Obama, Re-election and Iran
Obama and Iran
Obama is in his last lap of the Presidency. He has announced he will stand for re-election and most thinkers and critics think he has a chance to win the election, albeit with a slim majority. But what may ultimately decide the presidency for Obama is as to how he will handle Iran. Will he join the drum beats of a war against Iran or soft peddle the issue and contain Iran?
There is no doubt that Iran is the number one headache for the USA in the last year of Obama’s presidency. It is imperative that Obama formulate his own policy in dealing with Iran. If he handles Iran skillfully there is a good chance that he will romp home in 2012.
Obama’s options are limited. Bush by unleashing the war in Iraq has pushed Obama and the USA into a corner. Ten years down the line with almost 5000 dead and 35000 injured the battle in Iraq was at best a Pyrrhic victory. The US has with drawn but it has left behind a mess. There is an intense Sunni- Shia divide and there is every chance that a civil war can erupt and the gainer is Iran. If the Iranian leadership plays their cards adroitly they could have a major influence in Shia dominated areas of Iraq. All this thanks to George Bush.
The US has the 5th fleet in position, but another war won’t be a cake walk like in Iraq. Iran is cocky and threatening, maybe because they are on the threshold of having a nuclear weapon. But that alone cannot be a reason for their bravado. One other reason could be the role of Russia and China. Perhaps Iran is heartened by their support.
The USA is in a dilemma and Obama must be wondering what to do. If he decides on war he must be wondering about the role of China and Russia. His better option is to try and treat Iran with a softer option and try and contain it. There is an old saying that sometimes the sins of the father come on his son. In this case the sins of George Bush have come to rest squarely on Obama. One hopes Obama can weather the coming storm