The Iranian Bid for Being a Regional Power
President Obama wants to show the world that he can resolve the world's friction points with diplomacy and negotiation with "clear vision". I guess that means he is wary of the tricks Iran may pull with the nuclear weapon issues and the lifting of sanctions. The clear vision is only as clear as the intelligence the US has and if you recall, Iran secretly built much of its underground nuclear facilities during a time of peace even though America was watching. Then, they boastfully disclosed they had built such a facility to show us how ineffective our intelligence data was.
The charm offensive is no different. Fact is, we really have an intelligence problem when it comes to knowing 100% what Iran is doing, knowing 90% is not good enough, yet there is little we can do. It is possible that US intelligence already is convinced that Iran is close or has a nuclear bomb device and because of this, Obama is trying to contain the situation now before it does become public knowledge. All of this sudden eagerness from him may be the reason. If not, Rouhani is planning to buy time and get some sanctions lifted. Some experts have said Iran may be within three months of getting enough weaponized nuclear material. That would explain why they seem to want a quick accord. By the time December or January rolls around, Iran might have it, then they could threaten to use it if the sanctions are not lifted. Perfectly plausible since the Iranian people are the ones really hurting.
As Rouhani talked peace and accord, Iran's military displayed its latest in a parade. On display were, 12 Sejil (“Baked Clay”) and 18 Ghader (“Intensity”) missiles. These medium-range missiles can reach targets 1,500 miles away and target American aircraft carriers. Both are solid fuel missiles that can be launched within 30 minutes and are mobile. They can carry a 2,200 lb. warhead explosive or gas. Their Shahab-3b missile is said to be accurate within 50m of the target. Iran’s new anti-ship missiles Qader and Nasr, with ranges of 125 and 20 miles can be launched from their aging F-14 aircraft but their REAL danger is from their Russian arms supplier, the 150 anti-ship Sunburn missiles, the world's most sophisticated missile that US warships cannot evade. It travels at Mach 3 speed and carries a nuclear warhead or 750 ton explosive charge. It skims the surface making evasion nearly impossible.
There may be other surprises coming from Russia, China and North Korea since all three sell sophisticated weapons to Iran. The Russians are the most guilty and have provided them with the ability to target a missile precisely, which was their main problem.
The question comes to mind, why? Since Obama's bluff on Syria was called, Iran knows America will not strike first at Iran. Obama will threaten but that is it. Why does Iran continue to seek its own weapons, offensive weapons?Just because Iran has never started a war does not mean they will not fabricate a mishap to do so. This quest for a nuclear weapon is like a pit bull latching onto its victim-it won't let go unless force dislodges it.
I think Iran is close in getting what they want. The West is trying to contain it. This sounds like 1938, when the West (then England and France) tried to contain someone called Hitler.