ArtsAutosBooksBusinessEducationEntertainmentFamilyFashionFoodGamesGenderHealthHolidaysHomeHubPagesPersonal FinancePetsPoliticsReligionSportsTechnologyTravel
  • »
  • Politics and Social Issues»
  • United States Politics

Handicapping The 2012 Presidential Election

Updated on January 20, 2012

The GOP Primary Candidates

The 2012 Presidential Election will be held in November to see who the president will be for the next 4 years. Incumbent president Barack Obama is already going to be representing the Democratic Party. However, who is going to be the conservative candidate? Here are some of the leading contenders:

Mitt Romney-

The former governor of Massachusetts was the likely nominee until news hit that he actually placed 2nd in Iowa. Is being chased hard in South Carolina by Newt GIngrich and could actually lose that state to Gingrich. Romney is having trouble overcoming his image of being an elitist who is out of touch as of late. Still the likely nominee, but that is not a sure thing anymore.

Rick Santorum-

His campaign was left for dead, but he was able to pull out a victory in Iowa. New Hampshire was a little bit of a disappointment, but he has vowed to continue to South Carolina. Should expect to finish in third place in South Carolina and after being declared the winner in Iowa, he should be a bigger force going forward.

Ron Paul-

The surprise of the nominating process thus far, Ron Paul has gotten more airtime and coverage than ever before. After a solid second place showing in New Hampshire, Paul is starting to become a force in the GOP race. His economic views fit with the GOP right now, but is still viewed as too out of touch for most conservatives.

Newt Gingrich-

Gingrich was leading the Iowa polls by double digits until a few days before Iowa. A fourth place finish in New Hampshire was not what he wanted, but he is widely expected to pull an upset and win the South Carolina primary. Doing so would alter the landscape of the GOP race going forward and make the form speaker a threat to win the whole thing.

Jon Huntsman-

Finished with about 17 percent of the vote, which was good for third place. Skipped the Iowa Caucus, and with a solid showing in the Granite State, was ready to go to South Carolina. Seen as a moderate, his ties to the Obama administration may haunt him. He was the ambassador to China before running for office. *Update: Hunstman dropped out of the race and is now endorsing Mitt Romney.

Issues To Keep An Eye On

The Economy (Duh)

The biggest issue that will be front and center in this next election is the economy. Americans want to go back to work and are sick of hearing about record unemployment numbers. While unemployment has remained around 9 percent for most of 2011, the latest numbers have shown to have crept back down to around 8.5 percent.

Whether this is because of the Christmas season inflating the need for workers, or so many Americans simply not looking for work, it will be a number that is spun in many different ways.


The latest economic reports show the economy to have posted the most job losses in 6 weeks, so that momentum may be waning just a bit post-holiday.

Americans Opinion Of Congress Itself

Americans have become fed up with the actions of Congress. Failure to get a debt deal done in time to avoid a downgrade of the US credit rating and squabbles over payroll tax cuts have underscored the polarization of Congress.

What Do Americans Think Of Obama

The economy is going to be a key issue, but how Americans view Obama is going to be critical to whether or not he gets re-elected.

According to a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, Obama was seen as being more trusted on taxes, and seen as taking the correct position on the payroll tax cuts. However, the GOP is going to want to paint Obama as a socialist who raises taxes and cannot create jobs.

President Obama is also seeing some of his highest approval ratings in a long time, with his approval ratings hovering around 50 percent. Keeping the economy moving forward and responding to GOP attempts to stall any of his proposed legislation will be two tests of his leadership moving toward the election.

In a Rasmussen poll, Obama and Romney were dead even at 42 percent each in a hypothetical match-up.


As the campaign moves along, the ever changing dynamics have made the race a tad more interesting. While Romney scores a slight edge over Obama, Ron Paul has also effected polling numbers. It is estimated that Paul could beat Obama in a hypothetical matchup, or could cost Romney the election running as a third party with Obama getting over 40 percent in a Romney, Paul, Obama election race.

Early Prediction

Outside of Mitt Romney, the GOP does not have a candidate who has all the qualities to be an effective president. Even Romney will have to explain why he is against a health care model he created, and what he would do to create jobs and spur the economy.

Santorum and Gingrich are passionate about their ideas, but simply do not come across as men who make good leaders. Ron Paul seems to be an honest man who believes in his principles, but it is unlikely he would be the nominee.

Obama has a tough fight on his hands. It is his economy to fix, even if he wasn't handed the best situation. If he can show more improvement and a sustained march to recovery, he should win a second term fairly easily. If not, it could open a place for the GOP candidate, most likely Romney, to make a strong case to win the election. This race will be a lot closer than some may think, but Obama has a strong chance of being the leader of the free world come November.


    0 of 8192 characters used
    Post Comment

    No comments yet.


    This website uses cookies

    As a user in the EEA, your approval is needed on a few things. To provide a better website experience, uses cookies (and other similar technologies) and may collect, process, and share personal data. Please choose which areas of our service you consent to our doing so.

    For more information on managing or withdrawing consents and how we handle data, visit our Privacy Policy at: ""

    Show Details
    HubPages Device IDThis is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons.
    LoginThis is necessary to sign in to the HubPages Service.
    Google RecaptchaThis is used to prevent bots and spam. (Privacy Policy)
    AkismetThis is used to detect comment spam. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide data on traffic to our website, all personally identifyable data is anonymized. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Traffic PixelThis is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized.
    Amazon Web ServicesThis is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized. (Privacy Policy)
    CloudflareThis is used to quickly and efficiently deliver files such as javascript, cascading style sheets, images, and videos. (Privacy Policy)
    Google Hosted LibrariesJavascript software libraries such as jQuery are loaded at endpoints on the or domains, for performance and efficiency reasons. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook LoginYou can use this to streamline signing up for, or signing in to your Hubpages account. No data is shared with Facebook unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    PaypalThis is used for a registered author who enrolls in the HubPages Earnings program and requests to be paid via PayPal. No data is shared with Paypal unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Google AdSense Host APIThis service allows you to sign up for or associate a Google AdSense account with HubPages, so that you can earn money from ads on your articles. No data is shared unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Google Custom SearchThis is feature allows you to search the site. (Privacy Policy)
    Google MapsSome articles have Google Maps embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    Google ChartsThis is used to display charts and graphs on articles and the author center. (Privacy Policy)
    Google YouTubeSome articles have YouTube videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    VimeoSome articles have Vimeo videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    MavenThis supports the Maven widget and search functionality. (Privacy Policy)
    Google AdSenseThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Google DoubleClickGoogle provides ad serving technology and runs an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Index ExchangeThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    SovrnThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook AdsThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Unified Ad MarketplaceThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    AppNexusThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    OpenxThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Rubicon ProjectThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    TripleLiftThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Say MediaWe partner with Say Media to deliver ad campaigns on our sites. (Privacy Policy)
    Remarketing PixelsWe may use remarketing pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to advertise the HubPages Service to people that have visited our sites.
    Conversion Tracking PixelsWe may use conversion tracking pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to identify when an advertisements has successfully resulted in the desired action, such as signing up for the HubPages Service or publishing an article on the HubPages Service.
    Author Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide traffic data and reports to the authors of articles on the HubPages Service. (Privacy Policy)
    ComscoreComScore is a media measurement and analytics company providing marketing data and analytics to enterprises, media and advertising agencies, and publishers. Non-consent will result in ComScore only processing obfuscated personal data. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Tracking PixelSome articles display amazon products as part of the Amazon Affiliate program, this pixel provides traffic statistics for those products (Privacy Policy)