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Presidential Election Essay - Delaware
The state of Delaware has a history of voting for the democratic candidate in the national presidential election. These voting trends follow the most populated portion of Delaware, New Castle County. New Castle County holds Delaware’s biggest city of Wilmington with approximately 70,000 people living there. This area is affected by the metropolitan areas of the cities of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and Camden, New Jersey. Both of these bigger cities helped to influence the voting and the ideals of the people in Delaware. For the past five presidential elections, whichever presidential candidate that New Castle County voted for won the whole state of Delaware. This goes to show how much the population and demographics of New Castle County really affect Delaware as a state.
Some of the main differences between Delaware and the nation as a whole include the population change since 2000, the average amount of people per square mile, the percent of black persons, and the percent of Hispanic or Latino persons. All of these factors can help to explain the voting patterns of the people in Delaware. The facts that are to follow will sufficiently support these points, and will surely show exactly who Delaware plans to elect to the presidency in the next election.
The national population change according to the 2010 U.S. Census is at 9.7%, while the Delaware change is almost 5% higher, at 14.6%. Considering that Delaware is such a small state with approximately 898,000 people currently living there, an increase of 14.6% is quite a large influx of people into the state. The larger amount of people in the state can help to explain their Democratic leaning tendencies. The national pattern has already shown that more populated areas tend to be more democratic in their voting habits. The national average of people per square mile is 87.4, while the amount of people per square mile in Delaware is 460.8. This is a huge difference in comparison with the rest of the country, and it helps to prove the earlier point of more populated places tending to vote Democratic.
The national percent of black persons in the U.S. is at 12.6%, but in Delaware it is at 21.4%. That is almost a 9% difference. Over the past eight elections, over 80% of the black persons in the country have voted for the Democratic candidate for President. The higher amount of black people in the state of Delaware and the overwhelming popularity of Democratic candidates to black people help to explain why Delaware has trended towards voting for the Democratic candidate in each of the last five elections. Staying on the topic of race, according to the U.S. Census, the percent of Hispanics and Latinos is almost 9% lower in Delaware than the national average, with Delaware sitting at 8.2% and the country sitting at 16.3%. The combined Hispanic and Latino vote has tended to lean towards the Democratic side of politics in the best three elections, but this lower percentage of Hispanics and Latinos doesn’t fully support that claim. The higher percentage of black people in the state of Delaware might explain as to why the lower amount of Hispanics and Latinos has no real affect on who Delaware ultimately decides on for their presidential candidate.
In regards to the Republican primary elections, the people of Delaware have chosen the winning candidate in 2000 and in 2008. In 2008, the percent that John McCain won with was almost identical when Delaware’s and the nation’s votes were counted up. On the other hand, in 2000, although Delaware did successfully predict the Republican presidential candidate by selecting George W. Bush, they were a full 11% off from the national polls. The nation selected Bush with 62% of the primary votes, while Delaware selected Bush with only 51% of their primary votes. This helps to show why Delaware voted for the Democratic candidate during the presidential election, because they didn’t show as much support for one single Republican candidate.
Two of the biggest campaign issues in the 2012 presidential election are education and health care. The two major Republican presidential candidates are Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. Both of these candidates have varied, yet similar ideologies towards these two major campaign issues. Only one of them will make it out of Delaware with the states go ahead with the Republican presidential nomination.
With education, Gingrich thinks that education is the most important thing our country can have to improve the lives of the entire nation’s people, but he believes that the current high school system is flawed and should be done away with. He wants to change failing schools for the better, and he wants bring school prayer back into the classroom through a new Constitutional Amendment. Romney also thinks that the education system needs to be revamped. He thinks that English should be taught at a young age and he also supports the “No Child Left Behind” motto. Romney wants to increase the pay of high quality teachers to help to increase the quality of our nation’s education. Both of these stances by both candidates have pros and cons to them, but the real question is what the voters will think when the primary election day comes.
With health care, Gingrich wants it to be competitive to create more choices and drive down prices. He wants to focus on preventive healthcare instead of treating illnesses once they have gone too far. He also wants to keep government out of a national health care system; he says that nationalizing healthcare hurts everybody. Romney created his own from of universal healthcare when he was Governor of Massachusetts, so he supports health care with enthusiasm, but he still wants to keep it out of government hands. He says that the rise in government control of health care will also raise taxes, but Romney wants to off tax deductions for certain people. Both of these stances seem to agree on having a national health care system, but there are major differences between what the two candidates have in mind for how to implement and run the health care.
I believe that there is evidence that Mitt Romney will win the Republican presidential nomination from the state of Delaware because of his stances on the two major issues and his previous experience in office. On the education issue, Romney fully believes in the “No Child Left Behind” principle when it comes to the education of the U.S. and that goes along with George W. Bush and one of his campaign slogans. Delaware had voted for Bush in the 2000 Republican primary and that shows that they too agree with “No Child Left Behind.” Another point on education is that he wants to increase the quality of the education that students are receiving. That is a big fighting point in Delaware, and that could help to win him some votes. On the health care issue, Romney has shown that he can set up his own form of a national health care, and the people of Delaware will respect that and see it as a sign of strength in the election. Also, with Romney’s plan of health care, the government will be kept out f it and taxes will not be increased. Romney can translate no increase in taxes for all people throughout the U.S. to help to garner more support in Delaware for the Republican primary nomination.
Seeing as Delaware has correctly picked the past two Republican nominees in McCain and Bush, the people of Delaware have a pretty good track record in the recent past. Mitt Romney is poised to win the primary in Delaware, and I think that these issues that Delaware is facing can translate easily to the national level. Delaware has the history to back up the correct candidate and, I believe that Mitt Romney will win the Republican presidential nomination on the national level as well.
President Obama and Mitt Romney have very similar thoughts on the issues of education and health care. They both believe in “No Child Left Behind”, but while President Obama wants to add on to the education system to make it better, Romney wants to eliminate the department of education. On the issue of health care, they have both shown worthiness in leading health care with Romney and his health care in Massachusetts and with President Obama and his health care bill that got passed. They both want a higher level of health care and better affordability for all. These two issues make the two candidates seem very even, but based off of the demographics and past elections, I can deduce which candidate will win Delaware and the presidency.
Based solely off of the past presidential elections, it seems as though Delaware will vote for President Obama again. Delaware has voted Democratic in every election since 1992. President Obama won handily in the 2008 election by capturing almost 62% of the vote in Delaware. As stated earlier, President Obama and Mitt Romney have similar thoughts on education and health care, but President Obama has been in office for four years already and he has shown that he can run the country well. This, I think, will be the deciding factor in the election. President Obama is the incumbent and they have all the advantages to re-win the election in Delaware. The high amount of blacks will also help to propel President Obama to winning ways in Delaware.
The result will be the same nationally, because President Obama has so much support from the rest of the country right now. President Obama has a 48% approval rating. That means that he has 48% of the national vote already for him. He only needs to capture roughly 51%, due to the Electoral College, and he would seemingly win the election again. I believe that Delaware will provide their three electoral votes towards President Obama’s cause for reelection. President Obama only needs to persuade 3% of the undecided voters to favor him to win the election over Mitt Romney. I believe the race will be close, because as stated before, their ideologies about education and health care are very similar, but in the end, President Obama has the incumbency, and that is one huge advantage that Romney can’t copy.