Standoff in the Strait of Hormuz: Iran and America -Who will act first?
Both sides have drawn their lines in the sand. America has now three large navy carrier groups in the Middle East region, a fourth, sits in Japan. It is clearly a show of force to Iran and welcomed by many of the Arab countries near Iran. America and Europe have now placed the most dire of the economic sanctions on Iran's government that can and will cripple their own economy as they take hold. Inflation is surging within Iran, 15000 rials to one US dollar. Iran depends on their oil exports to their top three buyers, China, Japan and India. China will never go along with the sanctions for obvious self interests, neither with India. Japan has indicated it will. Russia, while does not rely on Iranian oil, has far too many contracts and business deals with Iran to go along with the dire sanctions, and even if they do, they cannot be trusted to abide by them.
There is a growing impatience between Israel and the US about Iran's nuclear program. Time is growing shorter and shorter. Obama wants to be patient and allow the dire sanctions that hit all business in Iran hard through inflation. Israel wants to strike before it becomes impossible for any attack to have real impact. Israel already has made plans to attack it is only a question when. The US is more willing wait and use covert activity to whittle away Iran's experts via assassinations etc.
Iran would only hurt itself by closing the Strait of Hormuz from a economic point of view, of course, so the world would also be hurt. Closing it forces America to execute its military option which would no doubt be expanded to attacking the nuke sites. Iran has more to lose. The west only a few tankers and delays in moving oil.
Iran's internal population may try to revolt once again when their lives are in much turmoil and overturn the government, that would be ideal, but unlikely.
