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GOP Eyes Brokered Convention

Updated on February 12, 2012

If there is one conclusion an objective observer can draw from the ongoing GOP’s Primary/Caucus events, it is there is no decisive frontrunner. The results and the polling data seems to support this palpable takeaway. The fractured Republican Party has been divided into a geographical battle of the states. Each of the enduring factions is essentially pulling the GOP apart.

Rick Santorum’s victories in Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado give him the frontrunner status in the Midwestern States. The former Pennsylvania Senator maintains his self proclaimed status as the true conservative in the remaining field, in addition to being the Anti-Romney candidate. He presently has garnered the most state Primary/Caucus wins as he strives to build on his current momentum as well as advance his financial support.

Mitt Romney can best be characterized by his favorable/unfavorable upside down poll rating. Additionally, market research specifies the more voters find out about the former Governor of Massachusetts, the less likely they are to vote for him. Mr. Romney currently leads the field with delegates allotted from the 8 states that have voiced their opinion. Mitt seemed to have the support of the Northeastern geographic states.

Newt Gingrich holds the key to the direction of the GOP. With the upcoming march events, if Newt holds the south as expected, it will be a virtual free for all at the Tampa Convention.

Ron Paul is a wild card and only adds to the distribution of delegates if he continues collecting proportional votes along the way.

This leads to the very real possibility of none of the candidates securing the 1144 majority of delegates required to mandate a Nominee at the Tampa Republican Convention. When a candidate does not have a majority at the first ballot of the nominating convention, it becomes a Brokered Convention.

Today the Conservative Political Action Conference kicked off its annual event for activist conservatives. Prior to addressing the CPAC conference today, Tea Party Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina acknowledged the possibility of a Brokered Convention.

Real Clear Politics summed up the conservative republican frustration as follows; “For many conservative Republicans, the dream outcome of the primary season is a brokered convention. Disappointed in the four remaining choices, they hope to change horses in August, and draft their preferred candidate, be it Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, or Paul Ryan”.

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    • gjfalcone profile imageAUTHOR

      gjfalcone 

      6 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona

      Evening Professor,

      Although the liklihood fades, the possibility remains of a Brokered or Contested Convention. Super Tuesday should clarify the Republican State of Being.

    • phdast7 profile image

      Theresa Ast 

      6 years ago from Atlanta, Georgia

      I hadn't really thought about the possibility of a brokered convention. It would certainly change things and make for a very very different presidential race. Thanks for this informative and helpful hub.

    • gjfalcone profile imageAUTHOR

      gjfalcone 

      6 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona

      Hello Joshua,

      I was going to suggest you wait to make that decision until Willard is done singing 'God Bless America', but I have a feeling recent events changed his tune.

      Don't forget about the wild card 3rd party candidate. It might be someone whom supports your position.

      Thanks for your comments and rest asssured I have your Marketing Hub bookmarked and have shared it with my fellow hubbers. I plan on taking on this project over the weekend. Be well Sir.

    • gjfalcone profile imageAUTHOR

      gjfalcone 

      6 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona

      Thanks for checking in Michele. The topic of Republican electability is front and center in the CPAC. Essentially, they have recognized a moderate Republican is a losing formula. When Romney ran against McCain he was the conservative Republican. This time around he is viewed as the moderate. Look for Santorum as the favorite to take the CPAC straw poll.

    • gjfalcone profile imageAUTHOR

      gjfalcone 

      6 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona

      Best of luck to you in Law School Gaming Cowboy.

      I think you'll find the CPAC is worried about the electability of their front running candidates with good reason. In a two horse race, the informed voter should be cognizant of both positions prior to the electon.

      The fact that ideological slurs are thrown about should point out the need to change the dysfunctonal political system. For those who are so inclined, I suggest they visit the Americans Elect or No Labels site.

      It changes what is really Bad for America to a very good Honest Discussion about the direction this country is heading, if that is indeed what one is looking for.

      Thanks for your comments.

    • gjfalcone profile imageAUTHOR

      gjfalcone 

      6 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona

      AM phoenix,

      I would suggest the '24 hour news cycle' spotlight allows nothing to fall through the cracks. Thanks for checking in and for your comments as well.

    • Michele Travis profile image

      Michele Travis 

      6 years ago from U.S.A. Ohio

      Wonderful hub ( again) you are following them better then the CNN or any of the other news. Anyway the Republican party is broken right now, which is going to be difficult to get a man everyone likes. The problem I have with Ron Paul, how ever has nothing to do with anything people on the news said he did, it is what I heard him say about foreign relations. And he did say this " If we are nice to them, they will be nice to us" Or something close to that. That worries me a lot. I do not want a president with a belief like that. Maybe he thinks no country will ever be against us, or will put our guard down. I don't know. It was just those few words that worried me.

    • GamingCowboy profile image

      GamingCowboy 

      6 years ago from Los Angeles, CA

      I think this is actually really bad for America. We need to have an honest discussion about the direction this country is heading, but instead we're worried about the horse-race of the GOP nomination and throwing ideological slurs at each other.

    • phoenix2327 profile image

      Zulma Burgos-Dudgeon 

      6 years ago from United Kingdom

      This is actually becoming quite entertaining. Who needs cable when you've got this going on. Comedy, melodrama, farce, it's got it all. It's starting to make UK politics a little dull by comparison.

      When did politics get so complicated?

    • gjfalcone profile imageAUTHOR

      gjfalcone 

      6 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona

      Watching the CPAC on CSPAN1, brutally honest about the weak Republican Presidential field. Better than the West Wing episode on Brokered Conventons.

    • profile image

      twfalcone 

      6 years ago

      It's gettin' good, eh!? Very interesting soap opera!!

    • gjfalcone profile imageAUTHOR

      gjfalcone 

      6 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona

      Thank you Alastar, I appreciate your kind words and comments. Always good to hear.

    • Alastar Packer profile image

      Alastar Packer 

      6 years ago from North Carolina

      Oh, thanks and pardon me gjfalcone. Been reading most of your hubs as they come out- very good breakdowns they are.

    • gjfalcone profile imageAUTHOR

      gjfalcone 

      6 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona

      Hello Alastar,

      Thanks for stopping by and for your interesting comments.

    • Alastar Packer profile image

      Alastar Packer 

      6 years ago from North Carolina

      Oh contre wise Wizard; he's the only one could inspire enough to send O back to the alphabet.:)

    • gjfalcone profile imageAUTHOR

      gjfalcone 

      6 years ago from Gilbert, Arizona

      Hey ThoughtSandwiches,

      As you may know I'm working on the third party choice for Americans Elect. Still haven't made a final decision but I have eliminated a few candidates.

      Thanks for stpping by and as always I appreciate your input.

    • ThoughtSandwiches profile image

      ThoughtSandwiches 

      6 years ago from Reno, Nevada

      gjfalcone...

      I believe that last (even closely) brokered convention for the GOP wold have been Reagan's insurgency candidacy in 1976...I would like to see it go to the convention.

      Being a Democrat...I hope Ron Paul gets the nomination and we can, at that point, stop worrying about the General Election (Nothing against Ron Paul...just not very electable).

      Above and beyond...I like the notion of a party fighting it out. They say that it tears the party apart...I think it just shows that they have a soul. The Republican Party could use a soul, I think.

      Thanks,

      Thomas

      PS...Voting Up and Sharing!

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