The Final Cold War
US vs China
The slowly escalating trade conflict between the US and China is not just dangerous due to its disastrous impact on the global economy, but more so due to it's conclusive nature. This conflict could very well be the last major conflict we witness before entering global hegemony. And that makes it all the more daunting.
What will be the consequences?
The last cold war created a nuclear arms race, and brought a danger to the world that still lingers strongly today. A danger that eclipses all those before it. So one can only imagine what the consequences of another similar conflict would be.
The Soviet Union's battle with the Capitalist United States and it's allies seemed to have been settled with the collapse of the former and independence of many of it's territories. Communism was seen as a failure by the end of the 20th century. Practical examples of it's success led to the system of capitalism, led by the United States of America, gaining global hegemony. Yet, this was not the end of the conflict altogether. While Russia abandoned the communism of the Soviet Union and much of it's territory, it remained a strong competitor to the United States.
More importantly, Communism itself was far from over. The cold war didn't bring its complete demise. Not when a rising power, the most populous in the world, was still holding tightly to it. And that brings us to China and the Final Cold War.
China's economic rise over the past century, made it a strong competitor for the United States on a global stage. China doesn't shy away from it's global ambitions. The way it is expanding its influence in Africa, Asia, Latin America and even Europe, couldn't be rivaled even by the Soviet Union's history. China has entrenched itself on a global stage through economic debt created by infrastructure projects and handing over hefty loans. The debt even led to Sri Lanka having to hand over a key port to the Chinese, which could be a sign of things to come.
So what now?
Well, we can see it clearly. The United States is worried. They have shifted their security priority from terrorism to China and Russia. Donald Trump and his administration have decided to strike hard economically where they can. The tariffs on Chinese goods have steadily increased since the beginning of last year, and the effects have started to show cracks in the Chinese economy, despite easing attempts by the government.
Another key wild card in this conflict is Taiwan. Taiwan has long been a source of conflict but the United States has not pursued it's goals in the region as aggressively as they are today. From phone calls, recognition of Taiwan as an independent country all the way to military deals, the US is not shying away from it's support despite Chinese complaints.
This, and the issue of influence over the South China Sea, are the possible triggers that could turn this rising Cold War into something much worse.
What is guaranteed however, is that similar to the last Cold War, we will see one system and civilisation dominate as the other withdraws. Every conflict in history has had an eventual winner, even though the victory comes with consequences and is never as full as expected. The scale of this conflict however, almost guarantees the eventual triumph of one system on a global stage, in a much more conclusive sense than the last Cold War. Either the Chinese continue to steamroll and advance in their global ambitions, replacing the United States, or the United States finally puts an end to the Chinese rise, giving it full edge over East Asia for expanding its ideals. Only time will tell, but the future is going to be very interesting.
''Either the Chinese continue to steamroll and advance in their global ambitions, replacing the United States, or the United States finally puts an end to the Chinese rise, giving it full edge over East Asia for expanding it's ideals. Only time will tell, but the future is going to be very interesting.''
This content is accurate and true to the best of the author’s knowledge and is not meant to substitute for formal and individualized advice from a qualified professional.
© 2019 Myr Mano