Polls Show Romney Cannot Beat Obama (But Ron Paul Can). Ryan Choice Throws Election to Obama
If there is one rule of competent presidential campaign strategy, it is that as soon as you nail down your base, you begin to move toward the center. You use your choice for vice president to balance your ticket in areas where you are weak. You choose someone from a different geographical region.
You choose a woman, as John McCain did, if you need to appeal more to women. Or a Texas Democrat like LBJ if you are from New England like JFK. Romney's choice of Paul Ryan for vice president breaks all these rules down the line.
The choice of Paul Ryan only shows what some are theorizing, that the GOP establishment is actually happy with Obama, and is planning to lose to him.
A recent poll in the Detroit Free Press seems to indicate that many people understand that the fix is in:
"Most Americans -- 58% -- expect Obama to win a second term, including more than a quarter of Romney's supporters, a new Associated Press-GfK poll found."
And why not? Obama has secured and deflected attention from bank bail-outs, projected by former Inspector General of TARP Neil Barosky to cost as much as $23 trillion all told. In recent news, revealed by Ron Paul's partial audit of the Federal Reserve, it turns out that the Fed recently bail-out more banks, including foreign ones, to the tune of another $16 trillion.
Better yet, Obama will never get blamed for any of this. He has overseen the passage of NDAA indefinite military detention of American citizens, the introduction of drones into American skies, and the squashing of torture and war crimes probes against former Bush administration officials, all with nary a peep from his own party.
To the GOP establishment, if not the GOP base, Obama is a magician. He is able to pull off stunts which would probably get their own candidate impeached. Need a war in Afghanistan escalated? No problem. Watch this. It might take a Republican to start a war, but it takes a Democrat to keep it going, as LBJ showed during Vietnam.
Now, to the utter astonishment of strategists who know that the key to winning is getting more votes than the other guy, Romney seems to be doing everything he can to mobilize disaffected Obama voters who vowed to sit out the election after Obama's hard turn to the right. Now they see their very lives threatened by bringing the black-masked Medicare Executioner up onto the stage.
Paul Ryan is the poster boy for Republican budgets which overlook the trillions for the bail-outs to banks while proclaiming Medicare as the problem. Ryan's political signature is the attempt to transform Medicare from a guaranteed set of benefits to a voucher program, in which you are given a voucher to by junk private insurance. It's not hard to see the plan, unless you just fell off the turnip truck: first make it a voucher, then start cutting the vouchers.
One must wonder if the GOP establishment really wants to win the election. Ryan does nothing to pull in all-important independents and moderate liberals who might have voted for Romney. If Romney's past pro-choice credentials and support for RomneyCare made him a viable option for these voters, he just lost many of them. Ryan is a Tea Party darling, but that is not what Romney needs right now. An August 10th Fox report says:
"Independents are twice as likely to say they are comfortable with Obama (33 percent) than with Romney (16 percent) as president."
Fox News said:
"The president would take 49 percent of the vote compared to Romney's 40 percent in a head-to-head matchup if the election were held today, the poll found. Last month, Obama had a four percentage-point edge of 45 percent to 41 percent. This marks the second time this year the president has had a lead outside the poll’s margin of sampling error. Obama’s advantage comes largely from increased support among independents, who now pick him over Romney by 11 percentage points."
That poll was before the choice of Ryan, which was announced on August 11th. In the two most critical swing states, Ohio and Florida, where Medicare is extraordinarily popular, Romney is running behind Obama. In Ohio, where the election between Bush and Kerry in 2004 was won by Bush, Obama is running a full 6 points ahead of Romney, well outside the margin of error of about 3%, in a Quinnipiac College poll. Romney's deficit in Florida, which varies from 3 points behind this week to 6 points behind in July, it is hard to see how threatening Medicare would shore up this vital state, as the state with the nation's most senior population.
"It's difficult to see a scenario where Romney wins without a victory in Florida, which offers 29 electoral votes."
Obama has a double digit lead of 11 points in another swing state, Pennsylvania. Romney does not have a double digit lead anywhere. And although a recent spate of articles seem intent on showing that something more like a real contest is taking place, the numbers behind the headlines are anything but the "resurgence" of the Romney campaign that one Washington Times article portrays, with Obama's lead shrinking from 6.5% over Romney to 5.4% in Michigan, the state Romney is from.
Although many states show a statistical tie between Romney and Obama, that is, showings within the margin of error, the two or three points almost always break toward Obama.
All this and Obama has not even begun to hammer at Romney's Bain Capital's brand of vulture capitalism. Of course Obama is a hypocrite, because he is financed by the same Wall Street investment bankers. But Romney actually spent a good part of his life doing this stuff. Any American who was ever "downsized" in his or her life can thank people like Willard Romney.
On the other hand, Republican candidate Ron Paul beats, or statistically ties, Obama in head-to-head polls. Paul steals the youth Romney does terrible at, voters under 35-years-old (52 percent to 41 percent.) Paul draws crowds that Mick Jagger would admire. One Fox News poll puts Obama ahead of Romney by nearly ten points.
Ron Paul Rally, Strauss Stadium UCLA
Why We Need Ron Paul
To put the Federal Reserve's new $16 trillion bail-out of banks, many of which are not even American banks, in context, the entire yearly budget for the federal government is about $4 trillion, including the Pentagon. Therefore $16 trillion could have paid for a four year tax holiday for everyone in the nation, rich and poor alike.
Under Obama's watch, this slid through unnoticed, and is little-noticed even now.
Under the Obama Justice Department, it has been announced that there will be no prosecution of Goldman-Sachs executives in the Abacus scandal. The DOJ just said:
"based on the law and evidence as they exist at this time, there is not a viable basis to bring a criminal prosecution..."
Attorney General Eric Holder takes this position even though Robert Khuzami, Director of the Division of Enforcement at the SEC, said in a press release on Abacus:
"The product was new and complex but the deception and conflicts are old and simple...Goldman wrongly permitted a client that was betting against the mortgage market to heavily influence which mortgage securities to include in an investment portfolio, while telling other investors that the securities were selected by an independent, objective third party."
In other words, investors in ABACUS were told that their investment would go up while the salesmen who sold it to them had already placed bets that it would go down. Investors lost more than $1 billion.
The left might be howling were a Republican president to pull Justice Department dogs off a scandal that even the SEC thinks is over the top. Yet Obama wears a Teflon coat. Why wouldn't the GOP establishment be happy with another four years of Obama? And despite all this, he remains the perfect foil, whom right-wing radio can cast as a "socialist" for public consumption.
Meanwhile Dr. Ron Paul alone keeps trying to explain how much a "trillion" is.
Now after admitting that Ron Paul has at least the five-state "plurality" necessary to be nominated at the Republican Convention, the RNC is trying to invalidate many of Paul's wins and change the number needed from five to eight.
Ben Swann on RNC Dirty Tricks Against Ron Paul
"I felt the Maine delegates selected at the Maine Convention should be seated in Tampa. It is unfortunate that not all of these delegates will be seated."
The Louisiana state convention, where Paul won a plurality of delegates, was even marred by the broken bones of Paul supporters, arrested by off-duty police officers allegedly hired by state GOP officials. Newly elected Paul committee chairmen are seen being attacked and arrested as they assume the posts they had just won.
Ron Paul Delegates Attacked in Louisiana
Interestingly, the entire season of shenanigans against Paul may betray the GOP establishment's sense of weakness. The Tampa Tribune recently let slip that "Romney's greatest fear could be a movement to nominate Ron Paul from the floor of the convention."
This means that the planned coronation of Romney on Monday may rest on the careful management of perceptions. The mass realization by the rank-and-file that the GOP establishment does not represent them, and that they are being led down a primrose path to another four years of Obama, would be disastrous.
Also on Paul's side are the fiscal conservatives who know there in not a dime's worth of difference in Obama's and Romney's budget "reduction" plans, in the face of the continued devaluation of the currency by leaps and bounds through $16 trillion bail-outs and the issuance of debt to China. Some predict we are careening toward economic disaster, and CNBC reported in 2010 that the Pentagon is even war-gaming economic chaos scenarios.
Pentagon War-Gaming Economic Chaos
This comes two years after the widely-circulated remarks by Congressman Brad Sherman (D-CA) that unnamed parties had warned Congress, as it deliberated the 2008 TARP bail-outs, that if it did not pass, that:
"the sky would fall, the market would drop two or three thousand points the first day, another couple thousand the second day. And a few members were even told that there would be martial law in America if we voted no."
If there were ever a time for grassroots Republicans to call their local GOP officials' offices and track down their cellphone numbers in Tampa, it's now (DIRECTORY HERE.) A recent ruling by RNC legal counsel affirms that delegates are unbound, even on the first vote, as representative, as opposed to direct, democracy requires.
If Paul were truly the marginal figure the GOP establishment has tried to make him out to be, why bother to play dirty? Only poker players who hold weak hands need to cheat. Party leaders may be praying that Conservative Nation does not see the bluff.