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How Far Will Obama Go for Iran?
How Far Will Obama and Iran Go?
In essence, metaphorically speaking, the current US-Iranian negotiations on their nuclear capabilities is that. Iran demands this or that or deal, Obama, gives in, to keep the negotiations going. If Obama refuses, the Iranian's tease by making subtle changes to the US demands to get Obama to acquiesce. It usually works.
In 2013, Obama admitted that his assessment of how soon Iran could obtain a nuclear bomb is a year or more and it was much more conservative estimate than Israeli intelligence. A few days ago, the negotiating team admitted Iran has 9400 centrifuges operating now daily. This is about 50% of them (they have 19,000). In early April, 2015,, a declassified report from the Obama negotiation team was forced to be released to the public under the Freedom Information Act. In it, America's chief nuclear scientist on the negotiation team, held a completely different point of view. His view was that Iran could enrich enough weapons grade uranium within three months. This is more in line with what the Israelis have been saying. What game is President Obama playing? Why is the truth not being told? Because Obama will go to any length to get a deal with Iran.
Before the talks began, America's position was Iran had to stop all uranium enrichment in 2013. Today, Iran has the right to enrich. The current agreement states that of the 10,000 kg that Iran has enriched uranium, it must be reduced to 300 kg. The remaining stock will be shipped out to Russia for safe keeping. Iran has said this will never happen. Even if Iran does agree to it, this is like sending it to a friend for safe keeping. Russia and Iran are friends and have huge trade arrangements. Can the US trust Putin to not secretly give it back? LOL. Of the 19000 centrifuges Iran has, at first, the US demanded they could only have between 500-1500. But, like a beautiful woman, Iran somehow got this demand to be increased to 6100. But worse is that US negotiators state that Iran's IR-2 centrifuges will not be allowed (they enrich 20 times faster). Iran has stated they these are exempt and will be operational as soon as the deal is signed!
Since 2013, three key objectives of the US were to close the nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Arak. In 2015, Arak, which produces plutonium to make a bomb, will be allowed to exist at a reduced capability. Fordow, which is deep under a mountain designed to ignore air attacks, will be used for "peaceful research" and allowed to keep 1000 centrifuges (no doubt, IR-2's). Just how much will Obama's team bend over? As far as Natanz, it will remain open and operational. The US has demanded that Iran halt their missile development (bought from Russia and China) to deliver the bombs using intercontinental missiles. Iran refused to talk about it. So, the US dropped the demand. Even though President Obama states that if Iran cheats after the agreement is signed, inspectors will be able to find it. This is a laughing point. Iran cheated just in November 2014, when inspectors caught them installing and operating their IR-5 centrifuges, that the West did not know about! The negotiations state that the inspectors will be allowed to go "wherever" and "without notice". Iran's supreme leader recently said inspectors will not be allowed on military bases. Hmm, I wonder where the secret enrichment will occur then?
The international sanctions are the only thing that forced Iran to the table. The deal will remove them in stages. Obama states any violations can have the sanctions snapped back without a problem. Part of the sanctions that got the world to impose sanctions on Iran came from Russia and China. Both countries consider Iran as more of a friend and not an enemy. Chinese products continue to enter Iran. Oddly, Iranians hate the Chinese cheap products and what them from the US and Europe. Russia is now selling Iran the S-300 air missile defense system that will make any air attack upon the nuclear sites very difficult. Putin had delayed the sale for years. Within a few months, the system will be there operated by Russian technicians until Iranians are trained. Once placed, Iran will probably become very uncooperative in inspections and breech any agreement.
President Obama is chasing this beautiful, Iranian woman. She is allusive and cunning. Her leader had made it clear that the negotiations will not create a new era in US-Iranian relations. They will not become cozy partners because they still consider the West a foe, led by the Great Satan, America. To prove this, they have seized a cargo ship that sent an SOS call to US Navy ships. But it was too late.
The sanctions took years to place. They make if very hard for Iran to conduct international business through banks, which is crippling. Its people, who love America, in general, suffer from them. Iran came to negotiations knowing that any government can be toppled if its population becomes more rebellious and angry. The sanctions should not be lifted until Iran concedes to more of US demands we originally had. What Obama is doing is "skirt chasing". The appeal of Iran becoming a closer friend in all aspects has clouded his perception of the real reality. He is not even aware of it, or elects to ignore it in pursuit of illusion.
Meanwhile, the Middle East countries that are not blinded, now want to have their own nuclear capability. Both the Saudis and Egyptians are talking to Pakistan about nuclear arms purchases. Let's not forget about the North Korean connection. Iran has sent their top nuclear researchers to live there to work with them. China has said they have underestimated just how many nuclear bombs NK has. It appears they have many more than previously thought. Now, they are working on a delivery system, as is Iran. NK could always simply sell Iran a few bombs and ship them to Iran. Nothing in the agreement even touches upon this!
The best any deal will do now, because it IS too late, is to forestall the inevitable. Like a person who is strong willed and stubborn to get what they want at any cost, Iran will get the bomb and the world will change because its government has nefarious intent.