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The Myth That Baghdad Will Not Fall to the Islamic State
One need to only look back to World War 2 to see that many so called fortresses, or well defended areas, collapsed with astonishing speed. In 1968, the Americans were surrounded by two or three NVA divisions at the small firebase at Khe Sanh. It was held by not more than 120 men against 20,000. Historians agree that had the NVA decided to take it, they would have prevailed as they had in 1954 when the French had their fortress called Dien Bien Phu. The French had also built the impregnable Maginot Line in the, yet, the German army easily penetrated it in 1940 because of poor communications and poor morale among the defending troops, which just melted away in places. In 1921, the Greeks had their own fortified areas during their conquest of Turkey, thought to be impenetrable. Yet, when the Turks attacked with inferior troops, the Greeks defenses crumpled and panic ensued.
History has many examples where the egotistical defending forces felt secure and any attack could be thwarted, yet quickly collapsed.
The Islamic State or ISIS is within 15 miles of Baghdad. They are sending 10,000 troops there and have seized Anbar Province and within mortar range of the city's International airport. The Iraqi army is worthless, they resemble the South Vietnamese Army in 1975, a pathetic lot, totally corrupt. They lack leadership and give up army bases with little fighting, What remains are the only decent Iraqi troops close to Baghdad, of course, decent may still not be enough. Lets not forget what happened at Mosul, defended by three Iraqi divisions (20,000 men). When ISIS attacked, the Iraqi troops were already afraid from their psych-ops and beheadings. Only a few thousand ISIS actually attacked in pickup trucks, but the morale was already gone and soon the Iraqi troops simply deserted leaving the equipment to IS. Mosul is two million people. It boggles the mind how it happened.
The Obama administration is acting stupid by trying to be cool and reserved, yet everything tried fails because Obama is not serious about it. Either do it right or none at all. The only luck the Iraqis have had was the recent gaff ISIS did. In one of the battles around Haditha, the Iraqi units were beat and fled, leaving a gap in defenses. By the US Chief of Staff's own admission, ISIS could've walked into Baghdad because there was nothing to stop them. ISIS did nothing for some unknown reason and soon the gap was filled.
But ISIS does not need to physically seize Baghdad, a city of nine million. They only need to seize the International airport. They only need to isolate the city from the main roads, which would not be difficult in open country. They only need to create chaos within the city using sleeper cells and gain the support of the Sunnis who live there. They only need to conquer a part of the city and this most likely would be the Sunni section. If some or all of these things occur, Baghdad will fall because of the psychological warfare and hysteria panic that occurs to a population only wanting to be safe. If you doubt this, simply watch the excellent movie, The Collapse of South Vietnam 1975. As the NVA took more and more provinces in 1975, the South Vietnamese Army routed along with the civilians. All sought to get to Saigon for protection of their best forces. The Americans were long gone. They kept thinking America would never let Saigon fall. Wrong! Americans were sick of the war and no more boots on the ground would be allowed. Then, President Ford, faced the identical situation that Obama now faces in Iraq. In the end, America allowed the Communists to defeat them.
ISIS is a pure evil force, far more disgusting than the North Vietnamese Army, supported by China and Russia. They have studied history, past military battles and strategies. Most would agree with this. It is a Satanic Army allowed to grow because of the policies of America and ignorance of President Obama. Obama is so determined not to use American troops in Iraq that he will allow Baghdad to fall. ISIS controls nearly all of Anbar Province. The leaders of the province have requested American troops and American Apache helicopters ARE involved in combat, so, there are boots on the ground.
At some point in time, America will have to decide to either save face and defend Baghdad or let history be revisited in 1975.