Planning the Israeli Attack on Iran and the Dirty Bomb Problem
The US CIA has leaked some information on how the Israeli airforce may attack Iran to stop their nuclear weapons program. First, the CIA is leaking it because they hope to stop it from happening because the info will no doubt be seen in Iran. Second, any Israeli attack will only stop or slow the Iranian enrichment of uranium by one or 2 years max, assuming the IDF attack goes off well.
The IDF plans most likely will have at least 100 aircraft in the attack, probably at intervals, as a one mass take off would be obvious. The IDF must somehow make sure the attack is a surprise, maybe using ECM jamming of Iranian detection. It just seems like something would go wrong for it to be a total shock to Iran with so much notice. The IDF would attack only 8-10 sites, each with at least 12-16 planes. When the IDF attacked the Syrian nuclear site being built by North Korea and Iran, 16 planes flew and destroyed it. The Iranian targets would have to be the KEY nuclear ones: Natanz, Isfahar, Fordow (Qum), and Arak. The non-nuclear sites associated with this program would also be hit with Parchim being on it and others. The flight plan would most likely be the southern approach across the Persian Gulf. The IDF would have to get permission to fly over Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Both quietly agree with Israel about Iran not having an atomic bomb, so permission would occur. The 1000 mile flight would require the use of many large tankers to refuel in mid-air. This would be an area where mishaps occur.
The Dirty Bomb
The real threat, or maybe, the other real threat is a nefarious group obtains 25 kg of enriched uranium or 8 kg of plutonium.This should not be that hard because reports indicate that there are 4.4 million lbs. of stockpiled weapons grade material in the world! That is enough to make 100,000 nuclear bombs. This stockpile is located in over 32 countries. Naturally, the US and Russia have the most, but many other small countries do have some. When the USSR collapsed in 1991 and became Russia, they had 22,000 nuclear weapons in storage. During the following years, most feel this stockpile was poorly guarded and some was sold or stolen, yet, so far, none of the known terror groups have managed to create the dirty.
In any case, the dirty bomb still is the best poor man's nuclear bomb. In a recent study, if the city of San Jose, CA (over a million) was subjected to this sort of attack, it would kill 60,000 people and cost $100 billion in damages. Scary stuff and you know those who are jihadists are seeking this sort of power.