India, after the Elections, a case study!
Post election likely scenario in India.
It will not be easy either for BJP or Modi.
By tomorrow evening 50% of polling in India would be over. In another 23 days, the fate of the many contenders in this election would be decided. There will be celebrations in some pockets and a corresponding grief will rule the minds of losers. Many prominent figures will lose and some results will be astounding. Party wise, there will be jubilation in the BJP headquarters with crackers bursting to celebrate the occasion. Naturally there will be a hushed silence prevailing in the Congress Headquarters.
Depending upon the number of seats gained by BJP and its allies, India may witness many twists and turns in the formation of government in the center. Some bureaucrats who were loyal to Congress will face transfers to inconsequtional posts. There will be jubilation till the cabinet is formed. There will be heartburn among the many aspirants to plum posts. The allies who filled up the magic figure of 273 will be aiming for powerful portfolios. The influence of RSS will be evident in the cabinet formation. It may not be easy for the PM designate to negotiate all the curves smoothly till the portfolios are allocated. There will be sulking among many key alleys. It is not always easy to pacify all. The PM designate will be spending sleepless nights since all along; it was a one man show.
Congress will be issuing statements thanking the voters who elected their MPs from Congress. It will be stocktaking time for Congress. They have plenty of time till another election. There will be bickering all-around. The present PM will be relieved of his head aches in governing the vast country with multitude of dissensions everywhere both within the party and outside. What he can do? He is very soft person. He cannot blame any but everyone will blame him. Narendra Modi may feel that being a CM of a state is not that much troublesome? Everybody will be demanding something from the PM. I feel that he has been made a scapegoat since none is capable of holding the post in the present juncture. Advani has become old and others are leaders only for namesake.
Modi’s name was not that much prominent before BJP selected him as a key person to handle the election and subsequently as its PM candidate. It is much doubtful whether Modi himself will be happy to man the post. He has singlehandedly attended many meetings and conducted many rallies. Only a coterie of leaders was with him like BJP President Rajnath Singh and Arun Jaitley. Other leaders mostly avoided the mention of Modi. They knew well that it will be an autocratic rule after the election. None dared to defy Modi nor anyone willing to follow him baring few confidants of Modi.
Congress never thought that they will land to such an abysmal level. Everyone in the party has to be blamed for the sorry condition of Congress. None bothered about the PM. None listened to him and all cabinet ministers were behaving as though they are independent power centers. This is the woe of the party. Corruption and nepotism was rampant in the party. Neither Sonia Gandhi could reign on them. There was no cooperation among its rank and file. Only in the selection of Chief Ministers, the high command has a say. Hence there was no control anywhere. The allies of Congress were blackmailing the party knowing their weak stand and strength in the Parliament. Hence whenever there was a threatening from the allies, outsiders like the BSP and SP came to the aid of Congress. This was the pathetic condition of Congress since they could not get enough majorities in the Parliament.
The case of the BJP will remain more or less similar, if it is not able to win a decent number of MP seats on their own. It will remain at the mercy of allies. In such a scenario, Modi cannot rule the country with an iron hand. He has to bend backwards sometime to save the government. This was what happened in the earlier regime of Congress. Hence Modi is requesting for a comfortable majority of 300+ to retain the identity of BJP and implement the policies of government!