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The Libyan Stalemate: The Yo-yo War
Once again, good American intentions are going awry in Libya due to the current balance of forces. Libya has, still has, plenty of weapons not touched by NATO or American missiles or bombs. All military leaders war cannot be a success with only air attacks. Look no further than Germany in 1944-45 and mass B-17 bomber attacks. The war went on.
The current state in Libya is disfunctional. The opposition is really a ragtag outfit, at best, armed with mostly light weapons moved about in roving militia in Toyota and other kinds of trucks. They are successful only when NATO or the US plaster the Libyan soldiers with bombs and missiles. Since NATO has not continued it, Libyan forces are now kicking the opposition back to Benghazi.
Can we now call this the " yo-yo war"?
News media and just about everyone ask the same questions: who is the opposition? can we trust them? has al-Qaeda infiltrated them? Where are the NATO planes? Why did America not remain in the lead? How long is the war going to be? WTF! OMG, this war is turning into another mess courtesy of indecision and overly precaution by Obama and NATO. Of the NATO countries, only France and the UK are taking the lead role that the US had. Turkey and Germany continue to sit on the sideline and are not providing support because they really don't like the idea.
This is turning into Libyan favor. The longer it continues, the more likely, due to costs, France and the UK will be apt to stop. Libya offers a ceasefire only because it will benefit them in some way. What if Gadhaffi hads over the leadership to one of his sons? I don't think so! Since the policy is to remove Gadhaffi, nothing short of that can be called a success. if the war ends up a stalemate, which it has already happened, what will NATO do? Doing nothing is not acceptable because it helps Gadhaffi. The opposition needs heavier weapons to battle Libyan armor, they need training, yet, no country in NATO wants to do this, let alone supply them weapons because the West is not convinced the opposition will win or be pro-West, should they win.
Sooner or later, after months of yo-yo battles, either side or both will need more fuel, need more ammo to continue. Libya seems to be in a better position to continue longer than the freedom fighters and should they run low of ammo, Gadhaffi will run them over.
Seems to me, sooner or later, the West will have to have either boots on the ground to train or to resupply. It is a war predicted to last for months.