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Sanctions on Iran's Bank Markazi: Prepare for Conflict Between March and June 2012

Updated on January 1, 2012

It is a valid prediction. Before 2011 ended, President Obama signed off of the toughest of all to date Iranian sanctions, Iran's Bank Markazi. It is a bank Iran uses for most of its international banking and trading\transactions. Iran has said that if this was done, it would be an "act of war" to them because of how severe the impact would be.The bill targets any firm dealing with Iran's central bank and it forces other countries to choose between buying oil from Iran or being shut out of transactions with US financial institutions and banks. The big players here are China, which depends on Iran's oil and Russia, which has many deals with Iran. For the most part, the NATO countries (most of Europe) will comply. Saudi Arabia has promised China that whatever oil it got from Iran, they can get from SA. This leaves Russia, which has been trying to play both ways.

Iran needs to sell its oil. Starting in March, it will have problems. By June, it will nearly be impossible. The oil faucet is slowly being turned to OFF.

In the meantime, Iran has been conducting its show of force in the Straits of Hormuz, threatening to close the straits from oil tank travel. Even this display raised the cost of a barrel of oil. Imagine if Iran attack and sank just one oil tanker using an anti-ship missile from China. What would the US do? Already, the US has stated this is a vital area and such use of force will not be tolerated. Okay, so the US strike back. It either calms and then escalates again with another tanker being sunk or Iran's proxies stir up war elsewhere in the Middle East. While all this occurs, oil skyrockets.

In other words, for awhile, the situation is a draw. No winner with the consumer suffering the worse impact with fast rising fuel costs. In the long term, the West would do more harm to Iran, until internally the government collapses or its population riots and rebels.

Whatever happens, it will occur in 2012, unless Iran complies about disarming its nuclear dream.


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    • perrya profile image

      perrya 6 years ago

      Maybe, allies don't always see eye to eye.

    • Ivona Poyntz profile image

      Ivona Poyntz 6 years ago from UK

      Russia is a big player here and if its not on board all bets are off

    • perrya profile image

      perrya 6 years ago

      That would be very interesting! Never thought about this. Kudos!

    • poetvix profile image

      poetvix 6 years ago from Gone from Texas but still in the south. Surrounded by God's country.

      I agree with your prediction, but for different reasons. These events all feel orchestrated to me. If this becomes a physical confrontation, as you suggest, the War Powers Act can and will be evoked, i.e. no election.