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Iran's Critical Time

Updated on June 22, 2012

With the failure of the Moscow talks about stopping Iranian nuclear enrichment, the critical window of time is upon the world. At first, the West indicated that Iran must stop all enrichment, then, waffled in the second meeting, saying they could enrich if under 20% (90%+ is needed for weapons grade).

Since April, Iran has pulled off the big stall and Obama has enabled them by trying to reach a concession. Meanwhile, Iran's 9000 centrifuges continue to enrich towards the 90% needed for a nuclear bomb. They have moved most of them into hardened, underground, facilities that make it harder to destroy, if at all. According to government testimony recently, Iran will have enough weapons grade uranium within 40-90 days for a few bombs.

On July 1, the oil sanctions will hit Iran reducing their exports by 18% and causing their economy to lose hundreds of millions in dollars. We'll see if this does have a significant impact on their economy. Israel remains on the leash regarding any military attack. It was always a hard mission, but months have passed now, making it even harder. Israel will not strike now because of the USA asking it not to and because there is debate within that country about it and repercussions. Any attack would unleash a firestorm worse than now in Syria. It would add to it. It is unlikely that Israel would attack in July because of the new oil sanctions taking effect. Any attack would not be able to destroy all of their already enriched material.

That leaves August and September. It is hard to see anything good happening. Iran will stall as they enrich, unless the population riots in the streets, which is doubtful. Any attack may become the modern "A Bridge Too Far", an Allied 1944 operation that had promise but filled with bad luck and high losses that utterly failed. Unless the Israeli attack is able to locate and destroy all of the enriched material hidden in underground bunkers, it would be a failure, for some would exist enough to make nuclear bombs. Even if all were destroyed, at best, a delay would occur until Iran started the whole enrichment again.

The thing is that Israel is impatient. It feels desperate. Something, must be done, hence, the military option- a hail Mary pass into the end zone.


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