Embolden Iran Due to Trump's Domestic Problems
Iran has viewed the missile attack on the Saudi Arabia oil refineries a complete success in several ways. They were undetected, they hit their targets, caused great damage and put all oil producing nations in the region on notice of their power without even using their more serious missiles. Yet, they are economically being sunk with only China, Russia, and India, as being their main economic saviors for their products.
After the attack, Iran has now officially threatened the UAE with the same sort of attack upon their refineries unless they withdraw their military from Yemen. This punitive attack they say will be devastating within the UAE. Knowing that Trump may prevent Chinese ships from entering Iranian ports for their oil (this would cause a major problem along with the already face-off the US has with China in the South China Sea and trade), Iranian proxies (the PMU) have deployed along the border of Jordan\SA to seal it off. By posting its Iraqi proxy PMU forces on the two border regions, Tehran directly threatens the Saudi capital Riyadh from the north and Israel from the east. This PMU force is pro-Iranian Shiite and much better armed than the weak Iraqi Army left by the Americans. The question what now?
Iran has also has tried to have Iranian proxy forces based on the West Bank, in Gaza, Samaria, and Judea. Some of the groups have been seized with help of Palestinian intelligence. These groups are simply designed to cause terror in Israel's population centers.
Meanwhile, Russia is now expanding their main airbase in Syria with another runway being built to house the more than 30 aircraft operating there and Putin is going to Saudi Arabia to sell them the Russian S-300 or S-400 system to defend against Iranian missiles, Russia's friend. This would pose a real problem for Trump who would be against this sale due to some F-35's being based there. Turkey, a NATO member, refuted Trump's bluff and went ahead in buying the Russian S-300 instead of the US Patriot.
So, one can see how the Middle East has strange bedfellows with a lot of betrayal or faux alliances between the main players there. Iran's strategy is being helped now that Trump is in political turmoil in the USA over Ukraine and its cover-up. Within the WH there is more upheaval to come, to draw away the US attention in the Middle East as Trump moves through impeachment for his disgraceful actions during the 2020 US Presidential election.
Will America actually do something more the next time Iran attacks oil facilities such as in the UAE? Being pre-occupied with domestic mayhem actually may have Trump order a military strike to divert the American attention away from himself, to change the domestic news cycle.
