- Politics and Social Issues»
- Politics & Political Science
Now, it is time for exit polls!
Likely results of Indian general elections in exit polls.
What the exit polls will reveal?
Well, the great drama of elections in India is about to conclude and the curtains will fall after the last phase of elections on 12th May. The election commission has given the go ahead for publishing exit polls after the conclusion of elections on 12th May. Now the election fever over, the candidates will be waiting with bated breath for the dawn of 16th May. Since the electronic counting machines were used, the trend of the results would be out by 11 AM on 16th May 2014. There are many probabilities of the outcome of the general elections.
All will agree that it is pure 'media wave' on which Narendra Modi sailed comfortably so far. But it is true that urban voters will be swayed by the media reports. The rural population which comprise around 70% may not have that much exposure to media blitz. Their mindset depends upon many factors like their economic conditions, access to barest minimum essentials for life like food, water, medicines and a roof to protect from the vagaries of weather. Though many governments in the past had planned well to provide the basic essentials to the remotest habitats in far of places, black marketing of subsidized rice, wheat and cereals by middleman and agents have resulted in the deprivation of the government doles to the entire poor population of the country.The parties who rule may boast statistics to prove that many crores of rupees have been allotted in budget for food, education, water, medicine and shelter, the reality is more than 20% of poor are unaware or deprived of the government schemes. Corruption is the main culprit which eats major share of the government schemes.
Hence the incumbent government faced a large number of scams due to laxity in administration. Corruption is not limited to lower levels of bureaucracy. From Cabinet Ministers to Secretary level Officers, many were engaged in nefarious practices due to weak government. It is the coalition politics which decide the policy of the government. The ruling party was at the mercy of allies who blackmailed the ruling party on many occasions during the past ten years of governance. Hence, the Prime Minister, though a honest man received all brickbats hurled in the parliament from the opposition when scams after scams unfolded! No government has so far received so much of bad name as Congress government had. The media has unveiled many scams to the consternation of the ruling party. Even the constitutional authorities like the Comptroller and Auditor General has highlighted the scams in his reports which were tabled in Parliament. Hence the people were disgruntled about the present government in center. Psychologically, the Congress has lost the elections. Only Rahul Gandhi tried to bolster the spirit of the party in his meetings. Everyone in Congress knew the fate beforehand and hence they were willing to done the role of opposition in the Parliament.
When this is the case in Center, there is no brightening news from the states which were ruled by Congress in coalition with allies. In Haryana, revelations about the favors Robert Vadra received from the Haryana government shook the Parliament. The Officer who has recorded all this has been shifted out of his department to some inconsequential post. The exposure has dented the image of Congress in the state. In Andhra Pradesh, the Telengana issue has spoiled the chances of Congress to gain even one or two seats. In Tamilnadu, there were lot of factions in the Congress. Hence the ruling party headed by AIADMK chief Jayalalitha is poised for a comfortable win. Overall, the Congress has lost its credibility due to incumbancy factor and corruption issues.
The entry of Anna Hazare who was instrumental in bringing an important bill to curb corruption has been sidelined for two years. Finding that the mass is with him, the government reluctantly passed those bills after diluting certain clauses. Aam Admi party, a nascent one created flutters in Indian politics by mobilizing huge supports from the masses for fighting corruption in government and bureaucracy. In their first elections to Delhi government, the party ensured comfortable victory of 28 seats out of total 70 seats. Though they had high aims, the impulsive nature of its leader landed them in trouble. But in urban voters, Arvind Kejriwal has created an interest in transparent governments. After resigning the Chief Minister post, Arvind Kejriwal contested for Parliament. After defeating three time Chief Minister, Sheila Dixit, Arvind is pitted against the mighty Narendra Modi at Varanasi.
The BJP, which projected Modi as its PM candidate is capable of mobilizing election funds from many Corporates and Industrialists. The party had spent around 10000 crores for advertisements alone in the TVs, Newspapers, Internet and social media. Many technocrats have been retained to spread the name of Modi around the nook and corner of the country. Hence it is not exaggeration that the poll predictions of many surveys points to Modi and BJP gaining substantial number of votes in this election.
Let us analyze certain points. Even the poll predictions could be biased due to financial considerations to influence the mindset of the people at large. When everybody points to one man, the fence sitters will surely go with him. Staunch loyalists of certain parties do not cross over to the other sides. The mindset of Muslims is unpredictable. Modi is seen as an hardcore Hindutva figure with RSS background. Hence it is not possible to influence the mindset of Muslims with mere rhetoric speeches. Many consider Modi as a polarizing figure in Indian politics. However much he tells the people, he treats everyone equal, it is doubtfull how he will behave once he occupy the post of PM?
The exit polls will be mostly in this pattern: BJP 170 to 180 seats; BJP allies 40 to 50 seats.The Congress may garner around 70 to 90 seats. Congress allies 20 to 30 seats.AIADMK 20-25 seats; DMK 5 -9 seats; Trinamool Congress 30-35 seats. SP in UP 10-15 seats; BSP in UP 15-20 seats. Aam Admi Party 5-10 seats. Communists and other regional parties, the remaining seats.
In such a scenario, the BJP has to search for post election partners depending upon the maximum gainers. In Andhra pradesh, Bihar and Orissa, the results will be mixed. In North east, the BJP may get 2-5 seats. In the overall position, the BJP and allies may gather upto 230 seats which is not sufficient to form a majority government. It will be a case of Congress as in the previous elections. The BJP can not implicitly execute its pet policies since it will be at the mercy of partners who will taunt BJP time and again. Congress on its part, sitting in the opposition is capable of creating troubles to the government in every conceivable ways! Let us hope that the next government in India is a stable one and implement people's policies instead of carrying out its own core Hindutva or RSS policies!