The Ukraine, a Synopsis
Does the Ukraine stand alone in a valley?
About The Ukraine
Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It has an area of 603,628 km2 (233,062 sq mi) it is the largest county entirely within Europe. Ukraine is mostly made of ethnic Eastern Europeans as opposed to Russian or West Asian. They are over 77% Ethnic Ukrainians. Ukraine is an ex- United Soviet Socialist Republic member. Ukraine dates back to being a kingdom out of what is now the capital of the Ukraine, Kiev. So it has been around since about the 9th century.
Ukraine had elections after leaving the U.S.S.R. and began independence with promise. But the leadership soon rejected European entreaties got in bed with Putin and Russia and turned as corrupt as any government can get absent genocide. Ukraine is nearly 80% Christian with over 90% of that being some type of Eastern Orthodox. There are Muslims and Jews in country but very few.
Ukraine is a developed nation by most standards and generally enjoy European style freedoms. However beginning in the late 1990’s there began to be a major siphoning of funds to an elite and services were not keeping up with need. It was a Soviet style dictatorship in reality.
As is often the case the “rebellion” began as protests by the students and those with little to lose. Intellectuals joined in and funding was there enough to sustain a stance against the government. Then violence ensued and the government toppled and ran to Crimea where a clearly pre arranged take over by Putin and Russia took place.
The current situation is not one of Ukrainian popular support. Probably 85% of Ukrainians do not want Russia interfering. So for Putin to move further it will be completely by military and opposed action. Russia is currently breast beating across the mutual border with large military maneuvers. Of course history shows that kind of behavior leads to “accidental” incidents which lead to invasions. And of course it should be noted that NATO has also escalated in the region.
All the bordering countries have a problem if Ukraine goes. It sounds like the old "Domino theory" but it is real. If no one will fight for The Ukraine who will
You bet it is, make no mistake about that. It is not just between the Ukraine and Russia or Ukrainians against Ukrainians.
Once again Americans are sick of war for whatever reason other than defense of our borders. Just like the decades after WWI and who can blame us.
Ukrainian armed forces would be overwhelmed quickly if there was a Russian invasion. So without outside intervention the country will most likely be “conquered” by Russia. That is just reality.
Economic and social sanctions against Russia will not bring her to her knees. Russia is self sustaining to a large degree and it is always made clear that the people will suffer there and not leaders or industrialists no matter the name given. However with that said Russia has a huge upperclass that will not be real happy with their profits being cut into with a full invasion. The situation is further complicated by two additional factors. Russia, remaining from the USSR days still has huge “criminal networks” that are expert in smuggling and those networks will get even more powerful and wealthy with embargos and sanctions. And there is a natural gas pipeline that runs through the Ukraine from Russia to EU and that is a sticky wicket.
Should we race in like the firemen we are?
History repeating itself?
Stalin and the Georgian affair and the 700,000 executions cannot be ignored as well as the obvious of WWI and WWII which were precursed by moves just like the one going on now in the Ukraine. Freeing a country is one thing, invading it to control it is quite another. We do not like what is going on in Iraq these days but it is not us who control it or run the government, for example.
Nuclear options. The Ukraine had more missiles than anyone except the USA and Russia. They sent them all back to Russia with love. In exchange they got the United States of America, Russia, and the United Kingdom to sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, pledging to respect Ukraine territorial integrity. (so Russia’s conquering of the Crimea region was a direct violation of this agreement) Ukraine bought their peace being a non nuclear country and Russia just screwed them on that deal) Remember the Ukraine is the location of Chernobyl and the “atomic meltdown”.
NATO is poised to join in the fray if called to do so. The real issue is whether or not Germany, France and Great Britain are ready and willing. This is their backyard and there issues and we hope that the do not repeat the Euro attitude of the last century toward these matters. Remember that due to corruption and a Russian deal, Ukraine was and is not in the European Union, instead they were a satellite in the Russian Federation.
However we are not dealing with a horrible terrible mass murdering regime taking over in the Ukraine. Russia is bad but not that bad and not a state sponsor of terrorism and most human rights as per the United Nations would be honored. And an invasion and occupation of the Ukraine would likely have a stabilizing effect at least for 5 years or so.
On the other hand many worry about the oldtime “domino theory” and that is legitimate as Putin seems clearly a bit of a cowboy with loose ties to international norms.
I like the music
Should we assist militarily
Should we send troops outside of NATO?
Looking Good to eat!
We will and have already interfered. Conclusion
How far should we go? How much can we isolate on this one? Historically France has been the biggest loser in these matters. Historically Germany has been the most aggressive. Great Britain has taken the brunt and carried the water for Europe often. Where are Italy, Spain and Poland in this mix. Pressure should be on them to act and not sit back like they have historically. No one wants war not even the Russians and certainly not the Ukrainians. But will that stop Russia?
The land is headed toward oppression.