The 1,000 Mile Planned Israeli Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facilities
As time moves on toward summer, there is more of a chance that Israeli planes will attack iran's nuclear sites. The longer that Israeli waits, it seems more details about how this might happen appear in the media. Kinda negating the element of surprise to some extent.
Experts tend to think that not less than 100 F-15I and F-16I aircraft and at least eight KC-707 air tankers would be required for a strike that would have to continue for at least a few days to be able to attack all of the suspected and known sites. The round trip airfare from Israel to Iran's sites is 2,000 miles thus making air refueling a must. But, Israel does not have have KC-707s for hundred jets to refuel in midair. The tankers themselves would have to be protected by additional fighters as well. Israel only has 125 F-15\16I's. What Israel might do is to have the KC-707 tankers fly at 50,000 ft. to avoid all of Iran's AA missiles and then quickly drop down at specified locations to refuel. Still, this is very risky. Israeli ECM aircraft would also accompany the "air armada" to thwart Iran's older missile air defenses, which could force some IDF planes to drop their bombs. Iran could fire long range missiles into Israel as the IDF is over Iran. Iran really could do a variety of things against non-Israeli targets easily.
Assuming the Jordan allows the Israeli air armada to fly over it (Iraq is free because they have no aircraft, or defense systems), the next issue is that Israel has only a limited number of GBU-28 5,000 lb. bombs that can penetrate the thick concrete bunkers underground. The big question is how far could these bombs actually go in the ground before exploding. If not far enough, destruction will not happen only damage.
Because of the diversion in location of nuclear sites in Iran, it is likely the IDF would target the main ones at Natanz and Fordo for their uranium enrichment facitlies, Arak for the heavy water reactor, and Isfahan for its yellow cake. Damaging all would be a major set back for Iran, destruction of any one of them would be the end for them for a long while. There is always the chance that Israel might use one of its tactical nuclear weapons to take out a site.
The IDF plans or US interpretation of the plans is curious. We know the US does not want the IDF to strike but to give Obama's sanctions time to work. Going public with the IDF planning possibilities is clearly intentional and deliberate to provide Iran with them in order to make Israel to not attack. Why else would all this info be in the US media?
The odd thing is that the Germans have the opposite view. They are highly confident that Israel could knock out Iran’s nuclear program for a decade or more with about 25 of its 87 F-15 fighter-bombers and a smaller number of its F-16s. Each of the F- 15s would carry two of the GBU-28 bunker busters, with the F-16s armed with smaller bombs. So, it makes one wonder if the US is deliberately making the scenario far worse than it is. Some of the sites are above ground ensuring easy destruction,
The only question is what happens if the sanctions fail to halt Iran from doing the bomb? There are only so many ways to attack Iran and now Iran knows some of the facets and targets.