Syrian Military is in a Slow Death
The rebel uprising is now entering its third year. It is hard to believe that so much time has already passed and still war continues. The British and French have finally broken away from the US charm and now will supply the rebels weapons via Jordan and other Arab countries.
Its about time.
The rebels comprise of the Free Syrian Army, those who do want a more western type democracy. These men are a mix of civilians, defectors from the Syrian Army, and some foreigners. The al Nusra group represents the Islamic Front and comprised of pro-Islamic law, maybe Sharia, some are connected to known terrorist groups.
Israeli intelligence fully expects Assad to use his chemical weapons sooner now. Whatever weapons loaded with them are simply awaiting his "go" order. Assad knows it will be a desperate measure and will allow NATO and the us to fully enter this war. But, his back is against the wall more now than ever before. His airforce continues to fly 40 sorties a day against rebel positions.
The price of bread has gone up seven times over the past year. Oil production is down 40 percent. The army is able to draft only 20 percent of each recruited class. Some 45,000 troops have defected. Morale is low, the structure of command is weak, the troops are scattered. Only 11 of 17 border crossings are currently in Syrian hands.
Even Iran can only help Syria so much and its prior meddling was quickly discovered, while its attempted of smuggling missiles into Lebanon caught the Israeli eye. Another Syrian general has defected with the ominous news of chemical weapon plans. Some accounts they have been moved out of Damascus. Also, the military has loaded the precursor chemicals for sarin, a deadly nerve gas, into aerial bombs
Syria can load bombs filled with chemicals in their Sukhoi-22/20, MiG-23 and Sukhoi-24 aircraft. In addition, some reports indicate that unguided short-range Frog-7 artillery rockets also. Syria has a few dozen SS-21 ballistic missiles with a maximum range of 72 miles, 200 Scud-Bs, with a maximum range of 180 miles, and 60 to 120 Scud-Cs, with a maximum range of 300 miles, all of which are mobile and are capable of carrying chemicals.
If one can view Syria as a wounded animal and bleeding and it is being gradually surrounded and cutoff of critical needs to continue, it is not hard to see Assad issuing the order to use the chemicals at suspect rebels. He is too proud to simply cut and flee from the country to save himself and family.
The most dangerous animal is when they are corned.