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End Game in the Afghanistan War
Ten years from now, history will look upon this war much as it does on the Vietnam war- a waste of American life, money and time. Yes,some good did occur, we did build roads and modern infrastructure, setup a fragile government, got girls and women back into schools and society, but in the end, that is it.
For now, the US is entering its "end game" strategy as the war draws down and how it does resemble the last year of the Vietnam War in 1975. Then, the South Vietnamese army, stayed within the provinces surrounding Saigon. Unlike the American army, it was riddled with corruptness and bad morale. Few of its divisions fought with any tenacity. Now, the NATO forces plan is to basically protect Kabul by gathering the forces in strength to create an iron wall, while all other provinces are held by the "funny" army, the South Vietnamese-like army under a new name, the Afghanistan army.
The main focus is on the eastern section-Kunar, Laghman, Paktia, Logar, Wardak and Ghanzi provinces where the expected Spring Taliban offensive usually occurs in. 2012 is the last year for the war, in 2013, the transition begins and US troops will be leaving until only a few brigades are left.
Protecting Kabul, like Saigon, makes sense. Then, like now, if Kabul is contested or falls, which seems like an impossibility, it would be worldly shock. But the Taliban are not the Russian armed North Vietnamese, they are more like the Viet Cong. They have already said that wherever the US concentrates its forces, they will avoid and attack the weak areas. What this means is just about ANYWHERE else in the country!
So, as NATO and US troops hunker down around Kabul environs, the rest of the country will go Taliban as they corrupt the useless Afghanistan police and army. This has already happened because the Taliban control roads and charge tolls when you enter "their' region!
All the Taliban have to do is wait.