Has Trump Done His Home Work on the Iran Nuclear Deal
The USA has decided under Trump that a showdown with Iran is required. What it hopes to achieve with this is anybody's guess, as Trump has just refused to certify that Iran is keeping its end of the nuclear deal.The stage is set for a showdown with Iran. The portents of this decision became evident when the CIA Director Micheal Pompeo made a rabid anti-Iran speech when he addressed a select gathering at the University of Texas just 3 days back. During his speech at Austin, the Director lambasted Iran as a terrorist state that was exporting terror in the Middle East. He also labeled it a totalitarian state. I am afraid he forgot that one of the allies of the USA in the Middle East is even more totalitarian than Iran.I am referring to Saudi Arabia. He also referred to the Iranian Republican Guard as a terrorist organization.
Trump also during his election campaign and further comments had dragged Obama over hot coals for signing the nuclear accord. He has always been of the view that the deal is seriously flawed and needs to be scrapped. Though he has been talking about scrapping the nuclear deal he has very little to say on what follow up is required and thus one wonders if he has done his homework as he takes steps to scrap the deal. He hasn't done it as yet and has only refused to sign that Iran is not doing its part in the nuclear deal. He has left the matter to Congress to decide on further course of action. One wonders why? as Trump had all the powers to act on the sanctions on his own. Maybe he is prepared to strike but not let Iran bleed, fearful of the consequences.More important he has not declared the Republican Guard as a terrorist organization.
Intertwined with the American reaction to Iran going nuclear is the tortuous relationship with that country right from 1979 when the Iranian revolution took place. This overthrew the Shah, who was an American puppet. Putting all its eggs in the basket of the Shah was a grievous mistake and the new regime in Tehran labeled the USA as the "Great Satan".
This was followed up by the Revolutionary Guards taking over a 100 US embassy personnel as hostages. Worse was to follow as the President Jimmy Carter ordered a resue that collapsed in the wilds of Tehran and the US cut a sorry figure in front of the world.
Thirty-eight years have passed but the hostility between the US and Iran has not lessened. The nuclear deal and its effects are a hangover from that period.
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran had embarked on an ambitious nuclear weapons program that alarmed many in the west.Israel was alarmed but it did not have the capability to destroy the Iranian reactors like it did in Iraq. It appealed to the USA, but the then presidents developed cold feet in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.
Obama had a way out and he along with his allies and Russia and China negotiated the nuclear deal that capped the Iranian program. It only capped it and did not dismantle it- this was the flaw which should have been rectified at that stage. Now the USA is in a bind and Trump is not happy with the deal. He has not signed the waiver, but that is all, as he has not abrogated the nuclear agreement. This is neither here nor there and one wonders what his plans are.
The ball is in the American court and Trump will have to think of something afresh for Iran is not Syria, where Trump could grandly announce the rocket attack as he ate a meal with the Chinese president Xi.