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The opinion survey for the ensuing elections in Tamilnadu!

Updated on May 9, 2016

The main faces contesting elections.

The poll situation in Tamilnadu!

Every five years, ceremoniously, state elections are fought in India. This time elections in two major states in the East have concluded. Those await the elections are the people of Tamilnadu, Kerala and Pondicherry, a small union. While the Barathiya Janata Party tries its hands in the southern states, the poll outcome is likely to be in its favour in Assam for the time being. In West Bengal, it is a very tough contest between three fronts in which the ruling Trinamool Congress will scrap ahead.

But in the case of Southern States of Tamilnadu and Kerala, none could predict for sure who will lead this time. In Tamilnadu, the tradition was either the AIDMK headed by J.Jayalalitha who rules the state now and the stalwart politician or the Bheeshma of the Dravidian parties, M.Karunanidhi who is 93 but still not lost his charisma.. Many poll surveys points out to either of the Dravadian parties according to the leaning, it is still unclear, how the new voters will vote on the ultimate day, the next Monday 16th May 2016. Many astrologers have written long columns about the political prospects of both. First of all, the incumbency factor weighs down heavily on the neck of the present regime.

Some projections in news media.

The poll situation is still hazy here.

The devastating floods of Tamilnadu, during November 2015 have caused much apprehension in the minds of many voters, who were left in the lurch to safeguard their lives. The government intervention came much after when the social media was flooded with messages of government apathy in the worst tragedy just below their nose. Why there was stoic silence from the ruling party over the death of more than 270 people, loss and destruction of homes and properties is still a point of dispute. Hence the sufferings and trauma is still green in the psyche of people. This time peculiarly, there are five fronts contesting the elections which will definitely cut into the share of votes of the major Dravidian parties in one way or other. No doubt, the efforts put forth by M.K.Stalin, DMK youth wing secretary and son of M.Karunanidhi contributed a lot of enthusiasm in the minds of new and traditional voters, yet none can predict how much vote share percentage they will garner.

It is really a jig jaw puzzle to predict any party’s victory in Tamilnadu as of now. It depends on the moods and preferences of the new voters on the poll day which may tilt the scale. Even one percent tilt may spell doom to other party. Already several news papers combined with a leading TV news channel has published the opinion poll recently. While one paper clearly points out rout for the ruling party, the other group has published the quiet opposite results. This time, there seems to bias reporting in most of the news papers and TV channels.

The reasons for setback for the ruling party!

The main reasons why the ruling party may struggle to retain their share is the following:

The inept handling of the floods of Tamilnadu

There was no contact between the government, bureaucracy and citizens.

There was all round opposition to liquor policy of the government. Many sacrificed their lives fighting against the liquor policy. In fact, lot of ladies lost their husbands to drunkenness. The proliferation of liquor shops held by the government near schools, collages, hospitals and residences caused much hardship to students, ladies, wayfarers and other senior citizens. The revenue generated by the liquor shops was utilized to fund several government subsidies. Morality was ignored and public opinion was not cared. This is the greatest draw back.

The Ministers always tried to please the Chief Minister. Many of the Cabinet Ministers were exploiting the public, traders and other sections and earned a lot in the middle. This created adverse public reactions. The media depicted the behavior of senior ministers in very bad light.

All these points go against the ruling front and educated youth who comprise a good percentage of new voters may never prefer a corrupt regime. Arvind Kejriwal, the present Chief Minister of Delhi won with a thumping majority against many odds for the single reason of his fight tooth and nail against corrupt Congress government and the strong BJP in the center. In Tamilnadu, the people are wise to choose a stable government. But this time, the odds are many.

Any government that is formed in Tamilnadu should work for the welfare of all sections of society!

Other faces in elections of Tamilnadu-Leaders.

The prospect of other fronts in Tamilnadu!

Having dealt on the pros and cons in respect of the ruling AIADMK, I will detail the problems in other front.

DMK founded by Sri C.N.Annadurai now led by the senior most politician in South Sri M.Karunanidhi has some negative points in this poll: Some of the family members are facing corruption charges and the daughter of M.Karunanidhi had underwent even jail term in Kalignar TV case. Also, the cousins Maran brothers are facing many cases of corruption in misusing the powers in providing multiple high end connection to the family TV. One of the ex Minister A.Raja is still not absolved from 2G spectrum allotment case while he was Telecom Minister. All the family members including grandchildren are big names in Film production due to amazed wealth when the party was in power. In fact, liquor policy and government handling sales of liquor was started during DMK regime.

The third front comprising of Vijayakant, Vaiko, Vasan and the two communist parties and Viduthalai chiruthaigal party are clean in their images. But how much votes they will gather is an issue.

There is an old party favoring a community of Vanniars. It is PMK. They struggle it alone, but their image is not so clean since the CM aspirant Anbumani is involved in cases of dubious allotment of medical collages in states for financial considerations. The case is sub judice.

The last front in the contest is BJP which is ruling the center. There is hardly any indication that they will garner double digit seats.


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