President Trump's Policy on Iran
Trump sent an aircraft carrier group, B-52 bombers, Patriot missiles, and things that remain secret to the Persian Gulf area of operations where 80% of the world's shipping of oil passes through. The intelligence received was so secret, that for a full week, even the Foreign Relations Committee, remained in the dark about why. At first, the British dissed the Trump reasons and then magically reversed themselves. Both American and British personnel were ordered to leave the area.
As there were rumors of war abound and sending 120,000 American troops somewhere over there, both Iran and the US were beating their war chests like to gangsters. Each one continues to dare the other to make the first military move. Meanwhile, Trump backs down the rhetoric and suggests to Iran that maybe talking might help. Iran simply gives Trump the big FU.
This is Trump's foreign policy on a country he hates for religious and terrorism reasons. Trump's sanctions are making life for average Iranians horrible, let alone the government who makes money selling their oil. Despite the total ban on allied nations from buying this oil, which is very effective, China, Russia, Turkey, India continue to disobey it. Many of these countries did receive a "waiver" from the ban for political reasons.
Granted, Iran's government and their proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen, also make war against those Iran hates. Iran is responsible for the recent oil tanker attacks in that area, the targets being Saudi tankers. They also used their drones, not from Iran, but from Yemen, to bomb Saudi oil lines running from oil fields. There is no doubt that their proxies will be sending more rockets towards Israel. They can interdict the Hormuz Straits. Even if one or two oil tankers are sunk in those narrow straits, the impact would be huge, just like it was in 1990 when they did do this.
The Trump policy is hinged on strength and punch if attacked. Ironically, Iran has said the same thing. So, where does it go from here if nobody is willing to attack the other unless they are attacked?
It goes nowhere. Things just remain the same but it is way more costly to keep a carrier group stationed overseas. Neither side is going to provoke the other intentionally. Iran will use its proxies to continue to conduct terror attacks on Israel. Will Trump allow American forces become involved there along with the Israelis? Iran will use its forces in Syria to terrorize. But, it seems Trump's red line is that American military might will only be used IF American assets or forces are attacked, otherwise, they will not. So, all Iran needs to do is to use their proxies to do the attacking because Iran, itself, cannot.
Trump really cannot do anything more regarding economic sanctions. He really has made life hard there. In return, Iran has stated it has quadrupled the manufacture of its weapon's grade nuclear fuel, ignoring the treaty Trump backed out of.
Perhaps Trump thought that showing a huge American force would be good for the news cycle for him and impress the Iranians so much that they would want to come to the table and talk. It would certainly make him look like a world leader who can solve all problems and 2020 is not far. Instead, even after a close session of the Foreign Relations, where the threats were spelled out, some senators on both sides questioned whether such a huge military deployment was needed. It seems to be overkill, as the threats from Iran and its proxies in Syria, in Iraq, in Yemen, in Gaza, in Lebanon, remain like they always have. There are thousands of rockets in Lebanon already, smuggled in over the years. There are missiles in Syria, that Israel tries to swat away. Missiles continued to be smuggled in through Iraq. Iran has always been a threat around the narrow Hormuz Straits. Iran has always been threat to the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi oil refineries and pipelines. They are all within missile range. So, what really were NEW threats this time?
This was all bravado. Putting Iran on notice. Again, something Iran has always known. It won't solve any issues, but it plays well to each countries media. Both facing off.