- Politics and Social Issues
Iran and Hezbollah Open New Front in Syrian War
While none of this is unexpected, it is an indication that the Syrian War is growing and changing as Syria weakens, Iran with its Hezbollah terrorist group fill the void and gradually take more control in Homs and along the Golan. The Assad regime cannot fight everywhere and its main focus really is around Damascus, but Assad knows he cannot sustain even that unless surrounding areas are held with friendly forces, these are Hezbollah and Iran, which have already sent a combined strength of 10,000 armed militia or special forces to fight rebels in border areas on the Golan and Homs. Event he rebels see the subtle change- they are fighting Iranians, not Syrians more often as Iran sends in equipment flying over Iraq, which has simply looked the other way much to the anger of the US, which saved the country from Saddam- how ironic!
All this makes sense, an Syria-Iran-Lebanon front that could be created by Iran's Hezbollah either from attacking from southern Lebanon with its tens of thousands rockets or areas of Golan in a total Jihad against Israel, meanwhile, Syria-Iran continues to hammer away at the al-Qaeda rebels and Free Syrian Army. This would draw Israel into the the war for real and it could redirect the efforts of Nusra rebels who are fighting Syrians to join the Jihad against Israel, leaving only the Free Syrian Rebels to battle Assad. Iran wants to lure Israel into the war so it can have an excuse to fight it from a defensive posture, helping its friend, Hezbollah.
Lebanon has already stated that if Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah targets in their country it is all out war again. One can see how the scenario could play out drawing in the US or NATO and Russia for certainty. Russia has warned Israel that further air attacks into Syria force the Russians to intervene more. The S-300 batteries that are arriving in Syria from Russia could down an Israeli jet, this would draw Israel into the war, as well.
If Israel wee to enter the fray from either scenario, America would not be far behind but would be very reluctant. If Russia were to enter into the war further, America would have to act more boldly than it has. Assad has indicated that he does plan to try to send more sophisticated rockets and weapons to Hezbollah, so the writing is on the wall.
This war has become "dare I do" theme, each time, escalating tensions. With Iran-Russia fully on Syria's side, neither country seems willing to let Assad be defeated and peace seems to be no option, there is only one way it will play out.--an expanding regional war.