How people exercise their franchise in an Election?
Elections in India!
How people will vote in India?
This is a vast subject which requires detailed analysis. Let us examine the different categories of voters who exercise their franchise in a general election in a vast democratic country like India. Many of the readers are aware of the heterogenous nature of Indian panorama. Most of the states formed after Independence is linguistic one. In each state, majority of the people speak one language peculiar to that state. There are different religious groups within a state. Of course, the Christians and Muslims are 'minorities' in most of the states. Certain states boast Christians like Goa and Nagaland. In certain states like UP, West Bengal and Bihar, the percentage of Muslims are considerably higher compared to other states. Also in Andhra Pradesh where Nizam ruled earlier, there are substantive population of Muslims mainly in the state capital. Kerala and Nicobar Islands too boast a good percentage of Muslims. The third category is backwardness. Of course Bihar is one state which was mostly backward, compared to other states both in literacy, health and agriculture. Some states like Orissa, Jharkand, Andhra and Karnataka boast mineral reserves. Compared to other states, Tamilnadu, Kerala, Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana are comparatively better in human indices. West Bengal has remained a backward area as well as the North Eastern states and Assam.
The above classifications are very essential to know the mind of people during elections. Utter poverty, water scarcity, inaccessibility to health and medical facilities, malnutrition, illiteracy are some of the factors that decide the apathy of voters. Public distribution system is a good scheme but all the voters have no access to Ration shops due to remoteness, hilly terrain, etc. Tribals are deprived of their land and livelihood due to notified forest lands. People who are poor and illiterate do not have access to many of the welfare schemes doled out by the government due to their ignorance. Hence the vital thing is providing free basic education to all children of certain age groups. Due to the politics prevailing in several villages and hamlets, only few children attend the schools. In most of the schools in every state, mid day meal program is in vogue. Hence the children attend the schools in order to fill up their stomach. These schemes are implemented well in certain states like Tamilnadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Bihar, Orissa, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab. Still the government has a lot to do to enroll more children in the schools and the children provided nutritional meals.
In Tamilnadu, the politics is between the Dravidian parties. It is a long time, the Congress has made its presence in the state without the aid of any allies. BJP is a new entrant as far as Tamilnadu, Andhra and Kerala is concerned. There are many small parties in the prey. In Andhra, the Congress lost their credibility in the Telengana issue. It earned the wreath of people living in other parts. The BJP tried to fish in the troubled state with the aid of Telugu Desam party. There is considerable Muslim votes in Andhra. Naxalite movement has eroded the prospects of many parties in the past. Hence, it is difficult to guess the trend of voting both in Telengana and Seemandara, Many people of Andhra want an united Andhra and hence the Telengana struggle will decide the fortunes of all parties here.
In Tamilnadu, though the BJP has stitched a last minute alliance with certain local parties, the outcome is doubtful due to the mass following to AIADMK, headed by CM Jayalalitha and the DMK headed by Mr.M.Karunanidhi. The results will be split up but AIADMK will garner more seats!
In Bihar, though NItish Kumar has done a good work, his severing connections with the BJP, retarded his prospects and Lallu Prasad Yadav of RJD will gain this time due to fractured votes. People have forgotten the fodder scam and they look for a prominent leader. BJP and RJD has got equal chances in Bihar.
Rajasthan, MP, Chattisgarh and Punjab will go the BJP way due to the Modi wave. Congress will get a severe battering in all the southern states excepting Karnataka. Delhi is one state which will vote for BJP this time. Though Arvind Kejriwal was famous earlier, this time his AAP will be down due to the impulsive nature of its leader. Orissa, Goa and other states may turn around to Modi's wave. West Bengal and other North Eastern states will not offer much solace to BJP.
In this election, the votes of the rural populace will decide. The metros will see a fierce battle between Congress, BJP, Shivsena etc. This time, Mumbaikar will vote for BJP-Sena campaign. In West Bengal, Mamta Banerjee will call the shots. Tripura may go the Communists.Overall, the poor illiterate voter will be hoodwinked by the affluence local leaders to vote for a particular candidate. Of course, caste equations also will play its part. But it is difficult to gauge the pulse of educated urban voters since they will decide pragmatically viewing the entire election scenario and the strength of the candidates.
The over all figure will turn around like this: BJP=180 to 200 seats; Congress 80 to 100 seats; The third front may garner around 220 seats which comprise the SP, BSP, BJD, AiADMK, DMK and the Communists. There is no cohesion or co-operation between the third front candidates and hence it is highly doubtful whether the third front can stake their claim. BJP would stitch up a post poll alliance to form the government!