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No Clear Path

Updated on November 3, 2012

Romney's Rocky Road

The 2012 Presidential Election is a few days away. And to me it is a referendum on the direction America wishes to take. On one hand you have the slow, if slightly stymied progress that President Obama has made. On the other you have the reactionary ideas of Mitt Romney.

It has been a hard-fought election, and with the near unlimited power corps have to influence the process, the fact that Obama has kept things close is a testament to his skill and the Democratic party base.

The race will likely come down to a few "Toss-Up" states. Real Clear Politics shows 146 electoral votes as "toss-ups", but some polls I see make the number of votes "in play" a lot less. Many polls I have seen put Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada in Obama's camp, which gives him 233. Virginia and North Carolina are seen as in Romney's corner, giving him 219.

That leaves 86 votes in doubt; Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. For Romney to win he would need to sweep 54 of those, and many polls show Pennsylvania's 20 votes as in Obama's favor, Ohio if the same union forces who defeated that states Wisconsin-style attack on collective bargaining can mobilize the way they did could put those 18 votes in Obama' camp. Those two states would leave Obama with 261, a mere 9 votes shy.

Much like in 2000, Florida could be the determining vote. That state's 29 votes could truly tip the compass.

The storm Sandy could become a factor, voters in the urban areas that make up the Democratic base in many Northeast states could have difficulty getting to the polls. There may be disputes over ballots as well.

Could we see a victory by either candidate tainted a bit? Perhaps, but no matter what happens, I'll be ready to accept and act upon the outcome.


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    • lrc7815 profile image

      Linda Crist 5 years ago from Central Virginia careful what you promise. You've done your homework well and laid it out clearly. I will be glad when it is really over and we can just deal with the outcome. Voted up!