- Politics and Social Issues
Here We Go Again!: Will Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina Voters Really Decide The 2012 Presidential Election?
Is it still far too early to predict who wins in 2012?
And what about the very real effects an unpredictable can have?
With still six months to go before Election 2012, the pundits, acknowledged experts, and political savants are all at it again!
“34 or 35 states’ electors are already in the bag, so much so that these last months will be concentrated on the few remaining states which will determine the outcome of the presidential election in 2012." is one prognostication I heard recently.
Of those astute enough to know that there are still “unpredictables” any one of which could sway the outcome between Barack Hussein Obama and Willard Mitt Romney, some nonetheless pin the outcome on the voters in just four of the remaining 15 states and the District of Columbia (the latter having 3 votes in the Electoral College where the deciding votes will ultimately be cast.)
If the experts are correct, local political advertising in nearly 80% of states will be concentrated on congressional races which are critical to control of the U. S. House of Representatives and U. S. Senate. The heavy number of political phone calls may be reduced to appeals for donations, and polling of voter sentiments related to those congressional races.
Voters already fatigued by the political intrusions into their daily lives during the Republican Primaries battles, can catch their breath and hope for some relief before Obama and Romney go at it "tooth and nail."
On the other hand, voters in the predicted “swing states” with high percentages of undecided voters, can expect the bombardments to increase as “the days dwindle down to a precious few” and until the undecided percentages dwindle down too.
Thus far, the experts expect Romney’s choice of a Vice Presidential Candidate to have little impact on the final results. Far more feel that the final results will depend on how successful each campaign is in framing the bases for comparing Romney and Obama. For example, will the debate be about Obama’s performance as president, or on the effectiveness of his attacks on Romney? Will the debate focus on the jobs Romney created and saved while at Bain or the other individuals who lost their jobs as a result of Bain's actions?
Virginia has 13 electoral votes. Ohio has 18 electoral votes. Iowa has 6 electoral votes. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes. Those four states’ electoral votes would have accounted for just 52 of the 141 votes some experts called “in play.” If the 141 total was valid, then the 22 states that some other experts expected to be “up for grabs” almost six months before November 6, 2012 would play the deciding factors in an election which then was “still too close to call.”
And then, don’t forget the “unpredictables” which even the experts knew could sway the outcome to one candidate or another.
© 2012 Demas W. Jasper All rights reserved.