to be to count, and considering my own biases, I reduced that to a ‘3’—“outcome reasonably resembles prediction.”

March 2012 heatwave.  Image courtesy NASA Earth Observatory & Wikimedia Commons.
March 2012 heatwave. Image courtesy NASA Earth Observatory & Wikimedia Commons. | Source

Prediction #2:

Britain’s Met Office projects 2014 temperature likely to be 0.3 degrees Celsius warmer than 2004. “Here is the climate forecast for the next decade [2007-2014]; although global warming will be held in check for a few years, it will come roaring back to send the mercury rising before 2014."

The reality:

Once again, definitional issues cloud the picture a bit. Using the data set associated with Britain’s Meteorology Office, HADCRUT 4, one finds that 2014 temperatures were not 0.3 C warmer than 2004, but rather 0.117 C. (NASA’s data would have made that figure 0.20 C.) Clearly, less warming than forecast. On the other hand, the shape of the temperature curve does match the description given: “...global warming will be held in check for a few years [but will] come roaring back.”

Overall, I rate that as a ‘2’—“outcome somewhat matches prediction.”

It’s worth noting, though, that this is more a test of ‘the Met’s’ experimental long-term forecasting ability than of climate modeling; though the 10-year is very long for weather, it is very short for climate. According to Santer et al., the shortest period for which one might expect to see a statistically-significant warming trend is 17 years.

Prediction #3:

By 2015 10 million acres of national forests may be at high risk of uncontrollable, catastrophic wildfires... as much as $12 billion, or about $725 million a year, may be needed to treat the 39 million acres at high risk of uncontrollable wildfire by the end of fiscal year 2015.

The reality:

By September 25 of this year, over 9 million acres had in fact burned. By the end of October (the conventional end of the ‘fire season’, the number had reached 9,407,571 acres. Clearly that is well within the 10% envelope for a ‘4’. There aren’t yet comprehensive numbers on the cost of those fires, but on August 5, a Forest Service Report informed us that “For the first time in its 110-year history, the Forest Service, part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, is spending more than 50 percent of its budget to suppress the nation's wildfires.” That was not a result of one exceptional year, but rather a consistent trend in fire-fighting costs. The Service called for a change in the funding mechanism to reflect this reality, as ever-increasing proportions of the Service budget were being absorbed by fire-fighting costs, to the detriment of other functions. (The full report link is in the sidebar.)

Rating: 4 “Prediction within 10%.”

Washington State wildfires, 2015.  Image courtesy NASA & Wikimedia Commons.
Washington State wildfires, 2015. Image courtesy NASA & Wikimedia Commons.

Prediction #4:

Water shortages projected for 36 states by 2013. Water managers in most states expect shortages of freshwater in the next decade [2003 – 2013]

The reality:

Unclear. Although the General Accounting Office publishes periodic surveys of state water manager expectations, they do not examine the actual outcomes. And among the responses of the water managers are survey responses that raise real questions about response quality. Apart from answers that were unresponsive—in 2014, the most recent such survey, Indiana and Ohio were both listed as ‘no response or uncertain’—there were instances that were simply not credible.

A notable example is provided by the states of Alabama and Georgia, which both report no concerns about freshwater availability despite the fact that they are, along with Florida, embroiled in a legal and political wrangle over the apportionment of freshwater flowing out of Lake Lanier, the sole source of most of Atlanta’s drinking water. The ‘tri-state water war’ has been before courts since 1990, and was the subject of a closed-doors meeting of all three governors as recently as June 2015.

In my view, if that is not cause for ‘concern’, then something is wrong with the definition of ‘concern’ in use. (To be completely clear, though, water problems in the Southeast are not a climate change issue—regional modeling does not project drought problems to be likely, as overall the region seems likely to become slightly wetter—but a policy and resource versus population issue.)

However, despite such concerns, the 2014 report has the number of ‘concerned’ water managers up by 4 to 40. And in the general media there were very serious water shortages reported for 7 states in 2015. (Of course, the current serious water shortages in California are too well-known to require a citation.)

Considering the information available, the outcome seemed ‘somewhat’ to resemble the prediction, for a rating of ‘2’.


Prediction #5:

Lake Mead’s water levels could drop below its water intake pipes by 2013. "Southern Nevada Water Authority chief Pat Mulroy . . . said the authority is in a race against time to complete a new [third intake] system [or third straw] to draw water from deep in Lake Mead [Hoover Dam]."


The reality:

The Water Authority won their race, but not by much. The ‘third straw’ project is now complete, at an announced cost of $817 million, with another $650 million for a new pumping station. The level didn’t quite reach crisis levels: problems start at a level of 1062 feet, and the system as it was would have been shut down at 1050. This summer saw levels of a little over 1075. That margin of less than 14 feet may not seem small to some, but for context, consider the ‘old normal’: in 1983 Lake Mead stood at 1225 feet.

The outcome reasonably resembles the prediction, for a rating of ‘3’.

Hoover Dam, 2012, with the 'bathtub ring' showing low water level.  Image by Tony Webster, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.
Hoover Dam, 2012, with the 'bathtub ring' showing low water level. Image by Tony Webster, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.

Prediction #6 (related to #5):

Hydroelectric turbines at Hoover Dam could cease generating electricity by 2013. “After 75 years of steadily cranking out electricity for California, Arizona and Nevada, the mighty turbines of the Hoover Dam could cease turning as soon as 2013, if water levels in the lake that feeds the dam don't start to recover, say water and dam experts. Under pressure from the region's growing population and years of drought, Lake Mead was down to 1,087 feet, a 54-year low, as of Wednesday [September 8, 2010]. If the lake loses 10 feet a year, as it has recently, it will soon reach 1,050 feet, the level below which the turbines can no longer run.”

The reality:

Fortunately, the loss rate since 2010 did not continue uniformly, and although there is a small net loss, the turbines still turn—albeit with a 25% power loss. It’s worth noting, though, that hydropower in California is seriously affected by the ongoing drought and water shortage, with reductions of around 60%. As a linked story puts it:

California’s drought is just four years old. But the drop in the state’s hydroelectric production has been precipitous. Hydroelectric sources are projected to contribute just 7 percent of the state’s power this year, down from 23 percent in 2011.

Overall, the outcome was judged as pointing toward a later possibility of realizing prediction, for a rating of ‘1’.


Prediction #7:

Nearly half the world’s population will live in water-stressed countries by 2015. “By 2015 nearly half the world's population — more than 3 billion people — will live in countries that are "water-stressed" — have less than 1,700 cubic meters of water per capita per year, mostly in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and northern China."

Note the wording: this does not say that half the world’s total population will be water-stressed; it says that countries accounting for half the world’s population will experience significant water stress.

The reality:

This appears to be a solid ‘hit.’ Though definitive numbers for 2015 are not available, India and China are indeed both experiencing water stress at very significant levels, as has been the case for some time, and together account for close to 50% of global population. The story in the UK's Guardian newspaper, linked, tells the wider tale.

Rating: ‘4’.

Ladakh, India, 2014.  Image by Christopher Michel, courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
Ladakh, India, 2014. Image by Christopher Michel, courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.

Prediction #8 (related to #7):

By 2015 a number of developing countries will be unable to maintain their levels of irrigated agriculture. “In the developing world, 80 percent of water usage goes into agriculture, a proportion that is not sustainable; and in 2015 a number of developing countries will be unable to maintain their levels of irrigated agriculture...”

(This comes from the same 2000 report as item #7, and is not linked again.)

The reality:

The situation for irrigation is bad and getting worse in both India and China. Additionally, Africa has serious problems, though these arise from a whole network of reasons, from climate change to population growth to poor policy and migration.

Rating: ‘4’.

Prediction #9:

Mt. Kilimanjaro’s remaining ice fields likely to disappear between 2015 and 2020... if current climatological conditions persist, the remaining ice fields are likely to disappear between 2015 and 2020.

The reality:

Thankfully, ‘the snows of Kilimanjaro’ currently seem unlikely to disappear any time soon. This prediction would receive a clear zero, except for one thing: attention to the issue, prompted by the possibility that the prediction could come true, may have been crucial.

Initially, the observed loss of ice mass on Kilimanjaro’s summit was ascribed more or less directly to global warming. But further analysis showed that the loss was probably due to less precipitation falling at the summit, and that in turn this was not so much due to global changes, but to more local ones: deforestation on Kilimanjaro’s massive slopes had altered the local water cycle. Replanting those slopes seems to have helped increase precipitation, slowing (though not halting) ice loss:

...the massive tree planting around the mount Kilimanjaro could have been mitigated the ripple effects of the global warming.

Alarmed by the...Thompson study, way back in 2006, Tanzania President Jakaya Kikwete imposed a total ban on tree harvesting in Kilimanjaro region in a move aimed to halt catastrophic environmental degradation, including melting of ice on Mount Kilimanjaro.

As a result of the measures, the forest cover on the mount Kilimanjaro is slowly, but surely becoming thick.

Experts say the forests on Kilimanjaro's lower slopes absorb moisture from the cloud hovering near the peak, and in turn nourish flora and fauna below...

Given that ice loss has not been completely arrested and that warming continues, the outcome points toward a possibility that the prediction may become true in time, which rates a ‘1’.


Aerial view of Kilimanjaro, showing ice fields on Kibo peak.  Image by clem23, courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
Aerial view of Kilimanjaro, showing ice fields on Kibo peak. Image by clem23, courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.

Prediction #10:

Computer model forecasts taking into account sea ice thinning and albedo effects project an ice-free summer Arctic Ocean between 2010-2015. “The Arctic Ocean could be free of ice in the summer as soon as 2010 or 2015 -- something that hasn't happened for more than a million years, according to a leading polar researcher. Louis Fortier, scientific director of ArcticNet, a Canadian research network, said the sea ice is melting faster than predicted by models created by international teams of scientists, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They had forecast the Arctic Ocean could be free of summer ice as early as 2050.”

But this 'prediction' needs more context. Note what is said in this story—(so-called) ‘IPCC models’ at that point (November, 2007) had been estimating that the Arctic sea ice would likely be gone at the annual minimum in September ‘as early as 2050’, but a new regional model by Dr. Maslowski, of the US Naval Observatory, had projected that a much earlier outcome was possible.

Note, too, that the 2007 minimum thoroughly shocked experts; they had been concerned by the record low of 5.6 million square kilometers (mean value for the month of September). Prior to 1990, only once had that value dropped below 7 million square kilometers, and never had it broken through 6 million square kilometers. But in 2007, the disturbing record clocked in 2005 was obliterated by a stunning 4.3 million square kilometer mean September extent--a full 1.3 million kilometers less than the 2005 record (roughly 23% lower). Dr. Fortier’s comment that ‘...it's probably going to happen even faster than that” should be read in the context of the shock the 2007 minimum provided.

Graph courtesy Dr. Larry Hamilton.
Graph courtesy Dr. Larry Hamilton.

It should also be noted that the newspaper story is almost certainly wrong in one respect. Though the identity of the ‘computer models’ referred to is never given in the story, it is undoubtedly the regional modeling of Dr. Wieslaw Maslowski, of the US Naval Observatory, as reported in the BBC story linked above.

Dr. Maslowski is directly quoted in another story from the same time:

Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover.

So the projection, according to the scientist who made it, should be regarded as a “lower bound”, and the time frame is not 2010-2015, as the story had it, but 2013-2019. All that clarified, we're ready to look at the outcome.


The reality:

Dr. Fortier was wrong.

But consider the continuing decline of the sea ice—after 2007, the September mean has never again risen above 2005 levels. And in 2012 the September mean extent crashed to just 3.6 million square kilometers. (September of this month saw the fourth-lowest value in the record, with a mean of just 4.6 million.)

In that context, it is not so clear that Dr. Maslowski was wrong. The window for his ‘lower bound’ estimate runs until 2019.

The IPCC was wrong, too, or so it appears at this juncture. In 2007, they thought that we had until 2050 or so before the first ice-free Arctic summer. The sea ice crash we have seen since then makes that scenario highly unlikely; currently observers such as the National Snow and Ice Center’s Dr. Walt Serreze now think the likely year is sometime around 2030.

Dr. Fortier gets a ‘1’, even though the mainstream science would do better.

Eko-Atlantic City under construction, Lagos, Nigeria, 2011.  Image by omar 180, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.
Eko-Atlantic City under construction, Lagos, Nigeria, 2011. Image by omar 180, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.

Prediction #11:

Lagos, Nigeria projected to be at risk from sea level rise. "Nigeria will suffer from climate-induced drought, desertification, and sea level rise... Lagos, the capital, is one of the West African coastal megacities [along with Alexandria, Egypt] that the IPCC identifies as at risk from sea level rise by 2015.”

The reality:

Again, solid, comparable information is hard to come by, and the prediction itself is not very specific. But it is clear that Lagos is facing increased flooding, forming a serious threat to its infrastructure:

An increasingly important threat to the high population and large concentration of residential, industrial, commercial and urban infrastructure systems in Africa’s coastal megacity of Lagos is flooding. Over the past decade, flooding in Lagos has increased significantly, drawing increasing attention to the need for flood risk management.

It’s not as clear what proportion of this risk proceeds from sea level rise, as identified in the prediction, and what proportion from extreme precipitation and increasing storm surge (both expected consequences of climate change, in general) or from other causes, such as land subsidence (which can be either natural or man-made, and which results in localized ‘relative sea level rise.’)

However, it is noteworthy that the there’s a mega-project, underway since 2003 and now said to be nearing completion, intended to protect the city from sea-level rise—an 8-kilometer barrier dubbed the ‘Great Wall of Lagos.’ Not only that, an artificial island will be the site of a glittering new city center, financed entirely by private investment, and intended to become the “Hong Kong of Africa”. As usual, that is linked above, together with another, less enthusiastic take on the project. Not yet reality, but perhaps worth noting in passing, is that serious, widespread issues with both desertification and sea level rise continue to be projected for Africa.

Overall rating: ‘3’.

Adelie penguins.  Image by Jerzy Strzelecki, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.
Adelie penguins. Image by Jerzy Strzelecki, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.

Prediction #12:

Projected extinction of Adélie penguin population around Palmer Station, Antarctica. “A small residual population [Adélie penguins] on Humble Island [near Palmer Station, Antarctica] may survive the climatic shift down the peninsula, [seabird ecologist Bill Fraser of the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research (PAL LTER) project] guessed, but the overall prognosis is that in the next decade the Adélies around Palmer will be gone. ‘Their numbers are in catastrophic decline,’ Fraser said.”

(Unfortunately, the original link appears to be dead, and so is not linked.)

The reality:

The Adelies are not gone yet, though the decline in population continues. Chinstrap and Gentoo penguins, which tolerate warmer temperature better, have been moving in in large numbers.

...it’s been a shock to see how drastically Adelie penguins have declined while gentoos have increased in the last 20 years.

I have linked some of the baseline research, from 1998, and including as one author Dr. Bill Fraser, who was mentioned in the prediction.

It would be great to see some hard numbers on the Adelie population of Palmer Station, to get a better feeling for how the trends are playing out. But it appears that the prediction is somewhere in the midrange: 2018 is probably too aggressive, but all sources discussing the population agree that the species is in trouble in the Palmer Station area.

Rating: ‘3’, “Outcome reasonably resembles prediction.”


Update on Adelie penguins, 7/2/16

A recent article on the prognosis for Adelie penguins, not just around Palmer Station, but around the whole Antarctic continent, stated that, as of 2013, the Palmer Station population had been reduced by about 80%.

The outlook for the species generally is not great:

by 2099, our projections suggest 78% to 51% (mean 58%) of colonies could experience declines, containing 64% to 39% (mean 46%) of the current abundance.

Luckily, while Adelies look to be vulnerable to decline, there are areas projected to serve as 'refugia', so complete extinction doesn't appear to be a risk--over the course of this century, at least. Of course, under any 'business as usual' scenario, warming will not stop magically when the 22nd century arrives.

Prediction #13:

Antarctic ozone hole will continue to expand through 2015. “Some existing agreements, even when implemented, will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they were designed to address. The Montreal Protocol is on track to restore the stratospheric ozone layer over the next 50 years. Nevertheless, the seasonal Antarctic ozone hole will expand for the next two decades [2000-2020] — increasing the risk of skin cancer in countries like Australia, Argentina, and Chile—because of the long lag time between emission reductions and atmospheric effects.”

(The source for this prediction is the same as #11, above, and is not re-linked.)

This is not really a climate prediction, either, but I consider it nevertheless because it bears in several ways on the current topic, aside from the fact that it was included on the website. Essentially, it’s an important environmental issue involving science, global policy, and numerical modeling of atmospheric processes, and one in which we can observe the outcome of an international treaty intended to mitigate human-induced damage to the atmosphere.

The reality:

Essentially, ozone loss has gradually stabilized since implementation of the Montreal Protocol. The lowest 30-day extent occurred in 2006, but this year saw the single largest one-day ozone hole on the record. Despite that, some thickening of the ozone layer has been observed, and scientific observers believe that recovery of the layer may have begun.

Rating: ‘4’.

Maps courtesy of DLR (German Aerospace Center.)
Maps courtesy of DLR (German Aerospace Center.) | Source

14. The prediction:

By 2015 the cost in lost income of degraded coral reefs is projected to reach several hundred million dollars annually.

The reality:

Again, one might wish for better numbers. But the worldwide decline of coral reefs is so serious as to merit an entire chapter in Elizabeth Kolbert’s Pulitzer-winning book, The Sixth Extinction, and NOAA officials warned last month of a third-ever global-scale coral-bleaching event:

This bleaching event, which began in the north Pacific in summer 2014 and expanded to the south Pacific and Indian oceans in 2015, is hitting U.S. coral reefs disproportionately hard. NOAA estimates that by the end of 2015, almost 95 percent of U.S. coral reefs will have been exposed to ocean conditions that can cause corals to bleach.

The biggest risk right now is to the Hawaiian Islands, where bleaching is intensifying and is expected to continue for at least another month. Areas at risk in the Caribbean in coming weeks include Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, and from the U.S. Virgin Islands south into the Leeward and Windward islands.

The next concern is the further impact of the strong El Niño, which climate models indicates will cause bleaching in the Indian and southeastern Pacific Oceans after the new year. This may cause bleaching to spread globally again in 2016.

Earlier, reported estimates put the annual value at risk at about $30 billion, and stated that the Caribbean might have lost 80% of its coral. This estimate dates from 2002, however, and so does not ‘confirm’ the scale of contemporary losses.

Considering the available information, while the value at risk remains uncertain, the estimates of total value imply that the prediction’s losses would amount to a few per cent of the total value. Given that loss rates are very high, it would seem to follow that the outcomes we see are ‘closely resembling the prediction,’ which would merit a rating of ‘4’.

Update, 3/19/17

The "third coral bleaching event" mentioned did indeed continue in 2016, and indeed intensified as the world saw a record-warm year on the strength of the ongoing anthropogenic warming trend in combination with an El Nino nearly as strong as that of 1997-98. Unfortunately, it appears to be continuing in 2017, as global temperatures have remained quite warm even after the El Nino ended.

The world has lost roughly half its coral reefs in the last 30 years. Scientists are now scrambling to ensure that at least a fraction of these unique ecosystems survives beyond the next three decades. The health of the planet depends on it: Coral reefs support a quarter of all marine species, as well as half a billion people around the world.

"This isn't something that's going to happen 100 years from now. We're losing them right now," said marine biologist Julia Baum of Canada's University of Victoria. "We're losing them really quickly, much more quickly than I think any of us ever could have imagined."

Even if the world could halt global warming now, scientists still expect that more than 90 per cent of corals will die by 2050. Without drastic intervention, we risk losing them all.


Israeli corals near Eilat, at the head of the Gulf of Aqaba.  Image by Ludwig14, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.
Israeli corals near Eilat, at the head of the Gulf of Aqaba. Image by Ludwig14, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.

Table of prediction ratings

Item Description
Points
Comments
US heat weaves, 2010-2019
3
Rating reduced due to definitional questions.
UK 2014 temperature
2
Underpredicted; technically weather, not climate
US Wildfire
4
 
US water shortages
2
Poor information on outcomes
Lake Mead water levels
3
$1.4 billion spent on remediation
Hoover Dam hydro generation
1
 
Global water stress
4
Definitive numbers not yet available
Agricultural irrigation at risk
4
 
Snows of Kilimanjaro
1
Human response to trend altered outcome
Louis Fortier over predicts ice-free Arctic
1
Mainstream climate science would do much better than Fortier
Lagos at risk for sea level rise
3
Large expenditures on mitigation of risk
Palmer Station Adelies extinct
3
 
Antarctic ozone hole extent
4
Model predictions appear to be accurate
Coral bleaching costs
4
Economic costs hard to document, but extent of coral loss is clear
Total points
39/56
 

How do you interpret those numbers? In school, that would likely be a D, or perhaps a C-; a pass, to be sure, but nothing to brag about.

But those numbers aren't grades. Consider that:

  • The most frequent rating was 4, the highest possible;
  • The least frequent rating was 0, which was never awarded;
  • The highest rating was given the same number of times (5) as the two lowest ratings combined.

Jack picked his predictions on this basis:

Doc, you missed my point about the far reaching projections of this site. The point is they are meant to scare and not based on anything real.

I think this exercise shows that however they may have been meant, they are indeed based on reality.

Rating
Times awarded
Points resulting
4
5
20
3
4
12
2
2
4
1
3
3
0
0
0
Totals
14
39

Jack's "Big Three" Predictions--Temperature

I'm going to take the privilege of the tardy--for Jack published his Hub roughly six weeks before I wrote these words--and comment briefly on the three predictions that he addresses there.

1. Temperature increase. In part, I've already addressed this issue above when I cited the various model-observation comparisons that have been made. But let's get to the nitty-gritty.

Jack quotes Jim Hansen (not Michael Mann and Jim Hansen; in 1988, the former was still a humble physics undergrad at Yale):

If the current pace of the buildup of these gases continues, the effect is likely to be a warming of 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit from the year 2025 to 2050, according to these projections. This rise in temperature is not expected to be uniform around the globe but to be greater in the higher latitudes, reaching as much as 20 degrees, and lower at the Equator.

How does this stack up against reality? Jack doesn't really examine that, citing only a Daily Caller report on a single study which concluded that observed warming so far did not exceed natural variability over the last 8,000 years. But that says nothing about the prediction that was made.

But it's not a difficult question to answer: since 1988, the GISTEMP temperature record shows a total warming of 0.45 degrees Celsius, according to a standard 'least-squares' regression, or about 0.16 degrees C per decade. If we presume that warming continues at that same rate until 2025, then we would see 0.56 C; for 2050, that would be 0.96 C. What's that in Fahrenheit? Well, rounding up to 1 C for simplicity, that would be 1.67 degrees F, or a little more than half the 1988 estimate.

But before we conclude that climate science and global warming are nothing but bunk, perhaps we should look at what more recent science has to say? After all, 1988 was a long time ago in terms of scientific progress. And what more recent work has to say, too, is not difficult to answer, for the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) put forward estimates of future warming in each of its Assessment Reports to date.

The first came in 1990, and in line with the 1988 quote estimated a warming rate of 0.25 C per decade. Multiplying by the six decades to 2050, one reaches 1.5 C total warming, or 2.7 F, reasonably close to Hansen's lower bound. But by the Second AR, in 1995, new work had reduced that number to just 0.14 degrees per decade. Since that is 2.7 decades, we'd expect to see roughly 0.38 C--quite close to the 0.45 we've actually observed. By the time of TAR (2000) the warming rate had crept up to 0.16 C, and by AR4 in 2007, the best estimate had become 0.18 C. Clearly, work that is no more than 2 decades old is pretty close to reality in estimating global mean surface temperature.

GISTEMP record with trend.  Graph by author, using Woodfortrees.org online tool.
GISTEMP record with trend. Graph by author, using Woodfortrees.org online tool.

2015 Update

2015, powered by a strong El Nino, continues to set temperature records. With October data now in for several of the major datasets, the year is almost certain to set new records for warmest on record. As the Washington Post reports:

Earlier this month, Britain’s weather service, the Met Office, and NASA both stated that the Earth’s average temperature is likely to rise 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time by the end of this year. This milestone is significant since it marks the halfway point to two degrees Celsius, the internationally accepted limit for avoiding the worst consequences of climate change.

More specifically, GISTEMP reported an October anomaly value of 1.04 C, the warmest monthly anomaly in their record, and the first to exceed a degree Celsius. (HADCRUT4 has not yet released their October value; September clocked in at 1.03 C, though their baseline is slightly different from GISTEMP and thus the numbers are not directly comparable.) The Japanese Met Office also reported a record-warm October. Even the UAH satellite record reported their warmest October ever, as reported by the 'skeptic' website Watt's Up With That.

Though there was never any statistical evidence that a true 'pause' in warming was taking place, the slowdown in warming rate seen through much of the 00s has definitively come to an end.

2018 Update

With the hindsight afforded by several more years' passing, we know know that 2015 was again supplanted as record-warm by 2016. Powered by a significant El Nino event in addition to the ongoing observed warming trend, that year was far and away the warmest in the instrumental record.


The surprise has been the failure to see much cooling as that El Nino waned. (The last comparable event in 1998 saw a marked cooling before temperatures once again rebounded.) In NASA's GISTEMP record, for example, 2017 actually surpassed 2015 to become the second-warmest year ever. And the current year, which began with a 'cooling' La Nina event, is on track to be 3rd warmest ever, and will be the warmest La Nina year ever.

Jack's "Big Three" Predictions--Sea Level

2. Sea Level Rise (SLR). Jack quotes a 1988 report from the World Conservation Union, which states:

With the B-a-U [Business as Usual] Scenario, the best-estimate is that MSL [Mean Sea Level] will be 18 cm higher than today by the year 2030, with an uncertainty of 8-29 cm.

Jack doesn't examine that prediction, instead offering a graph showing SLR to date, together with the IPCC prediction with 3 unattributed 'expert' opinions. The IPCC prediction is for 12 inches of SLR, while the extrapolated present-day trend gives an estimate of 10.5 inches at that time. That's actually a pretty good fit; there is some suggestion of an acceleration in the record, though it is not statistically conclusive, and it wouldn't take much acceleration of SLR to reach the IPCC estimate. The other opinions are much higher--suspiciously located at 2 feet, 3 feet, and 4 feet, respectively.

One could look at the record to try and decipher who predicted what, and what the assumptions and margins of error associated with those projections might have been. However, I promised to be brief, so I'll simply compare the prediction quoted above with the record since 1988. And, as is turns out, SLR during the satellite period (1993-present) amounts to about 8 centimeters. Allowing for the 5 years previous to 1993 and the 15 years until 2030, that trend, extrapolated, would give approximately 16 cm of SLR--in good agreement with the 18 cm in the Conservation Union estimate.

U. of Colorado Sea Level Rise satellite data time series.
U. of Colorado Sea Level Rise satellite data time series. | Source

2018 Sea level update

In editing this Hub, I somewhat randomly noticed a curious thing in Jack's source, the 1990 World Conservation Union report. Buried in the text was this interesting passage:

With the B-a-U [Business as Usual] scenario, the best-estimate is that MSL [mean sea level] will be 18cm higher than today by the year 2030, with a range of uncertainty of 8-29 cm. The range reflects uncertainties in both the warming and the contributing factors to sea level. Most of the future rise comes from oceanic thermal expansion and glacier melt; the Antarctic ice sheet is likely to gain in mass and thus slightly decrease MSL, due to increased precipitation and hence greater accumulation rates.

--Environmental Implications of Global Change, 18th session of the General Assembly of The World Conservation Union, Perth, Australia, 1990.

18 centimeters above the 1990 level by 2030? How does that prediction seem to be coming along?

So I found an updated version of the combined satellite sea level record, shown below.

Combined satellite MSL record, per NASA (JPL)
Combined satellite MSL record, per NASA (JPL) | Source

Extrapolating backward from the beginning of the record in 1993 (using the observed trend rate of 3.22 mm/century), we can conclude that the rise to date has been roughly 100 millimeters (or 10 centimeters). Extrapolating forward 13 years, we find:

13 years x 3.22mm/year = ~42 mm (future rise)

+ 100 mm (observed rise)

= 14.2 cm (total estimated rise)

14.2 cm is quite close to the best estimate, and certainly well within the prediction interval of 8-29 cm. Add to that the facts that 1) the greenhouse forcings from 1990 to present turned out to be somewhat less than 'B-a-U', and 2) SLR is likely to accelerate as the increasing mean surface temperature is likely to increase glacier mass loss rates, the forecast accuracy is probably even better than the raw extrapolated number would indicate.

Jack's "Big Three" Predictions--Hurricanes

3. Hurricane frequency & intensity. Jack doesn't cite a specific source here, simply asserting that:

Another projection is that global warming will lead to drastic increases in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes.

Against this, he poses a reality in which:

1) "In the last 10 years, there has not been a category 3 or greater hurricane making land fall in the US", and

2) 'Category 5 storms happened in 1938 and 1960, before any global warming awareness.' (The latter is paraphrased, not an exact quote. Compare Jack's Hub.)

As it turns out, he is half right--cyclone intensity is expected to increase. The IPCC says almost nothing substantive about hurricanes until AR4 in 2007. Prior to that, the Third Assessment Report just says that one study:

…suggested that only small changes in the tropical cyclone frequencies would occur...

It goes on to offer estimates of a 10% increase for the Northern Hemisphere, and a 5% decrease in the Southern Hemisphere.

AR4, however, had much more to say, due to the improvement of numerical modeling capabilities:

...for a future warmer climate, coarse-resolution models show few consistent changes in tropical cyclones, with results dependent on the model, although those models do show a consistent increase in precipitation intensity in future storms. Higher-resolution models that more credibly simulate tropical cyclones project some consistent increase in peak wind intensities, but a more consistent projected increase in mean and peak precipitation intensities in future tropical cyclones. There is also a less certain possibility of a decrease in the number of relatively weak tropical cyclones, increased numbers of intense tropical cyclones and a global decrease in total numbers of tropical cyclones. [Emphasis mine.]

Yes, you read that right. Insofar as Jack's reality tests mean anything at all, they agree with the AR4 projection of fewer cyclones overall. Cyclone intensity will increase, according to climate projections, but frequency will probably decrease.

It's pretty doubtful that Jack's tests do mean much, though; why compare the category of 'global hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones' to 'Category 3 storms making US landfall?' Most cyclones do not make landfall, even in the Atlantic basin, where storm tracks make landfall more likely than in the Pacific or Indian basins. Obviously, there will be far, far fewer Cat 3 storms making US landfalls, rendering statistical comparisons meaningless. And the projections are mostly referenced to 2100, meaning that changes up to 2015 are unlikely to be noticeable, anyway. We wouldn't expect to see much, if any, difference just yet.

...And in conclusion--

So, let's sum up.

1) Regarding Jack's 'big three':

  • Observed temperature rises are in good agreement with models, and there is no evidence for the supposed 'pause' because its timespan is such that one would not expect to see statistically significant warming anyway.
  • Sea level rise is quite in line with the prediction Jack offered.
  • Jack was mistaken about what the IPCC actually predicted about tropical cyclones, leading his only evidence 'disproving' the IPCC claim actually to support it!

2) Regarding the more granular predictions Jack linked from the climate predictions site, they proved a more mixed bag. But as my detailed examination above shows, they are much more right than wrong overall.

3) Regarding Barton Paul Levenson's successful model predictions, the seventeen instances he cites and documents on his site stand unchallenged.

But the biggest picture 'prediction' remains that implicitly made by Roger Revelle and Hans Suess in 1957:

Where do you stand on the evidence about successful climate change predictions?

See results

Appendix

Solar power: In 2008 Rhone Resch, of the Solar Energy Industries Association, predicted that "... by 2016, we expect solar energy to be the least expensive source of electricity for consumers." It hasn't, quite, but has come much closer than most people realize. Solar energy is now about 70% cheaper than at the time of the prediction, and is roughly 1% of what it was in the 1970s. Around the world, solar energy projects are being bid in at prices comparable to fossil fuel generation such as coal and gas. For instance, in the summer of 2015, Nevada Power sought approval for two new solar parks. If approved,

The utility will be paying USD 46.00 per MWh for the output of SunPower’s Boulder Solar park and just USD 38.70/MWh for power from First Solar Inc’s Playa Solar 2 farm.

That's compared with average US residential electricity prices of 121/MWh.

Wind is already cheaper on average than new coal generation capacity, and like solar does not impose external costs associated with air pollution. These costs come in the form of increased incidences of respiratory diseases, including asthma, bringing economic losses for medical treatment and lost productivity.

Concerns expressed by Jack and others about 'expensive' renewable energy are quite simply outdated.

Chinese coal: In 1995, China's coal consumption was projected to reach 2.3 billion tons by 2015. By 2010, that projection had increased to 3.6 billion tons. The reality?

The 1995 projection missed badly, and even the 2010 projection was on the low side: actual consumption in 2014 was given as 3.87 billion tons--and at that, the number was down 2.5% from 2013. And more recently, it has been shown that those numbers were too low; as reported by the New York Times, the actual number for 2013 was 4.2 billion tons.

The good news, however, is that China has committed to ending the growth of carbon emissions, and has already taken dramatic steps to do so, from building the world's foremost solar manufacturing capability, and the world's largest renewable energy capacity, to creating a national carbon market to appropriately price the true costs of carbon emissions.

One is reminded of the meme--correct or not, I do not know--that the Chinese character for 'crisis' combines the characters 'danger' and 'opportunity.'

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    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      8 days ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Forgive me here, Jack, I'm going to speak bluntly.

      The IPCC isn't a 'political organization,' no matter how often you're told otherwise. There's a tiny standing staff, housed with the WMO, but all the writing is done by volunteers, who are always career scientists with expertise in the relevant fields, and their brief is to summarize the state of the current professional literature. This they do--quite visibly, as everything in any of the reports is cited to published literature, the vast majority of it peer-reviewed. (And all of WG I bibliography is peer-reviewed.)

      There is no 'tax' that will redistribute global wealth, nor is one envisioned. There are policies agreed by the member nations that intend to help less developed nations develop their economies. None of these policies significantly harm the economies donating, for the simple reason that contributions are voluntary; there is no mechanism for coercing payment. That is explicitly true under Paris, as well.

      And it's not true that 'none of the proposals would reduce global temperature significantly.' The Paris Accord would reduce projected warming from a probable 5 C--that's what we are currently on track for, if we don't implement the Paris pledges--to a probable 3 C. And that's highly significant, though inadequate. I know that Mr. Trump claimed otherwise when he announced the US pullout, but that is just another of the untrue things he has said. When people argue this point, they usually do sleight of hand, such as dividing the total cooling effect by their nation's contribution to emissions, to 'prove' that their country isn't 'the problem.' Obviously, the whole point is to mitigate *all* national emissions, by the best methods each nation can arrive at. (IIRC, the sleight of hand in the Trump speech was of a different type--the seemingly small reduction in warming was due to excluding the effects all previous IPCC agreements. That's equally bogus, since the whole point of Paris was to reach a master agreement that incorporated those previous efforts.)

      As for solutions, SR 1.5 approaches that question by laying out potentially workable 'pathways' that in simulations lead to warming below the relevant target (1.5 or 2 C, as the case may be.)

      It is for the member states of UNFCCC to decide what is the 'best way,' given their national circumstances. Not the IPCC. Not even the UNFCCC. It really is up to the nations and their political processes to decide on the best way forward. Obviously, solutions exist within a social and technological reality that will influence which are most effective, and obviously nations will influence one another in myriad ways as the history unfolds.

      As for 'natural or man-made', right now no-one is trying to deal with natural climate change, because the human signal is dominating climate over time. If we are able to control man-made warming, it may be that we later achieve finer control and are able to help modulate undesirable natural forcings. For example, over long spans of time, if we weather the current crisis (no pun intended there!) then we may be in a position to avoid future glaciations by stabilizing atmospheric CO2, or even by advanced solar radiation management.

      But that is very far in the future. Right now, the trick is to learn, *fast*, how to run a technologically advanced civilization without crashing the planetary biosphere.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      8 days ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc, Thanks for the explanation. I will dig deeper but as I alluded to before, the UN and IPCC is a political organization. They are not interested in real science or how best to mitigate climate change. They are environmentalist extremist who wants to level the field by income redistribution. The tax will take from the rich countries and pay the poor countries. The fact that none of the proposals would reduce global temperature significantly should give everyone pause.

      Just what solution are they proposing? And is that the best way to deal with climate change, natural or man-made?

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      8 days ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Typo in previous: SR 1.5 Chapter *5*, not *15*. (There is no Chapter 15.)

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      8 days ago from Camden, South Carolina

      The Kelley article is a mess. While it is true that a new report came out Monday on the question of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees rather than 2 degrees, it is absolutely not true that this is not reflective of new knowledge. Many people have had concerns about the realism of the 2-degree benchmark for quite a while, and more vulnerable nations have been pushing for 1.5 rather than 2. This culminated in recognition of the desirability of a 1.5 limit in the Paris Accord language, even as 2 C remained the 'official' target, and as a result the IPCC was invited to report on how feasible and how effective such a target would be.

      Short version: it is now really hard to limit warming to 1.5 C--basically technically possible, but probably not from a standpoint of practical politics. Nevertheless, it would be very desirable to do so--to mention just the single most drastic difference, the report estimates that 1.5 would limit coral loss to about 30%, whereas 2 C will probably mean near-total elimination of coral reef coverage worldwide. Many other impacts (crop productivity, public heatlh, infrastructure loss) would be significantly lessened with 1.5 C as well, to the huge benefit of humanity.

      It is also absolutely not true that the focus on 1.5 C results from a failure of warming to manifest, as Ms. Kelly alleges, since as I've shown repeatedly, warming rates seen are consistent with what science has projected since *at least* the Third Assessment Report of 2001. (Actually, I think the SAR in the 90s already had it pretty much nailed, but that's OTOH and I'm not going to check right now.)

      It is absolutely not true that the report says that we will 'all die' in 2040, either. The report actually says that for almost all potential pathways to achieve 1.5 C, we need to achieve CO2 net-neutral emissions by 2050, and significant reductions much sooner. Nor does it say that if we fail to do so, we'll all die.

      If you'd like to see what the report actually *does* say, you can read it here:

      https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/sr15/sr15_...

      It's not easy reading, by any means, but if you try it, you'll find a lot of things familiar, because I've been reporting the same results here as they've become available.

      A nit: there's a comment that "(The [IPSS], however, continues its unscientific and fearmongering objection to the cleanest form of energy, nuclear power.)" To get to the root of that, you have to follow three links which go back to the special report, Chapter 15. This 'fearmongering' appears to reflect a single sentence:

      "Nuclear energy, the share of which increases in most of the 1.5ºC-compatible pathways (see Chapter 2, Section 2.4.2.1), can increase the risks of proliferation (SDG 16), have negative environmental effects (e.g., for water use, SDG 6), and have mixed effects for human health when replacing fossil fuels (SDGs 7 and 3) (see Table 5.2)."

      So, let me translate that into plainer English:

      "Nuclear power will probably play a role in decarbonizing energy, but we have to be careful to avoid nuclear proliferation and to manage adverse environmental and health impacts."

      I don't know if you see that as "fear-mongering", but I sure don't. By contrast, consider Kelly's phrase "capricious sources of renewable energy".

      There's lots more to criticize, but to keep it brief, finally let me point out yet again that the IPCC doesn't do policy, which means that it doesn't set "goalposts." Policy is the result of practical politics, which is the bailiwick of the UNFCCC--the so-called "framework treaty." It's the UNFCC which directs the IPCC, a purely advisory body, and that includes the 'invitation' to produce SR 1.5 in the first place. What is done rests with the UNFCCC; so you won't find anything in SR 1.5 prescribing what the UNFCCC should do--just a description of what the choices might mean.

      As to the Lindzen, it's much more sophisticated. The first half or so is pretty unexceptionable, but then it goes off the rails into the seriously misleading--for instance, the dismissal of Arctic sea ice loss because the estimates of the rate of ice loss have been historically poorly-constrained, ignoring the patent fact that the qualitative prediction has been abundantly validated. (And, for that matter, the fact that most of the ice-loss rate estimates have been far too low!)

      I could critique it in detail, but it would be a lengthier and more tedious exercise than either of us would appreciate, I think.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      10 days ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc, is this true?

      This article claims the IPCC has changed the goal post...

      https://amgreatness.com/2018/10/10/climate-changes...

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      10 days ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc, what do you think of this article -

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/09/richard-lin...

      It summarizes for me the state of affairs with climate change science.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 weeks ago from Camden, South Carolina

      "In a hot day, with the AC blasting, and other issues, it is easy to use up the battery."

      I need to speak with some humility here, but it's my understanding that the AC draws from 2-5 kW, whereas the battery size is 75-100 kWh. Driving at 60 mph, the X would exhaust its charge completely in something like 4-5 hours, which implies power consumption of ~ 20 kW, if I haven't made another silly error in calculation. So sitting stalled in traffic, you should be drawing no more than about 30% of the draw at highway speed, and possibly as little as 15%. (I'm allowing 5% for miscellaneous loads, such as audio and operating system.)

      So certainly traffic delay is something to be aware of, and take into consideration, but is it really quite as limiting as your niece allows it to be?

      Partly it's a matter of temperament, of course. Just the other day, I pumped 14+ gallons into the nominally 14-gallon tank of the Forester!--there's a gallon-plus reserve, but I don't know just how big the 'plus' is, as I've never yet run it truly dry. But perhaps your niece would not have allowed herself to cut it quite that close. (And women have reason to be more careful than men about such things, to be fair.)

      "This anxiety on the part of electric cars is real."

      Yes, certainly. But perhaps not as significant as novelty makes it; I can't help but wonder if it will diminish with practical familiarity. As an analogy, I recall being quite anxious about the reliability of ATMs when they first came into service. Now, of course, no-one thinks even once about using them.

      "Most people like my nephew, who just got a Model 3, use it strictly for commute to work which is only 20 miles each way. He has a gas car for long range driving."

      I don't know about 'most people.' There's a spectrum, from the 'commute only' folks like your nephew, to the cross-country Tesla trippers, which are a tribe (not sure how numerous!). I expect the distribution is normal-ish, meaning that most owners are in the middle somewhere.

      As an example, if I had an EV now, I'd be very comfortable driving it from here to, say, downtown Atlanta (259 miles). I wouldn't even have to change my pattern for the drive itself, as we nearly always stop for a brief break in North Augusta, SC. The only thing I'd need to do is know where the charging stations are nearby. (It looks as if 5 are very convenient to my route, though all 5 are across the river on the Georgia side.)

      https://evstationslocal.com/states/georgia/30999/

      On the other hand, if I were doing an extended road trip, I might still want to use a gasmobile for now--by preference, a nice hybrid.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 weeks ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Ack! Did you spot the gratuitous error? It's really only 5-6 doublings; not sure how I screwed that up!

      So, 8.28 years, not 11.04. Shocking, that the erroneous number was too conservative! But this is still just a very rough estimate anyway, so the big picture probably shouldn't alter much from the correction.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      2 weeks ago from Yorktown NY

      Just to follow up. My niece is understandable. If you know LA traffic, it is always bad.You can be stuck in traffic for hours... Those estimate of mileage is under normal conditions. In a hot day, with the AC blasting, and other issues, it is easy to use up the battery. This anxiety on the part of electric cars is real. Most people like my nephew, who just got a Model 3, use it strictly for commute to work which is only 20 miles each way. He has a gas car for long range driving.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 weeks ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Yes. And I'm glad you saw that; such straightforward metrics have a way of getting lost in the coverage, which has too often tended to be about Musk's foibles, IMO. The most fundamental reality is that Tesla has gone from nothing in 2003, to making the 4th-best selling car in America. They are outselling any other luxury car brand. It's a remarkable achievement; the overwhelming majority of all startups fail, and the auto industry is notoriously even harder than most sectors to crack.

      But ramping from zero to 300,000+ units per year in 15 years inevitably comes with teething troubles. I hadn't heard about the service issue, but it makes perfect sense; with the Model 3, first it was production, then delivery, and incipiently, apparently, service. It'll get solved.

      I like your statement about a 'long way to mainstream' because it made me think about the ways in which that is true, and the ways in which it isn't. Performance, I think, largely falls now in the 'isn't' category--with cars like Teslas, or the Volt and similar vehicles, range (the primary performance issue) is now pretty competitive.

      (I'm puzzled by your niece's range anxiety over an 80-mile round trip, by the way; the Model X (the CUV model) has a 238-mile EPA range rating for the smallest battery variant. I'd have thought a 3x safety margin would have been ample!)

      Of course, you are right that the charging infrastructure is still an issue. Here Tesla is doing more than anyone else that I'm aware of, but a buildout takes time and cash. And until the public has ample charging points, planning will still be indicated for EV drivers.

      The thing I look forward to as a prospective EV driver is the quiet. My trusty 2003 Forester is loud. It'll be great to hear music clearly in the car, and still be able to hear the phone ring! (Not to mention the quantum of driver fatigue due to the noise decreasing.)

      But 'mainstream' means more than what the car can do; it also means take-up by the public. And while there is clearly strong demand for the Model 3, its 300,00+ annual sales rate is a small fraction of the 80 million vehicles sold worldwide. It's true that the US is not the strongest world market for EVs; that distinction belongs to China, where 6.5% of auto sales for 2018 are forecast to be EVs, and where 1.1 million EVs are forecast to be sold this year.

      http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/china/

      The same source puts 2018 global sales at a forecast 2.1 million.

      http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug...

      So we are at something like 2.5% EV market share on a global level. At the most basic level, that is clearly 'a long way from mainstream.'

      But in terms of time? I don't see a global growth estimate in the article, and in any case I would expect a lot of variation across space and over time. But many of the country growth rates are into 3 digits, so for the sake of argument I'm going to assume 50% annual sales growth and see what falls out. That's a doubling time of 1.38 years, by the 'rule of 69'.

      So, for a naive 'back of the envelope' extrapolation, it's between 7 & 8 doublings to get to 100% EV auto sales. 8 x 1.38 = 11.04 That would put EVs well into the mainstream prior to 2030--sometime in the next decade, and hopefully well before either you or I are ready to stop driving.

      Of course, you can't count on exponential increases over time. This article gives some interesting perspective on that:

      http://steveboese.squarespace.com/journal/2015/12/...

      So, I'd say 'a long way' numerically, but perhaps not such a 'long way' in terms of time.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      2 weeks ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc,

      I saw in the news that Tesla has produced 86,000 Model 3 in the last quarter surpassing their goal of 5000 per week.

      However, they also say, one problem is the lack of servicemen trained to repair these cars...along with many other infra structure related issues. All electric cars has a ling way to go before it reaches main stream

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 weeks ago from Camden, South Carolina

      And on the electric vehicle front, Tesla's Model 3 sales continue to be limited by production, not demand--and as production has exploded, sales have followed, making the Model 3 the 4th-best-selling car in the US, behind only the Camry, Accord and Civic:

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/03/the-elephant-...

      On present trends, I'd expect it to outsell the Honda models by year's end. (The Model 3 was only about 800 units behind the Civic in September, and 1300 behind the Accord. Meanwhile, Tesla's production and delivery capabilities continue to improve.)

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      7 weeks ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Jack, in regard to our recent conversation about the penetration of RE, have you seen this?

      For the first half of 2018, the US EIA is putting RE in a virtual tie with nuclear energy at about 20% of US electric generation:

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/28/us-renewable-...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      8 weeks ago from Camden, South Carolina

      And, on the issue of sea level rise, I've been warning people for a while that SLR was going to be degrading coastal real estate values. Now there are signs that that is starting to happen. Apart from edge cases, such as the unfortunate Charlestonian described in the story linked below, at-risk properties are still mostly appreciating in value--but not as fast as the market in general. It seems that some buyers are even asking for flood-risk discounts.

      https://www.nola.com/expo/news/erry-2018/08/a5662e...

      So far, this is pretty limited in extent and scope. But it's going to keep growing, in terms of risk levels, geographic extent, and public awareness. It's not the worst risk climate change imposes. But it's one of the most visible ones.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Correction: the $12.2 billion cost was just *Georgia Power's share* of the total cost. The complete bill is now around $24.1 for construction and financing.

      This story explains the share-vs-total issue, but predates the latest overrun:

      https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060067953

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      I don't recall if it was on this thread or the companion Hub by Jack Lee that I commented that I had little faith in the estimate that the Vogtle nuclear expansion would continue to hold steady.

      And sure enough:

      https://www.myajc.com/business/economy/vogtle-cost...

      It was at $12.2 billion including financing costs; now we're at 13.3--presuming that this is the last overrun ever, which I doubt. (But presuming they finish, eventually *some* overrun will be last, and who knows? It *could* be this one.)

      Gotta take those "I told you soes" where you can get them. But this one doesn't make me all that happy.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Interesting, if a bit speculative:

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/05/the-tesla-sme...

      It's quite clear that some folks who comment on this issue are, well, pretty unbalanced in their views on Tesla (for example, the guys who, when photos of Model 3s in temporary storage lots started to surface, immediately concluded that demand must be collapsing). But that doesn't require (shall we say) 'collusion'; there are Internet cranks of numerous flavors out there. But it's interesting that those same guys had pretty good visibility, seemingly well beyond anything the quality of their analysis would justify.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Further to the last comment, there's an update on the CT story showing the comparative sales figures of the Model 3 and various other vehicles. Most interesting to me was the last chart, showing the Model 3 in comparison to the other 10-best selling car models in the US. Yes, the 3 is among the top-10 sellers, holding down the #8 spot in a virtual tie (for now) with the Hyundai Elantra.

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/06/7-charts-tesl...

      It's selling about half the volume done by the leading models, the Camry and the Corolla. (Of course, the sales figures at present are limited by production, not demand.) Also striking is the fact that the 3 is by far the most expensive car on the list--it's about twice the price of the next-most expensive models, the Camry and the Accord. (Though that will drop to 50% more when the base model hits the streets.)

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      I must confess that I misspoke--I meant the Bolt (the pure EV), not the Volt. (Does anybody else feel that having such highly similar names for GE's two most prominent electrics is confusing, or is it just me?)

      Still, I know what you mean. I think the range/recharge thing is a bit overblown, but it's not unreal, and certainly its present exigencies don't fit the 'road warrior' mentality. As the technology continues to advance, the issues will be progressively ameliorated, but as you say, for some people a hybrid will be a good fit in the meantime.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      2 months ago from Yorktown NY

      I also think Hybrids like the Volt is the way to go at least in the next 5-10 years. The limited range and the long recharge time would make Tesla a less than ideal option for most people. Granted it is a nice drive. All indicators are that it is a fun car. However, most people need cars that just take you from A to B with little fanfair.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Actually, Tesla already hit 200,000. Reportedly, they strategically withheld deliveries in order for that to happen at the beginning of Q3 instead of the end of Q2 in order to maximize the number of customers who would receive the credit.

      "...is Tesla competitive with the other major car companies like GM, Ford, Honda, Toyota...?"

      In making gasmobiles, obviously not. But in making EVs, the question is, are GM, Ford, Honda and Toyota competitive with Tesla? ;-)

      Right now, only GM is even really trying in the arena of battery electrics (and the Volt is a vehicle to watch, IMO). And only Toyota has a strong EV history, with its hybrids. But the Model 3 is outselling the Prius something like 2-1 at the moment.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      2 months ago from Yorktown NY

      I understand where you are coming from.

      The bottom line is - is Tesla competitive with the other major car companies like GM, Ford, Honda, Toyota...?

      Without the government subsidies which will be going away soon, as early as next year, assuming Tesla reach its production goals. After 200k cars per year, the subsidies gets Phased out...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      "...they have not been producing the base model 3 at $35K price as yet."

      Correct, but that was apparently planned (and announced) all along. For one thing, the higher trim levels are more profitable, helping the cash flow situation to improve.

      "Many potential buyers are bailing out of the deposit and asking for the $1k back."

      There are uncorroborated reports that claim that, but I don't think that there is solid evidence that it's actually true. This report discusses it, and concludes that:

      "...the main takeaway is still that the demand for the Model 3 is absolutely insane.

      "At the planned production rate at the end of the current quarter, it would still take Tesla over a year to work through the backlog even if Second Measure’s cancellation rate is correct, which Tesla claims it is not."

      https://electrek.co/2018/06/04/tesla-model-3-reser...

      Certainly, Tesla has always expected some reservations to be cancelled, and in fact makes cancellation pretty easy.

      "It is hard to see how they can reach profitability any time soon."

      I don't know what you are basing that on, but Tesla is outselling competing models by huge margins--according to this story, taking about a 1/3 of the entire vehicle class market share!

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/01/tesla-model-3...

      And the reverse-engineering the Model 3 has shown that its cost structure is very healthy indeed:

      https://electrek.co/2018/07/16/tesla-model-3-teard...

      Now, that's just one product, albeit a crucial one. But they can sell as many as they can make--actually, more than they can make--and they are making 5,000 a week now, and still increasing. They are claiming margins now of 15%, and expect them to improve to 25%. (Per yesterday's earnings call). So in round numbers, that's currently about $7500 profit on each Model 3, or $37.5 million a week. And the cash burn rate has dropped, and continues to drop. Obviously, there's a lot more to it than that. Those who want to get right down into the weeds can try this:

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/26/vijays-simtes...

      I don't care to get that far down the rabbit hole. But it looks to me as if there is a plausible path to profitability: increase production further, and keep containing costs. (After all, much of the huge cash burn over the last year has been developing the production capacity, and while there are still going to be serious outlays in that regard, there are, after all, now complete and functioning lines that do not have to be replicated in the near future. So costs should logically continue to decrease.)

      The market today sure seems to like what they see: the current quote on TSLA is over $349, up over 16%. I guess you see a bubble inflating further. And that would make sense, except that there is a suite of profitable products which are selling like hotcakes.

      As always, we'll see what happens. As I said before, I'm sure this won't be the last twist in the saga!

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      2 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Yes, I saw that but as I understand it, they have not been producing the base model 3 at $35K price as yet. Many potential buyers are bailing out of the deposit and asking for the $1k back. It is hard to see how they can reach profitability any time soon. I still think the stock price at $300 per share is way over priced. It is a bubble waiting to pop.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Another milestone in the Tesla story, and another painful one for shorts who failed to cash out prior to the earnings call:

      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results-s...

      It looks very positive for Tesla's future, but I'm sure it's not going to be the last metaphorical twist nor turn in the road!

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Lake Mead isn't in California; it's in Nevada, downstream from the Grand Canyon, and not too far from Las Vegas. The current drought in California isn't that bad, by recent standards; none of it is in the worst category of 'exceptional drought', and only the far southeastern corner is even in the next-worst category, D3 ('extreme drought'). By contrast, the 'four corners' area where Utah, Colorado, Arizona and converge, IS in exceptional drought (D4). Basically the whole Colorado River watershed upstream of Lake Mead is D3 or worse.

      http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

      However, the 2014 California drought probably *was* unprecedented. See, for example:

      https://oceanbites.org/was-the-california-drought-...

      I've seen the 20-year cyclic claim, too, but found no support whatever for it in historic data that I looked at. This graph is second-hand and 'broad brush-strokes', but if you can see cycles in there your eye is more sensitive to them than mine:

      https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/0...

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      2 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Is the current drought in CA unprecedented? I don’t know the answer but heard some say the drought happens on a regular basis every 20 years or so...given the increased population and water usage, you think the State could have planned better for water management.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      2 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Concerns about Lake Mead continue to deepen--unlike the lake itself. With the 'third straw' operational, they can now draw water right down to 'dead pool' level (the level at which Hoover Dam can no longer release water). But now water management officials are projecting significant probabilities of lake levels below 1020 feet (as compared with 'old normals' above 1200), and urging the most concerned states to come to a 'drought agreement' that would 'buy time' to find longer-term solutions. (No word on what those might be, though.)

      https://tucson.com/news/local/risks-to-lake-mead-c...

      Currently, the lake is at ~1077--doing a little better than in 2016, when the summer level bottomed out at ~1070, though not as well as last year.

      http://mead.uslakes.info/level.asp

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      3 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      "Elon Musk seems a bit unglued of late. Getting into a twitter war over the Thai soccer players rescue seems distracting... also, he seems to be spread too thin with running 3 companies..."

      I think those concerns have validity, but it the production ramp continues--and I think it will--then they probably are not of great significance. We'll see.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      3 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Really, I am just the opposite, I’ve been advising people to avoid the TSLA bubble in stock. They are way above valuation by any stretch. Also, I am not convinced they have solve the mass production problem. They cannot sustain this rate using robotics. The attempt at full automation is their weakness. Also, Elon Musk seems a bit unglued of late. Getting into a twitter war over the Thai soccer players rescue seems distracting... also, he seems to be spread too thin with running 3 companies...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      3 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      "We will have to see if the model 3 fare as well."

      Yes, it has a new battery, redesigned from the cell level up. We know that one design consideration was to reduce very significantly the amount of cobalt needed, since that is looming as a possible supply 'pinch point', or at least an increasing expense. (Though not for BYD's batteries; they use a different chemistry!) And from that perspective, it is already a success.

      The question is, does it cycle as well? Some question whether that will be the case. Or is it possible that it cycles even better, as some others think? No-one outside Tesla seems to know, and maybe they can't be certain inside Tesla, either! But as so often is the case, time will tell.

      One thing is for sure about the Model 3, though, and that is that they literally can't build them as fast as they can sell them. (Though they're getting closer!) With 5,000 units out the door each week, and new estimates reporting ~30% profit per unit, I'm feeling much better about company prospects than I was.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      3 months ago from Yorktown NY

      That is very interesting. I also wondered how long and resilent will the battery on the Tesla last. It appears it lasted 300k miles before changing to a new battery and then at 400k.

      That is very impressive. The cost is still a factor for most. We will have to see if the model 3 fare as well.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      3 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      One expected advantage of EV technology is lower operating costs, including lower maintenance costs due to inherently simpler drive trains. So this story represents an early data point in that history. Tesloop reports on their experience with their most heavily-used Model S, which they have now operated for over 400,000 miles. While it racked up $19,000 in maintenance costs, that still compares favorably with estimated costs of ~$88,500 (Lincoln Town car) and ~$98,900 (Mercedes GLS class) over the same 400,000 miles.

      Obviously, all three vehicles are considered to be in the 'luxury' class.

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/17/tesloop-share...

      I think quite a few people will be keeping an eye on this issue. I know that I will.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      3 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      No, I don't think so. I think that we don't want to *lose* any more nuclear capacity for the reason you mention, and because it is good to have baseload capacity, even if the grid is becoming less and less reliant on baseload.

      However, new nuclear capacity is *much* more expensive and *much* slower to build than renewables, which are cheap and (to a considerable degree) modular. That makes them much more scalable than nuclear power. And while *existing* nuclear capacity is cheap enough, costing something like 3 cents a kilowatt-hour to operate if memory serves, *new* nuclear capacity in the US actually has an unknown cost.

      By that, I refer to the failed expansion here in South Carolina, which has cost $9 billion, and which will yield not a kilowatt of power, ever; and to the equally troubled Vogtle expansion in Georgia, which is now in year 10 of construction, is not expected to be completed until 2022, and is currently estimated to cost $25 billion to complete. I don't have a lot of faith in that estimate, due to the history of cost overruns so far, and due to the fact that financing is currently becoming more expensive, not less, with rising interest rates. There also appear to be rising political headwinds:

      https://thebrunswicknews.com/news/local_news/noel-...

      (Note that the arguments against Vogtle are all economic; there's not one mention of nuclear waste or accident in the piece.)

      So, the bottom line is, we really don't know how much new nuclear capacity in the US costs unless and until Vogtle gets built; there is now no other real-world, empirical metric.

      Meanwhile, renewable costs continue to fall. Onshore wind is now by most metrics the cheapest form of generation to build in the US on a kilowatt-to-kilowatt basis, and solar PV is competitive (and about 2/3 the cost of nuclear, as calculated by the EIA):

      https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_g...

      (Note that the EIA is not pro-renewable, and in fact has a long history of underestimating the deployment of renewable energy.)

      So, while nuclear power has a role to play in our energy mix, scaling it up sufficiently to address the carbon crisis is simply not possible.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      3 months ago from Yorktown NY

      My point is, if helping climate change is the main objective, shouldn’t we be supporting more nuclear power plants...after all it is the ultimate clean, renewable energy source. It is also competitive in price to existing power source.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      3 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      You mean a huge spike in electric rates?

      You made me curious; this article reports estimates of 1 to 1 1/2 cents a kilowatt-hour.

      https://energywatch-inc.com/indian-point-closing-i...

      According to this source, NYC residential rates are already north of 17 cents/kwh, so that's ~ a 6-11% increase. Big enough to be unwelcome, sure, but I wouldn't call even 11% 'huge'.

      And I bet, based on several factors, that the increase turns out to be less than that in practice. Let me know, if you happen to think of it, as things play out.

      (In general, by the way, I support keeping existing nuclear capacity operating, and support research into nuclear technology for the future.)

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      3 months ago from Yorktown NY

      In my area, the nuclear power plant Indian Point is scheduled to be decommissioned in 2 years. It will cause a huge spike in our electric utilities...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      3 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Another renewable energy milestone in the US, as wind plus solar reaches 10% of total generation, and all RE (including hydro) reaches 20%.

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/28/us-renewables...

      Some folks expected that 10% variable power would be highly destabilizing to the grid, but that has not been the case, as grid integration of variable power sources has been less difficult than anticipated. (Though it still an issue to which attention must be given, and increasingly so as penetration of variable renewables continues to increase.)

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      3 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Fortuitously, this just in:

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/28/byd-powers-up...

      Batteries have been the most expensive part of EVs--but with mass manufacturing like this, battery costs can only continue to decline rapidly, bringing down EV prices with them.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      3 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      "All electric will be more expensive even with rebates."

      For now...

      "I wonder how many will be sold..."

      I'll keep you posted, never fear! ;-)

      But don't forget, there are a few different ways to assess cost: up-front expense is one, but lifetime ownership & operation is another--and there, electrics may shine, depending upon the needs of the owner.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      3 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Thanks for the info. Volvo are not cheap cars to begin with. All electric will be more expensive even with rebates. I wonder how many will be sold...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      3 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      More on the evolution of mass-market EVs:

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/27/volvo-says-xc...

      A lot of Volvo's American production will be just a couple of hours down the road from me in Charleston, SC.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      4 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Yes, we need to study it more. But no, it's not necessary to suspend all practical action in the meantime.

      After all, in the same article we read:

      "Though Shepherd said they can't point to one root cause that is responsible for the melt, it is in response to a changing climate.

      "Antarctica has very clearly become activated over the past couple of decades in a way that it wasn't before," Shepherd said.

      The study used 20 years of data from 24 independent satellite measurements, along with studies from more than 80 co-authors, and was prepared in collaboration with NASA and ESA.

      "We think this is the most authoritative estimate to date, and it shows a really clear picture," Shepherd said.""

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      4 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc,

      Here is the statement that is eye opening...

      "This is a big increase in ice loss that needs to be understood and needs to be taken into consideration when we look to the future," Andrew Shepherd, lead author and a professor of Earth Observation University of Leeds in the United Kingdom said.

      So another word, we need to study this more...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      4 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Another worrisome study, this time a 'meta-study' that involved more than 80 authors. The main finding was that ice loss from the West Antarctic ice sheet has more than tripled, and is now contributing 0.6 mm/year of sea level rise, or 20-30% of the observed total rise.

      http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/antarctic-ice-sh...

      That would help explain the fact that the rate of rise appears to be increasing.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      5 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Oops! The preceding comment was supposed to refer to a story in the MIT Review:

      https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609620/global-w...

      A worrisome story...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      5 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      “There are problems with climate models, but the ones that are most accurate are the ones that produce the most warming in the future.”

      Moreover, "...an emerging challenge is that the climate is changing faster than the models are improving, as real-world events occur that the models didn’t predict. Notably, Arctic sea ice is melting more rapidly than the models can explain, suggesting that the simulations aren’t fully capturing certain processes.

      "“We’re increasingly shifting from a mode of predicting what’s going to happen to a mode of trying to explain what happened,” Caldeira says."

      In other words, we are moving into a regime in which increasingly we are being overtaken by events.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      5 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      "It is arrogant on the part of humans to think we can control it to the extent they think..."

      It's not arrogant to take accurate stock of the effects of our actions, and to choose actions that further our own best interests (which also implies conserving the biosphere, upon which we depend).

      It's responsible.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      5 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc, I guess we will have to wait and see what is a better prediction. Obviously, we have different opinions. Nature has a way of taking care of things... It is arrogant on the part of humans to think we can control it to the extent they think. we are just a blip in the long history of this planet. look at what is happening right now in Hawaii. Do humans have any control over that? not even close. When a volcano blows, we can only evacuate and get out of the way...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      5 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      "As we know for a fact, the polar bear population are doing just fine..."

      With respect, we don't know anything of the sort. The population trends for most subpopulations are unknown, and for some, even population size is uncertain. Several subpopulations are, however, thought to be declining, and the Southern Hudson Bay group, while stable in population terms for now, is observed to be in declining mean physical condition.

      http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/population-map.htm...

      I'd also point out that the logic of your response is questionable: a threatening condition does not cease to be threatening because *at present* the anticipated harm is incompletely realized. For example, a growing cancerous tumor is not rendered harmless because the patient suffering it is so far asymptomatic.

      "Animals and plants are well adapted to climate change because they are survivalists..."

      Not change like this. Remember that, as Elizabeth Kolbert pointed out, we are already at the warmer end of the temperature range experienced during the Quaternary Period of the last 2 million years or so. And remember too that the rates of change we are imposing are enormously faster than transitions between normal glacial and interglacial periods have been.

      "The idea that we are causing this calamity is absurd. The natural climate change has been going on..."

      A non sequitur: just because forest fire occurs naturally does not mean that humans cannot also be a cause, nor that human-caused fires are harmless. There are very, very solid and long-standing reasons for the mainstream understanding that humans are indeed responsible for observed warming.

      "...we are in a better position to deal with the changes because we have new technologies..."

      There is no known suite of technologies that would allow a better outcome for relying on pure adaptation, than on mitigating the problem of carbon pollution.

      "Ever since the 1970s, I have been taught our population explosion will lead to the death of humanity..."

      Because one prediction was (arguably) wrong does not mean that another must be, too.

      And I'd argue further that, had we not (mostly by good luck) experienced the 'demographic transition' from high to low fertility levels in most of the world, we'd be in a worse state than we are today, regardless of the technological advancements that you correctly point to. And we'd be set up for *much* worse outcomes yet, over the next few decades.

      Further, in general, at some point growth becomes untenable--certainly energy growth does, at least, as demonstrated here:

      https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-...

      While our ability to adapt is indeed impressive, it becomes less so when we arbitrarily refuse to consider the least-cost options we have--in this case, mitigating carbon emissions.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      5 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc,

      "Polar bears and other iconic animals could be extinct by the end of the century if ocean temperatures continue to rise at the current rate, marine biologists warned Monday."

      It is statements like this that lends people like me to distrust scientists...

      As we know for a fact, the polar bear population are doing just fine, ever since An Inconvenient Truth documentary...

      Animals and plants are well adapted to climate change because they are survivalists...

      The idea that we are causing this calamity is absurd. The natural climate change has been going on since the formation of the earth all all life on earth since Noah...

      we are in a better position to deal with the changes because we have new technologies... we will survive and do very well and possibly help other species survive as well due to our conservation efforts.

      Ever since the 1970s, I have been taught our population explosion will lead to the death of humanity... due to shortages of food and water and natural resources...

      Well, here we are 50 years later and we are doing just fine...the reason, is our technology of food production and energy production...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      5 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Here's a story adding more support to the concerns about the biological effects of warming. Remember that Arctic and Antarctic waters have been extremely productive sources of food for both the biosphere at large and for humans, precisely because the cold waters are high in oxygen. That's why humans have sought them out for centuries now.

      http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/oceanic-warmin...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      6 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      You're welcome; I hope it helped.

      "...in nature, everything you described has happened and will happen again with or without human intervention."

      'Natural' does not mean good. The mass extinction at the end of the Permian, which wiped out something like 95% of all terrestrial life, was entirely natural. The question only concerns 'natural vs. human' insofar as we can control or influence the outcome in order to further our own best interests.

      "...environment protection is directly tied to human well being, clean water, clean air...and non toxic waste..."

      The problem here is the innocent-sounding term "directly". Indirect effects, such as I considered in the previous comment, can be highly lethal--so it would only be wise to consider them.

      "CO2 in small or large quantities is still a gas that is needed for life on earth just like water and oxygen."

      True, but irrelevant for the argument at hand.

      "The current climate models are far from reality."

      No, they aren't. They are imperfect, as I (following the IPCC and the professional literature) have said many times, but they have a strong track record of useful predictions. I won't repeat it here, but specific instances are documented above in the body of the Hub.

      "...the time scale is also a huge element of this debate. As I pointed out earlier in past conversation, if the prediction are for the next decade, then we are screwed."

      We discussed this a couple of comments ago, so I'll only say here that I'm basically in agreement--and suspect that in terms of climate change commitment, we are indeed perilously close to 'screwed.'

      However, it's not a binary screwed/not screwed dichotomy. Thus, while the 'golden window' for mitigating carbon pollution may be close to closing (or conceivably closed already), there will be chances to avoid still worse harms for some time to come.

      It's a bit like a gambler on a serious losing streak: there is time to cut our losses, right up until the time when we are completely wiped out. It's an imperfect analogy, though; on the one hand, the gambler will know when all the money is gone, and that will follow fairly quickly from the fatal bet, whereas in our case the lag between the two may be very, very long. On the other hand, there is *more* certainty in the case of climate change, in that we know to a practical certainty that the longer we continue with business as usual, the worse the odds become. In the case of the gambler, there is by contrast a real (though small) possibility of a dramatic, improbable win that recoups everything. That is not a possible outcome of our present situation. Doubling down will not take us anywhere good.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      6 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Thanks for that long explanation but it does not change the fact that in nature, everything you described has happened and will happen again with or without human intervention.

      Read that again for emphasis.

      Therefore, what is environment protection is directly tied to human well being, clean water, clean air...and non toxic waste...

      CO2 in small or large quantities is still a gas that is needed for life on earth just like water and oxygen.

      Yes, the quantity is a factor since too much oxygen can kill us but that does not make them pollutants.

      I hope you see the difference.

      As a computer engineer, I look for real models that demonstrate reality. The current climate models are far from reality.

      Until they fix this, this debate will continue and one way or another, one side will prove to be correct.

      Finally, the time scale is also a huge element of this debate. As I pointed out earlier in past conversation, if the prediction are for the next decade, then we are screwed. If they are for the next 100 years, we have time to mitigate. If they are for a 1000 years, then it does not matter much.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      6 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Well then, Jack , let me lay out the logic of including climate protection within the wider category of environmental protection.

      Modern biology recognizes that life characteristically operates in 'ecosystems' of interacting organisms within a particular physical environment. Wikipedia has an extensive article on the subdiscipline of ecology tracing its essential concepts and its history, here:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecology

      For context, a convenient milestone: "The term "ecology" (German: Oekologie, Ökologie) is of a more recent origin and was first coined by the German biologist Ernst Haeckel in his book Generelle Morphologie der Organismen (1866)."

      I mention this because there is a misconception that an 'ecologist' is an environmental activist. If so, it is on his or her own time; an ecologist per se is a scientist (biologist) who studies the systems resulting from the interactions of organisms with their biotic *and abiotic* environment.

      Let's take the most obvious climate-related example, the Arctic sea ice. It is the whole or partial physical habitat for numerous species including traditional Inuit, Eskimo, and Sami people, besides whales, walruses, seals, bears, and not a few marine species down to the size of micro-organisms. It is obvious on a purely logical basis that significant changes to the quantity and quality of sea ice will have major repercussions for all of those organisms.

      It's also empirically observable today that decreasing ice cover is putting stress on populations of bears and walruses. There is no reasonable doubt that the ice is decreasing, nor that the decrease is due to a strong warming trend, nor that that warming is tied to human greenhouse emissions.

      But that's just the most obvious example. Another would be ocean acidification--closer to the classic concept of what I call 'toxic pollution' in a way, but still an example of biological threat via alteration to the characteristics of the physical environment.

      A third, on a smaller scale but still involving billions of dollars of economic value, is the threat to fruit and nut tree orchards from climatic warming: most such species require cold weather to set fruit. Without a threshold amount of cool winter weather, the trees will not blossom, and the farmers will see no income. That's not an existential threat to society per se (though it may be to the farmers, due to the practical difficulties of switching to another crop or form of livelihood.) But it's not an isolated problem; there are many forms of 'ecological service' that we receive from functioning ecosystems, which we depend on and yet are barely aware of.

      Take the example of declining populations of flying insects, which seems to be occurring on a global scale. A recent study quantified the drop in Germany in terms of biomass at 76% over 27 years, noting that "Loss of insect diversity and abundance is expected to provoke cascading effects on food webs and to jeopardize ecosystem services... This yet unrecognized loss of insect biomass must be taken into account in evaluating declines in abundance of species depending on insects as a food source, and ecosystem functioning in the European landscape."

      http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.137.../journal.pone.0185809

      What does this mean in practical terms for humans, you may well ask. (I'm picking up on your phrase "that affect all of us right now.") And the answer, which I find quite scary, is that we frankly don't know. We do know that insects are low on the food chain--that being not just an everyday colloquialism but a basic ecological concept--and that they have, historically, accounted for a large fraction of Earth's biomass (they are tiny, but astoundingly numerous). That means that a great many other species depend on insects for food--birds, obviously, and amphibians of all sorts, and many mammalian species, from bats to bears. Additionally, insects act as pollinators for many, perhaps most, species of plants (and some have very specific dependencies).

      So, it's logically possible that this decline could lead to a loss of a great many species of plants and animals--local or even global population extinctions on a massive scale. It's possible to imagine a pretty dead landscape, should we lose all those species.

      But what would that mean for humans? We'd probably suffer a serious loss of clean water, since the hydrological cycle would be greatly altered, probably by drastically increased runoff rates. We'd see more flooding, probably, for the same reason.

      Agriculture would be harder just for that reason, but what about pollination services? If we became largely dependent on artificial pollination, our productivity would surely suffer a drastic decline.

      And what would the impoverishment of the landscape mean for air quality? Surely there would be more dust; do you know about the American 'Dust Bowl' years, partially induces by inappropriate farming practices?

      It's hard to know where the indirect but potentially very large effects would stop, for the simple reason that, for all we have learned about the normal functioning of ecosystems, there is much more that we have yet to learn--especially when drastic perturbations to the environmental conditions are involved.

      Since you are a computer engineer, consider the analogy of corrupted code. What happens if you randomly delete a line? Obviously, the results can vary widely. Maybe it was just a comment. Maybe it was a conditional call to a subroutine that hardly ever needs to be invoked. Or maybe it was the closure of a processing loop.

      What happens when you delete 1% of the lines? 10%?

      Well, you get the idea. It's not a good idea to randomly poke at systems you depend upon, but don't understand in depth.

      "CO2 and other greenhouse gases are not pollutants."

      Sure they are. A pollutant does not have to be synthetic--nitrogen and phosphorus, which are naturally-occurring elements are subject to pollution regulations, too. Nor do pollutants have to operate by direct toxicity--nitrogen (comprising nearly 80% of the atmosphere!) pollutes water when it over-fertilizes plant life (usually in the form of toxic algal blooms, like the one that shut down the water system of Toledo, Ohio in 2014.)

      The important factor here is that being a pollutant is not an essential *quality* of a particular substance, but a result of its *quantitative* levels in particular contexts interfering with ecological functioning. (For example, atmospheric nitrogen is not a pollutant, but elevated nitrogen levels in agricultural runoff are, both practically and in law.)

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      6 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc, you had me till the last paragraph. That is the difference between you and me. I treat them separately. Environmental protection is clean water clean air recycling... that affect all of us right now. I support those efforts totally.

      CO2 and other greenhouse gases are not pollutants. They are by products of life on earth the way we are accustomed to. It can be said by some extremist environmentalists that we humans just being here are a threat to the environment. By that logic, we should all comit suicide to save the planet. For who? This co opting of the climate change issue by the environmentalist is the huge problem in my eyes. They should not be linked. The climate change is a long term issue that requires careful deliberation. It should not be taken on to save the planet because the planet is going to do what it is going to do. Another ice age will come in 100,000 years. Can we control it? Or will we still be here?

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      6 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Thank for clarifying.

      "Do you think it is accurate then and now?"

      Hard to be exactly sure, given the multiple uncertainties involved, but I think it is (or was) largely accurate. Many of the scenarios in which we avoid the 1.5 C warming benchmark now involve either temporary 'overshoot' and/or technological drawdown of atmospheric CO2. So, inasmuch as Lynas didn't envisage such measures, then his statement may have been accurate, since now to achieve comparable goals we have to invoke more desperate (and perhaps infeasible) methods and tactics.

      "If we didn’t act with urgency as he proposed, what would happen?"

      Increasing damage to ecology, economy, and the security environment. Unfortunately, we don't really know where possible non-linearities in response may lie. The more dilatory we are, the more risk we run, and the worse the damage we must live with.

      "If things are as dire as predicted, and scientists and politicians are so positive in their belief..."

      Scientists, by and large, are. Politicians, not so much. And they are the ones who are the 'deciders' of policy.

      "We go to wars for much less..."

      Indeed. You'll find no shortage of folks advocating efforts comparable to the WW II commitment. But it's a lot easier to see weaker nations being conquered by a tyrant than to see most of the consequences of climate change--especially when there is an extensive and intense PR effort to obfuscate the latter issue.

      "...a different agenda such as environment protection..."

      Climate protection IS environmental protection. Not *all* environmental protection, of course--we must address toxic pollutants that don't directly affect climate, too. But climate is fundamental to the functioning of ecosystems all around the globe, as well as to human economies. So these 'agendas' really can't be separated.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      6 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc, I was using your quote from the book ....

      “My conclusion in this book... is that we have less than a decade remaining to peak and begin cutting global emissions. This is an urgent timetable, but not an impossible one. It seems to me that the dire situation that we find ourselves in argues no for fatalism, but for radicalism.”

      It was written in 2008 and now it is a decade later from where he made the statement.

      Do you think it is accurate then and now?

      If we didn’t act with urgency as he proposed, what would happen?

      How far should our society go to enforcing these strict limits on emission?

      If things are as dire as predicted, and scientists and politicians are so positive in their belief, then why woudn’t they act by force if necessary? ... for the greater good.

      We go to wars for much less...

      Unless they are not that sure,,, and that they are hyping it for personal gains, and that they are excercising their power to achieve a different agenda such as environment protection...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      6 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      You're welcome, Jack.

      "...some part of the globe will become more hospitable to life."

      Probably not, at least in any humanly meaningful timeframe. While temperatures in Arctic and Antarctic regions may become more hospitable to humans and our commensals, it will take a very long time for other conditions to approach the biological and ecological wealth we inherited. And a lot of the latter will just be gone irreplaceably.

      Past 2 degrees of warming, there is precious little benefit anywhere.

      "Also, the predictions made in 2008 is now 10 years old. Have they materialized as he projected?"

      Ten years is too short; at a warming rate of ca. 0.17 C per decade, we're still in the "one degree world", as we were in 2008. However, the water stress stories I linked at the beginning of this subthread are vivid examples of long-predicted 'bad case' scenarios.

      "We can’t possiblly know what is going to happen in 10, 20, or 30 years..."

      As one who has often emphasized uncertainties, especially about what human society will choose to do over the next few years, I certainly agree. But we have some knowledge about the wisdom of our current course--or rather, the lack of wisdom. And the uncertainties that remain are not our friends, based on standard approaches to risk management.

      "Is it too late for any actions as he predicted?"

      I don't think he did make such a prediction; the whole last chapter of the book is about choices and actions, as summed up in the title "Choosing Our Future."

      But it's hard to know whether it is 'too late' already. Actually, there's no assurance that we'll be able to recognize 'too late' when and if it comes (if there even were a single such moment).

      Given that warming lags forcing, and that sea level rise and probably many other impacts lag warming, it's very likely that we won't. We'll recognize it only in the 'rear view mirror'--with enormous (and enormously futile) regret.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      6 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc, thanks for these info. I read the 6 degree summary and there is one problem. It does not mention the benefits of a warming world. I can see all the negatives but there are also positives... some part of the globe will become more hospitable to life. If this happens gradually over centuries, people can migrate and adapt...

      The problem with climate chamge is not one sided.

      Also, the predictions made in 2008 is now 10 years old. Have they materialized as he projected?

      Is it too late for any actions as he predicted?

      I don’t think so...

      Another case of worst case scenario not coming to fruition.

      I guess that is why I am still a skeptic?

      We can’t possiblly know what is going to happen in 10, 20, or 30 years let alone 1 year.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      6 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      A sort of update on the water-stress issue. Just ran across not one, but two reports of climate change-related water stress issues and the huge associated costs.

      1) Israel has reached unprecedented levels of water stress, and is planning a large increase in its desalinization capability:

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/10/as-israels-fr...

      2) China's water stress amelioration effort, the $48 billion (so far!) South-to-north water diversion project, isn't achieving its goals (though it is, for the present, keeping the taps flowing in Beijing, which is certainly for the best).

      "...in the north, 11 provinces have less than 1,000 cubic meters of water per person per year [the threshold for 'water stress']... Eight have only half that... [including] four of China's five biggest farming provinces. They produce 45% of the country's GDP and generate half of its power. It is no exaggeration to say the future of China's economy is threatened by lack of water."

      https://www.economist.com/news/china/21740011-chan...

      Both cases are long-predicted consequences of climate change, and may be found in the literature going back quite a while. See, for instance, my piece on Mark Lynas's "Six Degrees", a book which came out in 2008:

      https://owlcation.com/stem/Mark-Lynass-Six-Degrees...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      6 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Best of luck with your 'personal matter,' Jack. Unfortunately the study link only goes to the abstract, not the complete study, which is behind a paywall. So it won't take you long to scan through. Still, it gives some relatively straightforward extrapolations, which I thought would interest you, as I know you find indefinite projections a bit frustrating. (Me, too!)

      Speaking of Arctic sea ice, I have a feeling that this is going to be an interesting melt season. Temps in the Arctic basin have been on a bit of a roller-coaster--very high through the early- and mid-winter, with a 'crash' in early March (though still a bit warmer the historical baseline.) And two important 'gateway' seas--the Barents and particularly the Bering--are much more ice-free than historical norms for the time of year.

      So I think that there's some potential for record melts--though that doesn't mean the 'potential' will be realized. There was 'potential' last year, too, but the summer was predominantly cool and cloudy, leading to a minimum that was low but not record-setting. We'll see if my intuition that this year is different is on point, or just teasing me.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      6 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc, thanks for the head up. I have been busy of late at home with a personal matter. I am interested in the new studies and projections...will take a look.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      6 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Jack, not sure if you are still getting notifications of my comments here, but returning to the topic of Arctic sea ice loss as we have discussed it here and elsewhere, there's a new paper out looking at observed trends by sea and by season:

      https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-...

      "The Kara Sea appears as the first currently perennial ice covered sea to become ice-free in September. Remaining on currently observed trends, the Arctic shelf seas are estimated to become seasonally ice-free in the 2020s, and the seasonally ice-covered seas further south to become ice-free year-round from the 2050s."

      That is of course just an extrapolation of currently observed trends, not a dynamically-modeled result which tries to look at the physical mechanisms. Like all such, the tacit assumption is that causal factors in play now don't change too drastically over the forecast 'window'--an assumption that may or may not turn out to be valid.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      6 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Another milestone for electric vehicles: a new highwater mark in the small, but 'bellwether' Norwegian EV market: nearly 40% of all new-car sales were pure battery vehicles:

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/04/norway-welcom...

      One reported result: associated CO2 emissions dropped by more than a quarter.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      7 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Wow! Perhaps the last big city I expected to have water problems along the lines discussed in the Hub is Vancouver, British Columbia, in Canada--coastal British Columbia in general is considered a 'temperate rain forest'. Yet they've had to ration water every summer since 2014, and are now going to spend $800 million (CDN) to lower reservoir intakes, as they had to do at Lake Mead.

      http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/vancouver-water-...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      7 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Jack, here's the next development in the Autonomous Vehicle story:

      https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/gm-to-invest-1...

      GM has already built 130 prototypes, and is now committing a large chunk of change to production models. What do you think?

      ***For readers who may happen by--this *is* relevant to climate change, though it might not be immediately obvious! Here's how it could work:

      --Widespread use of AVs could drastically increase the average utilization of automobiles--most of which are used only around 5% of the time.

      --By doing so, they'd drive down the cost per mile, which would mean that taxi- or Uber-style service would become very, very cheap, undermining the utility of private car ownership for many families.

      --That in turn would mean many fewer cars on the roads, reducing greenhouse emissions.

      --Additionally, it's believed by many that the greatest cost savings could only be realized by *electric* AVs, which would also reduce GHG emissions--potentially to zero for all but 'embodied' emissions, if the electric grid were zero-emissions (say, a combination of wind, solar, and other renewables, plus some baseload nuclear power, plus various forms of power storage and demand management.)

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      7 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      On the subject of AVs, here's an interesting Waymo video (Waymo being the AV arm of Google.) While it will not convince AV skeptics that AVs can cope with highly chaotic driving environments--the ride illustrated in the video is serenely suburban--it does make several good points about AV capability.

      One is that, unlike human drivers, Waymo cars have true 360-degree 'vision'--and they use three sensing modalities: lidar, radar, and camera 'vision.'

      Another is the experience factor that the system has. Currently the Waymo test fleet is driving about as many miles annually as a typical American. But since the average experience level of the driving public is approximately fixed--experienced drivers are retiring all the time, even as new drivers are entering the system--and AV system experience is cumulative over time, at some point the AV system's experience--hopefully embodied effectively in the controlling software--will be far more experienced than even the wisest driver on the road. And it will combine that experience with far better 'reflexes' than even the quickest young driver out there.

      Can't forget to actually link the video!

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/02/waymo-shows-c...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      7 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Another milestone for autonomous vehicles--no onboard human driver will be needed in California for compliant AVs being tested in the real world:

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/28/california-dm...

      There will still be human oversight, though, as remote human operators will be monitoring and can intervene if needed. I'm sure a lot of people and organizations will be watching this very closely indeed--though, actually, I'm sure they already are doing so!

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      7 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      You're very welcome, Jack. I think that it's true that the transition away from ICE tech will likely proceed a niche at a time. (Though note that these vans comprise a pretty big niche! There are a *lot* of small firms doing just such delivery routes.)

      I don't think charging infrastructure will be the hurdle you expect, though that is by no means to say that it is not a challenge. But as I've already given my reasons, I won't repeat myself here.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      7 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Thanks for the news...Interesting niche market. I still think large scale charging of EV will present a huge challenge...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      8 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      The EV revolution continues, with a custom-spec all-electric van for UPS. Acquisition cost is "comparable" to diesel, with a large advantage in operating costs.

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/22/workhorse-fle...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      8 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Yes, but they found a quadratic fit matched observations better than the linear fit you assume--hence the higher resultant value. (An accelerating term is also consistent with what we know of the physical processes involved.)

      As to what AR5 projected, the discrepancy between our recollections prompted me to look it up. I found this summary quickly on RC:

      "For high emissions IPCC now predicts a global rise by 52-98 cm by the year 2100, which would threaten the survival of coastal cities and entire island nations. But even with aggressive emissions reductions, a rise by 28-61 cm is predicted."

      http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013...

      So, we're both right, sort of. Your 'half' would be about 28 cm. But if I'm not mistaken, that's for the lowest emissions scenario, RCP 2.6; the high-emission scenario matches what I said (well, taking the lower bounds number, at least.)

      Currently, we're still matching the high-emissions numbers more closely, but I'm hopeful that in the next couple of years that will change, between the rapid progress of cleaner electrical generation around the world and the various mitigation measures pledged in Paris NDCs.

      Somewhat ironically, taking the 'wait and see' approach to emissions mitigation that you've advocated would pretty much guarantee that the global emissions trajectory would continue to match RCP 8.5 for the foreseeable future. That, in turn, would 'lock in' the 52-98 cm scenario.

      There's an independent discussion of the Nerem et al. paper here:

      https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/sea-level-...

      The "money quote," though, is this:

      "The average rate (from satellite data) is 3.1 mm/y, but the present rate is closer to 4.8 mm/y. That’s a substantial increase — a 50% increase.

      "My estimates are based on the raw data, and do not remove the estimated influence of ENSO/PDO or the Mt. Pinatubo volcano. That’s why the rate seems to “level off” at the end, a behavior which is due to the 2015/2016 el Niño. With that influence removed, sea level rise is still accelerating.

      "Another possible source of uncertainty in their estimated rate of sea level rise is that they use a quadratic function to estimate its changes. It’s clear to me that the pattern is more complicated; a quadratic (fit to the raw data) estimates the rate of sea level rise now at 4.3 mm/y, but a more realistic fit gives a higher rate.

      "Extrapolating the quadratic to the end of the century is fraught with uncertainty and shouldn’t be taken as a realistic forecast, but it does provide a reasonable lower bound on this century’s imminent sea level rise."

      That is, a 'reasonable lower bound' *in the absence of what the IPCC called "aggressive" action.*

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      8 months ago from Yorktown NY

      This 61 cm projection is double of what the IPCC projected and over twice of current measurements.

      61 cm =610 mm /82 = 7.4 mm per year (assuming 82 more years till 2100 and linear progression.) The current mesurement is only 3 mm rise per year.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      8 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      A new study in "Nature" estimates the observed acceleration in sea level rise, finding that a lower bound for SLR in 2100 is 61 centimeters (2 feet). SLR isn't, IMO, the most dire threat from climate change, but it is certainly severe enough. A 2-foot rise would cause enormous damages, and force very large numbers of people to relocate.

      http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/satelli...

      If I recall correctly, the last official IPCC estimate was 59 centimeters, so very close--but I'm not sure off the top of my head whether that was a 'best guess,' or, as in the current study, a minimum estimated value.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      8 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      There's a lot of research on that, though I think it hasn't been as active recently--perhaps because many feel the question has been adequately addressed?

      For instance, this paper from 1983:

      https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/quaternary...

      It talks about Milankovitch cycles and the albedo feedback. (The CO2 feedback and water vapor feedback are two other important ones.) This paper also discusses sea level as an important link in the causal chain.

      It cites this:

      https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...

      CO2 is explored here:

      https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...

      And this may be a bit more mainstream, documenting physical evidence of CO2 abundances:

      http://science.sciencemag.org/content/316/5830/145...

      You could spend an awful lot of time looking at abstracts...

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      8 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Interesting study. I wish it address the why of climate change. Why did the ice age end? There are obviously many components to climate and we only have a small part to play. The magnitude of the earth is great. In physics, it is called inertia. To change direction in global scales takes a tremendous effort. I am just not sure we have what it takes to do it.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      8 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      An interesting article on temperature reconstructions for the entire Holocene period (as opposed to the old 'hockey stick' work, which only reconstructed the most recent portion of the Holocene).

      https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/01/are-we-alr...

      I like the author's comment that it is still in the early stages of this work, and that our picture of the period will still probably change. Of interest will be the question of whether we are already warmer than at any time in the present interglacial--this study says 'yes'. There had already been some evidence that that was the case, but the previous two 'whole-Holocene' reconstructions failed to confirm the idea.

      For completeness, here's the link to the original paper:

      https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25464

      (Only the abstract is available there.)

      It's also interesting that the newer work supports modeled hindcasts of the period--one of the earlier reconstructions showed significant divergences.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      9 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      No, he doesn't specify time frame, because climate sensitivity is defined in terms of response to *a doubling of CO2*. As it says in the story:

      "Climate sensitivity is the amount of warming that will occur after CO2 concentrations become twice as high as they were in pre-industrial times. Pre-industrial CO2 concentration levels were about 280 parts per million (ppm) and levels are currently at around 404ppm.

      "This means that, if humans stopped releasing CO2 today, the world should expect to experience more than half of the warming dictated by the ECS."

      So, the research is not couched in terms of a specific time frame, but a specific *condition* being achieved.

      Of course, we can make some estimates. Doubling from preindustrial CO2 concentrations occurs at 560 ppm, 156 ppm higher than present. At current growth rates--say, 2.5 ppm per year--we'd hit doubling in roughly 62 years. (Call it 2079.)

      That's probably too conservative, though; CO2 emissions rates had been increasing, and perhaps still are. And there are some worrying signs that natural CO2 sinks may be 'saturating.'

      And, of course, we'd be way past any hope of holding warming to 2C at that point.

      I've given best estimates on that several times already, but here's an explanation of the 'carbon budget' and how it relates to how much time we have:

      https://www.huffingtonpost.com/jan-christoph-minx/...

      "The remaining net amount of CO2 that can still be released to the atmosphere in order to keep temperatures rise below 1.5C is close to zero. Even in the most optimistic case, it will not take longer than five years to exhaust the remaining carbon budget at current rates of CO2 emissions. It will be, on the other hand, about 10-25 years before the world crosses the budget line for 2C."

      Simple enough?

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      9 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc, thanks for the link. I read it and no where does it mention the time frame this estimates are suppose to happen.

      I am a simple guy. Why is it so difficult for climate scientists to estimate how fast the temperature will rise, or how long it will take the oceans to rise?

      As I mentioned in past comments, the time frame is the key to our response. If is is short, we must act immediately. It is long, then perhaps, it doesn’t matter much...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      9 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Here's a story on a theoretical result that bears directly on several points we've previously discussed: a team of researchers claims to have refined the estimation of possible 'Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity'. It's been difficult to achieve, despite many, many efforts over the years, with a range of estimates stubbornly stuck at something like 1.5-4.5 C.

      Their new estimate:

      "...refines this estimate to 2.8C, with a corresponding range of 2.2 to 3.4C. If correct, the new estimates could reduce the uncertainty surrounding climate sensitivity by 60%."

      https://www.carbonbrief.org/new-study-reduces-unce...

      That's a good-news/bad-news story, because while extremely high sensitivities would mean that we are already toast based on emissions to date, extremely low ones--equally ruled out according to this paper--would have meant that we would be better placed to hold warming to 1.5C (the aspirational goal of the Paris Accord.)

      "The narrower range suggests that global temperature rise is “going to shoot over 1.5C” above pre-industrial levels, the lead author tells Carbon Brief, but “we might be able to avoid 2C”. Meeting either limit will likely require negative emissions technologies that can remove CO2 from the atmosphere, he says."

      Interesting in the context of our discussions is the methodology they used: very basically, they studied sensitivity by (if I've got this right) adjusting the temperature record to *eliminate* the human forcing, then looking at climate response to natural drivers. They showed that models with medium sensitivities matched the record best.

      This isn't the last word on the topic, but it's an interesting and potentially important one.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      9 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      A little more rise than that, I think; in the '10-year retrospective' metric, we've got about 0.7 C total rise, which divides out over 4.1 decades.

      So that should be ~0.17 C over the decade, if things run to present form.

      I would think that the human influence during the Maunder Minimum could be ignored, on 2 grounds. 1) It would have been pretty small, and more importantly, 2) it wouldn't have changed much during the period, since any human effect then would have been largely due to land use (relatively stable, one would think), not fossil fuel burning. (The Industrial Revolution is conventionally dated to 1760.)

      Your question about the Maunder Minimum is interesting. A little searching on Google Scholar found this:

      http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shar...

      "The GISS model results and empirical reconstructions both suggest that solar-forced regional climate changes during the Maunder Minimum appeared predominantly as a shift toward the low AO/NAO index. Although global average temperature changes were small, modeled regional cooling over the continents during winter was up to five times greater...

      "These results provide evidence that relatively small solar forcing may play a significant role in century-scale NH winter climate change. This suggests that colder winter temperatures over the NH continents during portions of the 15th through the 17th centuries (sometimes called the Little Ice Age) and warmer temperatures during the 12th through 14th centuries (the putative Medieval Warm Period) may have been influenced by long-term solar variations."

      So there you have it; Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann saying "It was the sun." ;-)

      Here's the search I ran, in case you want to look at other papers on the topic:

      https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sd...

      btnG=&oq=maunder+minimum+temper

      There's also this paper, from 2004, which paints a similar picture overall. But you might be interested in their Fig. 1, which lays out the (reconstructed) solar and CO2 forcings for the whole study period. (For the Maunder Minimum, the CO2 forcing is indeed pretty flat, as I had guessed above.)

      http://www.hvonstorch.de/klima/pdf/zorita_et_al_20...

      Have fun!

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      9 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc, very interesting plot. Assuming the data are correct, let’s see what happened over next 5-10 years. If trend continues, you expect a rise of .1 degree C.

      I still would be interested in what happened during the 1700s when the Maunder minimum occurred. It is clear the sun spots had a profound influence on our climate. What is the statistical variation calculation? What part is due to natural variability and what part due to human activity? The numbers are small enough that the noise may be hard to separate...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      9 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Jack, I have followed through on the intention I expressed on the thread on your Hub--that is, I've taken the first 50 years of annual temperature data from HadCRUT4 (roughly 1850 to 1900), applied the 'retrospective 10-year mean' methodology I described there to smooth the curve and examine decadal trends, and graphed the result, just as I did for the GISTEMP data. For good measure, I did the same for HadCRUT4 data for 1966-2016 to have an homogenous comparison curve on the same graph.

      It was all a bit 'quick and dirty', and done mostly last night when I was *really* tired, so there are a few rough edges, but it should be good enough for our purposes. Here 'tis:

      http://i1108.photobucket.com/albums/h402/brassdoc/...

      As you can see, the curves are quite different. Whereas the 'modern' curve shows a marked linear trend--made more linear by the averaging I did, which (I think) emphasizes the anthropogenic trend as compared with the natural (quasi-random) variability--covering roughly 0.7 degrees C, the 'early' curve does pretty much what you said, wandering up and down but going nowhere much, with only a tiny linear warming trend.

      (Disclosure: if you plot the data up to 1920, you get a different picture, as the years from 1900-1920 show a *cooling* trend sufficiently large to bias the whole period toward cooling. As far as I know, researchers are still fighting over possible causes for that cooling. I say let's leave it aside; it doesn't seem to favor one 'side' over the other for present purposes.)

      Second, the 'early' curve seems, as I said, to show more variability. There are three relatively large deviations from the linear trendline, and all of them are perceptibly larger than the largest deviation in the 'modern' curve.

      Third, in the 'modern' curve there are no sustained downward fluctuations: the longest is a 3-year span from Year 33 to Year 36. By contrast, in the 'early' curve you can spot several--for instance, the marked cooling from Year 28 to Year 35, or the cooling at the beginning of the record (Years 2-6).

      Put those observations together, and it suggests that we *may* be able to distinguish which way temps are going in as little as 4-5 years.

      --If there were to be a sustained cooling for that period, it would suggest the behavior of the 'early' period. (Remember, 'sustained cooling' using the averaging method, not raw annual anomaly!)

      --If there were to be a warming trend close to the historical rate of the 'modern' curve--which appears to be about 0.1 degrees C--over the next 4-5 years, that would *suggest* the reverse. (I emphasize 'suggest' because there are two comparably steep spans in the 'early' record, Years 7-14 (~0.1 C warming) and Years 28-35 (~0.14 C cooling).) So it wouldn't be definitive.

      (Disclosure: that is even more the case, because some warming is 'baked in' to the next few years due to the methodology. I ran a check to see what would happen if temps were completely stagnant at 2015 levels for the next 5 years--and the result is a warming trend of nearly 0.5 C over the complete span. That's due to the relatively cool years of 2007-8 'dropping out', and to the warming trend following them.)

      --For intermediate cases, I'd think we'd need to wait--and even then, the results would probably be 'strongly suggestive' rather than 'definitive.' And I would expect that in ten years, we will be seeing a very different *political and social* climate--one that might have *us* assessing things quite differently.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      9 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Yes, absolutely.

      Don't get me wrong, though; China still burns a lot of coal. But in 2016 it was down more than 10% from the peak in 2012, according to this link:

      https://yearbook.enerdata.net/coal-lignite/coal-wo...

      It'll be very interesting to see if the decline will be sustained again when the 2017 figures come out. Obviously, I hope that will be the case.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      9 months ago from Yorktown NY

      That is great news. when I was in China in 2016, they were still a heavy depend on coal. I support any way to clean the environment. Their air pollution is worst than ours back in the 1970s.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      9 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      And for the New Year, some good news: Shenzhen, China, has announced the completion of the conversion of their 16,000-strong bus fleet--3 times larger than that of New York city--from diesel to electric vehicles. They'll be saving 345,000 *tons* of diesel fuel annually, and avoiding 1.35 million tons of CO2 emissions--though, to be fair, I don't know whether or not that figure is net of the emissions caused by generating the electricity the buses use. We do know, though, that China's famously dirty power grid is getting greener all the time, due to adoption of wind and solar power generation and earlier retirements of the dirtiest coal plants in the fleet.

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/01/shenzhen-comp...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      9 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      As an afterthought--you know how fond I am of afterthoughts--here's a site that has great visualizations of weather analyses, as well as much climate data:

      http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

      It's quite fun to play with--I've linked the 2-meter temperature anomaly display, but you can also look at wind fields, precipitable water, and much else.

      By the way, a fact that my local forecaster remarked on last night is currently evident as well: while most of North American freezes, most of the rest of the Northern hemisphere is above normal: the anomaly for the hemisphere is 0.9 C--pretty toasty on the scale of things--and the Arctic is nearly 3 degrees warmer than normal.

      That poses some questions--ones to which I don't expect an answer, but which you may ponder if you wish. Why pick out the exceptional cold, rather than the exceptional warmth? Is it just because we are both physically experiencing the cold bit just now? Or is there another reason?

      Stay warm, my friend!

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      9 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Of course not, Jack. We've talked about this before, as you say, but by all means let's go over it again. I'll try to come at it a little differently this time.

      The current cold snap--which, by the way, is affecting not just the Northeast but most of the US and Canada--is *weather.* That is, it is the result of very specific atmospheric (and oceanic) conditions at a particular time. The weather can be described by an 'analysis', which is a model of the actual conditions at a particular time. There's much more about that here:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surface_weather_anal...

      The analysis is the basis for weather forecasting. Of course, today most forecasting is largely 'numerical'--that is, the analysis consists of a *numerical* model, and the forecast is accomplished computationally by applying the analysis as input to models incorporating the known physics driving weather.

      Here is a really excellent book which gives a very readable, yet in-depth overview of the development and characteristics of numerical forecasting, including the issues affecting both weather and climate forecasting:

      https://www.amazon.com/Vast-Machine-Computer-Polit...

      I think you'd enjoy it, even though it would challenge some of your perspectives. With your background in computation, I think there would be much that would touch a chord for you.

      Anyway, the current cold snap was very much *not* missed by weather forecasters. I can say that with some confidence as we are living in our 3-season lakeside cabin as we search for a contractor to implement the building plans we have for the site, and as a 3-season cabin, it features a water system that is open to the air underneath the cabin, and completely uninsulated. Therefore, prolonged periods of subfreezing weather are of considerable interest to us, as I'm sure you can imagine! So we've been watching the progress of this freeze with considerable interest--and sure enough, when last night's forecast called for an overnight low of 25 degrees, I shut down the pump and emptied the pipes to preserve them from bursting. But the main point is that we've been seeing this coming in the forecast for days now.

      Not perfectly--the details have been shifting a bit each day. The problem, as I'm pretty sure you are aware, is that the mathematics are chaotic, which means "highly sensitive to small differences in input data." And while the data assimilated into the analysis model is pretty good, it is far from perfect. ("A Vast Machine" looks at this issue in detail, so I'll say no more about it here.)

      The result is divergence between model and forecast, increasingly severe as the forecast time increases. With better data, vastly greater computational power, and better modeling forecasts have improved dramatically, as I well remember. But everything more than 10 days out--it used to be 5--is pretty much experimental, as far as I'm aware.

      So--given the fact that the numerical modeling techniques used in climate models are basically the same as those in operational weather models--does that mean that climate modeling is hopeless?

      No. Why? Because climate is not weather. Here are definitions of weather and climate:

      Weather: "The state of the atmosphere with respect to wind, temperature, cloudiness, moisture, pressure, etc."

      Climate: "The composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, as temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years."

      Simplified, climate is "average weather"--and the usual period over which it is 'averaged' is 30 years. (That's the WMO climatological norm period, than which there is nothing more authoritative.)

      So a climate model is not concerned with predicting specific weather events, such as the cold snap, or Hurricane Harvey, or the latest iteration of California drought. The point of climate forecasting is to project as accurately as possible the 'average weather' of the future. This is done in practice by doing multiple model runs, with the initial conditions being varied slightly. (It's more involved than that, but again I'll just cite "A Vast Machine" as a good source for the details and move on.) Each model run will describe an 'alternate history' for Earth's weather.

      (And in fact, that is one reason for the multiplicity of climate models, which I know bothers you. In validating models, researchers do 'hindcasts', in which they attempt to forecast the past based on the data they have. That lets them see the strengths and weaknesses of each model. This one may do the best job of modeling temperature trends in Europe; that one may best model the evolution of the North American monsoon; and a third may excel at projecting the retreat of the Arctic sea ice.)

      With many model runs, one can derive a pretty good projection of what the long term climate trends will be. It may be that *no* individual model run perfectly corresponds with the observations. But we find that model-observation agreement over time is quite good.

      And it's not surprising, in a way, because there's a parallel phenomenon existing in many disciplines: the so-called 'Law of Large Numbers.' Perhaps the best instance is the insurance industry. While nobody can tell who will die tomorrow, there exists a whole industry--life insurance--which is predicated on the ability to forecast with considerable accuracy just how many of certain types of people will die on average each day. And, tellingly, it's one of the more boringly consistent, conservative industries out there.

      Similarly, climate modeling makes no attempt to predict the specific trajectory of global 'analyses' that *will* occur. That is beyond human ability, now and perhaps forever. In fact, its methodology of multiple models and multiple model runs invokes imaginary but physically realistic 'alternate weather history' which is explicitly NOT going to be duplicated in future weather. (That's since the initial conditions don't match the current analysis.)

      However, the record says that this methodology *does* reproduce pretty well the salient features of the climatic evolution we have been observing over the last several decades.

      Hope that helps.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      9 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc,

      Just to revisit something from our past discussions. Did the climate model predict the lastest cold wave hitting the Northeast? Or did I miss something? If they project 25 years into our future, with all the uncertainties, yet they can’t tell us we are having a record freeze this winter? What is wrong with this picture?

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      9 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      The Tesla battery bank in South Australia excels as coal generation unexpectedly drops out--twice:

      https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/27/tesla-grid-st...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      9 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      I hate to add to an already lengthy comment, but I should have included what I think the summary statement should have been:

      "70% of all respondents thought that climate change over the past 50 years was ~50% or more due to human activity."

      That's technically just as true as Mr. Steele's summary, and much less misleading.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      9 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Jack, it is good to hear from you. I hope the holidays have been treating you well.

      However, whether you "bought in" or not, the 97% number occurred in several studies, as summarized here:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_o...

      So it is a reality, no matter how inconvenient.

      Turning to the study your WUWT story discusses, I have a couple of comments. First, it is not a survey of climate scientists, but of "weathercasters" who may or may not have scientific training. Even those who do are rarely trained in climate science as well as meteorology, and there is a long-established 'siloing' of the two disciplines, despite the considerable overlap of subject matter. So it's not surprising to find that attitudes among climate scientists are not distributed in the same way as attitudes among meteorologists, still less "weathercasters" (whose primary training may be in journalism or media studies).

      As the survey itself says:

      "Prior surveys (including our own) have shown large discrepancies between the range of views among broadcast meteorologists and the range of views among climate scientists, finding moderate to high rates of climate change skepticism among broadcast meteorologists."

      So we are not talking about an apples-to-apples comparison between the studies of climate scientists and weathercasters.

      Secondly, the story you link to actually distorts the findings of the survey itself. Read the survey results here:

      http://assets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/Oct2017_Clim...

      The survey's own list of findings is as follows (abridged for brevity):

      1) "More than 90% of weathercasters indicated that climate change is happening and approximately 80% indicated that human-caused climate change is happening..."

      2) "A majority of weathercasters (54% in 2016; 62% in 2017) indicated that climate has changed in their communities over the past 50 years..."

      3) "Nearly 60% of weathercasters (in 2017) are at least somewhat interested in reporting on air about projected local climate change impacts and approximately 90% of weathercasters believe their viewers are at least slightly interested in learning about the local impacts of global climate change."

      4) "The majority of weathercasters are interested in reporting on a range of local impacts, including extreme precipitation and flooding (77%), drought and water shortages (75%), extreme heat events (74%), impacts on local wildlife (65%), impacts on air quality (63%), impacts on crops and livestock (62%), impacts on human health (60%), and wildfires (53%)."

      They sum it up thus:

      "In short, a strong majority of weathercasters are now convinced that human-caused climate change is happening, and many feel they are already witnessing harmful impacts in their communities. Moreover, many weathercasters are beginning to explore ways of educating their viewers about these local impacts of global climate change."

      Mr. Steele arrives at a different conclusion:

      "So for ALL meteorologists surveyed only 11% actually claimed humans were mostly responsible for observed climate change: 22%(response) X 49% (attribution)."

      However, that is transparently misleading; he gets that by:

      1) Excluding those respondents who thought that human factors were of 'about equal' importance with natural ones (21% of respondents, and the second-largest group); and

      2) Multiplying the resulting 49% by the participation rate, 22%.

      Now, his verbal formulation of this ridiculous procedure is carefully structured to be arguably true, despite the fact that it is also misleading. It depends on the interpretation of "surveyed"--if one means "all those to whom surveys were sent", then it is technically correct.

      But it is absurd to calculate percentages based on non-responses! To see that, let's complete the exercise:

      Humans mostly responsible: 11%

      Humans about equally responsible: 4.6%

      Natural factors mostly responsible: 2.9%

      Don't know: 1.8%

      Didn't respond: 78%

      Since we have no idea what the opinions of those who didn't respond may be, including them is useless; it provides no useful information to the reader. However, it *does* serve to obfuscate the distribution of opinions among actual respondents.

      That's why normal practice is not to tabulate non-responses when calculating survey results. The only point I can see in departing from normal procedure is to minimize the apparent significance of a result Mr. Steele apparently didn't like.

      But, as they say, YMMV.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      9 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Doc, merry christmas and a happy new year. Here is an article questioning the 97% agreement on human caused climate change...

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/22/is-the-97-c...

      I never bought into that number, not even close.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      10 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Another European offshore wind auction *without subsidies,* the first for the Netherlands. An interesting discussion as to whether the time is quite ripe *yet* for this, or not.

      https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/19/netherlands-f...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      10 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      Worth noting: Tesla's 100 MW battery storage farm is up and delivering power to the grid in South Australia. It took about 60 days to build--well under the 100 that Elon Musk guaranteed. That's pretty impressive, compared to construction times for conventional power plants. (Yes, I know that this isn't directly comparable; it's storage, not production.)

      http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/tesla-powerpack-...

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      10 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      "Planes are a huge problem just as drones... The safety issue will make any alternative energy source a challenge."

      Again, I don't follow. Electric motors are simpler and need less maintenance than ICE tech, so why would using them create a safety issue? Submarines, for instance, have used them for over a century with a high degree of reliability in quite extreme environments. (And in combat....)

      It's true that thermal management for LI batteries is imperative, so that they don't overheat. Is that what you are concerned about?

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      10 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Thanks, we will see if any or all these new technologies will make the cut. True cobalt is not a rare earth element but many parts of the electronics in these new vehicles are. It will be interesting to see how far we can go with this. Planes are a huge problem just as drones... The safety issue will make any alternative energy source a challenge.

    • Doc Snow profile imageAUTHOR

      Doc Snow 

      10 months ago from Camden, South Carolina

      "The problem we face with rare earth elements is not something a market driven economy can resolve."

      Huh? Why not? You don't explain; the rest of your comment has to do with the market for fossil fuels, not rare earths or cobalt (which isn't a rare earth, but was, I thought, what we were talking about.) I see no reason why increased demand for cobalt will not mean an increase in supply through normal market mechanisms (i.e., increasing prices).

      Here's what the market forces are already doing in the part of the world I grew up in:

      https://www.bnn.ca/ghost-town-of-cobalt-gets-first...

      But let's turn to the fossil fuel markets. As far as electrical generation goes, wind is already usually cheaper than fossil fuel options except (in the US) some natgas plants, and solar is already so for the sunniest climes, such as Australia or India. In both cases, prices are continuing to come down.

      I've already supplying links on that, but let me know if you'd like to see them again.

      As far as transportation goes, liquid fuels have advantages, as we both know, in terms of energy density. That often translates into range and/or power. But it's becoming increasingly clear that for some applications, electrification has significant advantages--and again, the price curves are still moving pretty rapidly. The biggest surprise to me is how much commercial interest there seems to be in electric aviation. I didn't really see that coming, but there are now at least 3 projects aiming at commercial airliners using hybrid electric technology, not to mention several pure electric planes in short-haul applications such as trainers and urban mobility. Again, I've got links if you want them, but you can probably Google them up fine on your own if you are interested.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      10 months ago from Yorktown NY

      The problem we face with rare earth elements is not something a market driven economy can resolve. It has to do with supply and demand. When there is abundant supply such as coal and oil and gas, the price performance is key to their success. Any competitor energy source will have to come up with a better advantage with regard to supplies and performance. So far, none has reached that point. Time will tell if they ever will...

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