The Consequences of a US War Against Iran
Iran is a Country That the United States Has Been Targeting for Years
With much of the media attention having been focused on putting sanctions on the Nicolas Maduro government in Venezuela, there is another country in the world that has been under constant monitoring, threats, and coercion. That country is Iran, a country that the United States has been accusing of sponsoring terrorism. This essay attempts to discuss the likely consequences of a US war on Iran.
Consequences Include Massive Damage to the US Economy and a Swift Response from the Shia Muslim Community
It is true that Iran’s current regime has been guilty of various human rights abuses but the continued use of harsh language by the United States will cause it to go nowhere good and it will not be able to restore relations with Iran. The US may have to settle with Iran having nuclear weapons because any attack on Iran by the US or Israel will lead to consequences too terrible to imagine. If Iran is attacked you can expect a very harsh response by the Shia community around the world and Iran will come out scratching and clawing like a big tiger. The US would then be eventually stuck in another unwinnable war and the damage to its economy would be even more severe than it is now. If you think the US economy is bad now, just imagine what would happen if they attacked Iran. And that would also lead to Moqtada Al-Sadr one of the most powerful Shiite politicians in Iraq getting involved in the resistance to US forces. Iraq which is a majority Shiite nation would not welcome an attack on Iran by the US or Israel.
Dialogue is a Much Better Option for the United States
Yes, Iran’s current regime is far from perfect but the United States government is corrupt too. It is time for both sides to have honest, meaningful dialogue with each other. The US will be better off by trying to do this. Another point to consider is that even if and when the current regime changes, there will be no true democracy because people in that part of the world do not know what a true democracy is.
The United States may have no choice but to be comfortable with a regime having nuclear technology. No amount of threats or coercion will prevent Iran from enriching uranium. This hard line approach by the United States will make it more likely that Iran will develop nuclear technology. The only wise solution to this dispute is for the US to have a dialogue with Iran. Speaking of dialogue, in spite of former Vice President Joe Biden saying that the US would consider having direct talks with the Iranians, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei immediately turned down the offer saying that direct talks would not help to solve the problem. If that is the case then what does he suggest? Khamenei is a conservative leader. Khamenei has been in his current position since 1989 and even when he passes from the scene, who knows if the person that will take his place will be any better. If the hardliners in Iran reject the idea of direct talks with the United States, we can expect more of the same things to follow.
Mike Pompeo Current US Secretary of State
How Can the United States Win? By Not Starting a War to Begin With
But one thing is for sure: an attack on Iran would close off the Strait of Hormuz. Oil supplies would be affected, the price of oil would go way up, and the number of attacks on US targets worldwide would increase to a level not seen before by human history.
Trita Parsi, President of the Iranian American National Council writes: “The Iranians know very well that the American public has little tolerance for war casualties,” (Parsi, 2018). This is accurate to a degree: the longer that the US has been involved in a major international conflict, the American public has soured on the government. Americans surely remember the disastrous conflict in Vietnam where 58,000 US soldiers lost their lives. If Donald Trump wants to make America great again as he has said so many times, starting a war with Iran would make the United States look like the biggest bully the world has ever seen. According to the same article mentioned above, it is also estimated that Iran is said to have the largest inventory of ballistic missiles among Middle Eastern nations. Parsi says it best when he says: “The only way to win this war is to ensure Trump and Bolton are stopped before they start it,” (Parsi, 2018).
John Bolton US National Security Advisor With President Trump
Iranian Foreign Minister Explains Why A War Against Iran Would Be Foolish
Donald Trump is Not the Solution to the Iranian "Problem" He is the Cause of It
President Donald Trump is further exacerbating tensions between the US and Iran. Many people remember the famous tweet sent by Trump to President Hassan Rouhani when he said:” To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!” (Beauchamp, 2018). It is clear that it is the United States government is the government that is making the situation worse, not Iran. Although I have said in a previous article that Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei is an autocrat in some respects, threatening to start a military conflict with Iran is never worth the risk.
John Bolton & Mike Pompeo: Two Stupid Men
Caution is advised. Will Iran and the United States ever have diplomatic relations again? In this writer’s opinion, as long as Iran’s hardliners are still in power, reconciliation is extremely unlikely. Dialogue is the better option instead of using military force to either prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon or to change the country’s regime. It is better to avoid armed conflict with Iran at all costs instead of committing US troop strength in a war thousands of miles away which is only going to have more American families lose their loved ones. In addition to the many thousands of US troops that will be killed or injured, a major war against Iran would cause an even worse occurrence of US service members coming down with post-traumatic stress syndrome. Iran has never attacked the US except when the US had soldiers stationed in Lebanon in the 1980’s and Hezbollah is said to have attacked the MNF (Multi-National Force of American and French soldiers). The United States does not learn from history because it continues to try and flex its muscles overseas as they have occupied so many countries since the end of World War 2. It is proper to end this essay with a beautiful quote by Thomas Jefferson, the 3rd President of the United States, Jefferson said: “Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations; entangling alliances with none.” It would be a brilliant approach if the United States of 2019 could ever implement such a policy. However, such a policy seems too far-fetched because of the influence of these big corporations and the military industrial complex. Regardless of what side of the political spectrum you are on, there is a far better way to deal with Iran than starting a war against it that will be a big loss for the United States in more ways than one.Bibliography
Beauchamp, Z. (2018, July 23). What Trump’s threatened war with Iran would actually look like. Vox.
Parsi, T. (2018, March 30). War With Iran Won’t Be Iraq All Over Again. It’ll Be Much Worse. The Huffington Post.
A University Professor Describes the Current US Regime
© 2019 Ara Vahanian