North Korea Fears Trump's Mental State
Donald Trump’s approach to de-nuclearizing has adopted a more primitive realism as opposed to a pragmatic one and the rationalization of the perennial problem. Trump’s masculine toughness corresponds with Kim Jong-Un’s uncompromising position coupled with failed coercive diplomacy.
China and North Korea do share similar political systems and strategic regional interests. China condemns North Korea’s nuclear provocation; however North Korea’s identity may just have to do with their own principles and internal structure in solidifying security order. The order of territorial strategies developed by China has to do with economic means that offsets a nuclearized Japan.
Putin made it clear that North Korea will never give up nuclear weapons “even if they eat grass”. Nuclear capabilities in the Korean Peninsula deal with defensive and offensive weapon systems. Regional uncertainty also plays a role as it blocks the restoration of the balance of power. The mathematical equation started with Donald Trump himself as he stated, “No problem with Japan and South Korea having nukes, at some point we have to say, you know what, we’re better off if Japan protects itself against this maniac in North Korea.”
Trump denied the international community and its allies to restrain North Korea’s nuclear ambition simply because the allies are unable to determine the inner-circle and political decisions that come out of Pyongyang. The systematic problem is therefore the hypocrisy in denying the rights of regional countries in the Asia Pacific region to bear nuclear weapons.
If Trump’s rational behavior relies on respect then his approach has changed with his words and has now become a primary driver for state nations to seek nuclear weapons to assert their identity. The nations that have achieved nuclear capabilities rely on those assets to not only bargain with their security, but to bolster their strength economically.
If the United States wants to revitalize its power then the normative stance for countries is to shift their relations to an internal and external security environment. Trump feels that he’s running America similarly to the way he runs his own corporate environment. He can fire the individuals he doesn’t like, but the distain in bureaucracy will move his agenda at a snail pace.
Japan’s constitutional entitlement is to possess nuclear weapons for the purpose of self-defense. As long as Japan can rely on the United States’ nuclear umbrella, the equilibrium and structural order is maintained. Japan has enough plutonium to produce hundreds if not thousands of warheads. Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan, stated, “The constitution does not ban from acquiring nuclear weapons if they’re allowed as tactical weapons.”
Amid rising tension, United States Secretary of State Rex Tillerson indicated, “The diplomatic efforts will continue until the first bomb drops.” That means America’s stable dimension of national power has aligned itself with Trump’s stewardship and his inability to subdue the enemy. The North Korean regime does play tricks with Trump’s mind; they attack his masculinity which makes his decisions more erratic and reckless. This may have had to do with Tillerson’s sharp statement. After all, Sun Tzu, author of “The Art of War”, made it known that it’s important “to break the enemy’s resistance without fighting”.
Operations of the US military allow North Korea to view and observe the United States at their doorstep. Rex Tillerson’s diplomacy should involve Russia rather than having Russia at arm’s length in order for America to gain a better understanding of the rogue nation of North Korea. Russian geopolitical analysts are the most knowledgeable and informed reporters of unfolding worldwide events shaped behind the secrecy of closed doors.
If the most important aspect is the inner-circle and North Korea’s political development, then it’s quite obvious that the nation wants to leverage their domestic assets for economic gain and to avoid the humiliation of punishment. North Korea has little economic prosperity towards its people. Their only hope is to throw military means and nuclear escalation as source of strength to undermine their weakness.
Now Trump is getting a little erratic. On October 17, 2017 he threatened John McCain after the Arizona Republican finished a speech of the repudiation of Trump. Trump stated, “Be careful, because at some point I will fight back.” I think Trump is being pushed over the edge and the reason why is because even Russian military think-tanks are giving us the likely scenario of what would happen.
Russian-based Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported that amid North Korean threats, Seoul was preparing to use a graphite bomb against their Korean counterparts. Furthermore, military expert Vladimir Yevseyev communicated that Washington does not intend on holding consultations with allies if it ended up proceeding with a decision to deliver a “disarming strike.” He continued that Japan and South Korea would most likely not be notified of such an attack, he noted, “Such a strike would be carried out against detected targets with the goal of destroying the missile and nuclear structure, including ballistic missile bases, as well as dismantling airfields, command posts and naval bases.”
This would result in a non-nuclear strike relying on the force of Tomahawk cruise missiles. Yevseyev indicated, “A response would be an artillery strike of Seoul, that means launching ballistic missiles into South Korean territory. Possibly, a strike would also be carried out against Guam. If North Korea has wrapped up its work on the Hwasong-14 missile, a strike against Honolulu is possible.”
Therefore, the Russian analyst has notified that the stage of a non-nuclear standoff is most imminent. However, if the existence of North Korean leadership is jeopardized, Pyongyang would be in a prime position of utilizing nuclear weapons. “This is the most severe scenario. South Korea would be the most affected side. It would experience the most significant damage, Seoul would be hardest hit”, the analyst indicated.
In war, no one wants to die like a dog. Kim Jong-Un has a low threshold of pain. As a spoiled nutcase, he can see what happened to Saddam Hussein. Donald Trump is a spoiled nutcase and can not allow his masculinity to interfere with 25 years of unworkable diplomacy with North Korea. The Russians picked up Trump’s mental equation with America’s military might. The Korean generals fear Trump and his mental state. Maybe the last straw is for these Korean generals to do the unthinkable, it is a game of first-strike and if it’s on the inner-circle, they may just survive.
I'd like to thank Michael Ambrozewicz for his contributions to this article.