Israel Vs Iran: Has Israel Missed the Bus in Not attacking Iran Earlier?
War With Iran
Iran is a Muslim state that has vowed to erase Israel from the map of the Middle East. Despite this statement appearing ludicrous , yet the fact is it cannot be dismissed out of hand as Iran is developing nuclear weapons.
Israel and danger from Iran
Israel is alarmed and one had expected that by now Israel would have struck at Iran's nuclear facilities at least two year back. But it has not happened, mainly because the USA the biggest partner of Israel had perhaps dragged its feet in supporting an attack on Iran. The US has positioned a carrier group of the Iran coast, but it has done precious little other than showing the flag. In the meanwhile Iran is continuing to strengthen itself.
Israel misssed Speed and Surprise.
One of the principles of war as enunciated by Clausewitz is surprise and speed. In both these Israel has faulted. By waiting for over 2 year the Israelis have made their task that much harder. In real terms Turkey and Saudi Arabia will give tacit support and overflight facilities to Israel, but it is Israel that has to bite the bullet. With Obama at the helm of affairs at the moment a US led attack on Iran does to my mind appear remote. In any case by delaying the inevitable the chances of total victory are that much less, with Russia and China backing Iran.
The Fatal Delay
In case Israel has to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, delay is fatal. One fails to realize why it was not done. In the meantime Iran is beefing itself and made bomb proof shelters for its nuclear facilities. Its 4 Kilo class submarines are moving in the strait of Hormuz to sink shipping and block the strait that carries 20% of oil out to the world. It's a messy situation and one wonders what the future will bring., but its not going to be easy.
One thing is clear an attack on Iran won't be a cake walk like in Libya. I have no doubt that Iran will be defeated, but in defeat there may be victory as Israel will be seen as an aggressor and the world will not be the same again.
Hostility of Iran towards Israel
The hostility of Iran will not end and many Muslims will feel that some revenge on Israel is required. It could mean greater terrorist activity and Israel will have to steel itself for another 50 years. That is a long time as Israel, friendless in the Middle East may have no easy way out.
Missed Biting the Bullet
The US with a history of backing the wrong horses may be wondering what to do. This could be a stepping stone towards the eclipse of the USA as a world power. For this the USA has only itself to blame. Fighting useless wars in Iraq and Libya and draining the economy. I envy the Israeli leadership which are sitting on the horns of a dilemma. To bite the bullet or let it go. Both ways there is no respite for Israel
The Present Scenario
The victory over large areas of Iraq by the ISIS has queered the pitch for Israel. The ISIS are Sunni and Iran is against them. Thus the primary focus for Iran has shifted to Iraq, where Iran cannot allow a Sunni takeover as Iran is Shia.
This also gives respite to Israel and it can think out of box solutions to resolve the deadly situation in Iraq. In any case an attack by Israel on Iraq will not be an option right now.