- Politics and Social Issues
New Alliances in the Middle East Over the U.S.- Iran Nuclear Treaty
Many feel that at some point, the USA and Iran will reach a mutual agreement over their nuclear enrichment policy preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb. Some still feel Iran can get the bomb in a year, yet, other reports indicate Iran already has enough enriched material for 1-2 bombs and simply wants more time to enrich more uranium. Still others feel Iran is only months away.
Whatever the the truth is, not all US alliances are happy with the US quest to get a poor deal with Iran to control the damage in exchange for lifting the sanctions that force Iran to the treaty table.
The new alliances formed include Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and France. It is an odd couple, but the USA is forcing them by so eagerly pursuing a deal with Iran after Oabma backed down from attacking Syria for using gas that killed 1600. Both issues have made former allies distant themselves and now know they cannot always rely on the US.
France, Saudi Arabia and Israel would share America’s responsibility for the major crises erupting in the region, which none of them would be able to control since America seems to have no appetite for military actions after being in war for 10 years. On Oct. 9, France neck challenged the American proposal for a deal with Iran.The French president also chose to visit Israel at a moment of high vocal discord between the Obama administration and Binyamin Netanyahu. France's president is going to meet with Russia's president, Putin, to try to convince Russia to also join the new alliance, which would be a game changer. Russia is no doubt tempted, they want more influence in the Middle East after losing much of it in the 70's. Putin may support it as another way to display is disdain for Obama.
Just recently, the Gulf Emirates and Saudi Arabia have asked Israel to provide them with a military shield over the region and Persian Gulf in absence of the US. How this would work is unclear, but France's president has already said that according to French intelligence, Iran already as a nuclear bomb, this seems to be supported by other independed reports. Is the US simply refusing to believe the truth? So desperate to do damage control for doing nothing for a year? Maybe or maybe, probably? The damage control would be to not allow Iran to create anymore nuclear bombs, which does make sense in order to lift economic sanctions on them. But the sanctions are working so well, Iran is being forced into this situation. Easing this leverage for Iranian concessions that can be reversed later easily is a stupid policy.
Saudi Arabia is now pursuing weapon deals with France because of their unhappiness with US policy in the region and Egypt is inviting the Russians back for purchasing weapons since the US is withholding part of its billions in aid.
Just how Israel would provide aircover over the vast region would mean their aircraft would have to be based in Saudi Arabia and create joint force with them. Should Russia also join the new alliance, this could be a double-edged sword for they have millions of dollars in contracts with Iran and a major weapons supplier to them. It is hard to believe they could be trusted or take action against Iran because it is against their own interests.