Theresa May Goes To The USA Then Kicks The Cat
Theresa May went to the USA to talk to President Trump. Hoping to return with a new trade deal and strengthening of the mythical special relationship with the USA she managed to unveil the contempt in which the US holds the UK, or as it thinks of itself, the British Empire. Hours after she left, while even her own people were saying her grovelling to a satsuma was embarrassing the Clown President of Narcissism imposed a ban on travellers from seven muslim countries. A ban appparently enabled by the Obama administration, a ban that only mentions Syria and that covers seven countries in which the Trump empire has no business interests.
May is Reluctantly Against The Ban
After coming under pressure, despite king maker Nigel Farage supporting the ban to the hilt, May half heartedly condemned the ban and promised to aid any British nationals with dual nationality affected by it. The British Home Office said no British nationals would be affected by the ban and the US embassy rapidly contradicted this. The ban showed that the USA holds the UK in the same degree of contempt in which Westminster holds Scotland. One theory is the ban was a shock event, like 9/11, this time deliberately created to allow passage of more repressive measures, just as the Patriot Act was passed withing days of 9/11 showing all the signs if having been prepared in advance.
Karma struck: an Iraq born Conservative MP who had campaigned to leave the EU in order to limit freedom of movement saying that would help protect the UK and, two days earlier had been praising the Prime Minister and the Special Relationship went on Twitter to lament being banned from the USA because of his country of birth. The heart bleeds for him but there is no record of May contacting Trump to get UK MPs exempted from the ban.
A petition to cancel Donald Duck’s state visit to the UK raised more than a million signatures in two days, but it is impossible to get more than few hundred for a petition on Scottish Independence or Tory plans to destroy human rights in the UK after Brexit, perhaps because of extensive media coverage of the ban and a media blackout on the Tory plans for Human and Workers’ rights.
Kicking The Cat
When someone has a bad day their only consolation may be to kick the cat. After May returned to Little Britain, as the US thinks of it, she and the Tory Party kicked the Scottish Wildcat which has so far not reacted. A Tory MP said publicly that the Scottish Parliament is not the equal of the UK Parliament, The Unelected One said the devolved assemblies would not have a decisive role in Brexit and The Secretary of State For The Interests of England In Scotland, a county he denied exists (thus rendering his job non existent), reacted with unspecified threats to the Scottish government intention to table a legislative consent motion in Holyrood by saying there would be ‘very significant consequences’ -presumably for his job- if the Scottish parliament failed to agree to the great repeal bill which would enshrine EU law in British and Scottish Law prior to its piecemeal dismantlement by the Tories. Meanwhile the Tory mirror party formerly known as Labour ordered its MPs to back the one page Brexit bill the Tories want to rush through Parliament in order to get Brexit started so they can continue, aided and abetted by Labour, with the real work of destroying human and Workers rights in the UK.
None of this boosted support for Independence in Scotland.
NONE of it.
When is The Next Referendum Due?
The Prime Minister has chosen Brexit over continuance of the United Kingdom. When or how independence will come no one knows. One thing seems clear:. Nobody in Scotland wants a referendum – YET - because Unionists and Independence supporters both fear they will lose.
Scotland is still split four ways, one split being on independence and a perpendicular split being on the EU. A simple statement or a mere hint that the Scottish government will hold an EU referendum after Independence, or at least a vote for Independence could swing the electorate towards independence. An Independence referendum after Brexit when the full horror is clear and the Tories are exultantly ripping up everything that makes the UK civilised, in the process damaging the Unionist cause in Scotland could deliver an overwhelming vote for independence. The weak NO voters who switched to YES after the EU referendum as they wanted to be in the EU could be wooed by the chance of Scotland rejoining the EU and the YES supporters who switched to NO because they wanted to be out of the EU could be persuaded to vote YES again, though some care in targeting messages to them would be needed.
No polls ask about the option that dare not be named, UDI. There is an unspoken assumption that support for UDI is practically non existent, though there seems to have been some hints on social media that support for this option is reluctantly growing. Certainly UDI must be the least preferred option for independence and a last resort but the public mood on this must be assessed regularly. The tipping point at which a YES vote in a referendum became likely would, I think, be 25% in favour of UDI. At the same time the YES movement must engage with and convert the lower paid without alienating the middle classes.
Summing Up
The Brexit Phoney war is almost over. America showed its contempt for the UK and Westminster then showed its contempt for Scotland—again. None of this affected support for Independence which remains around 45%, mainly because of ex-YES voters who want to be out of the EU more than they want to be out of the UK. The SNP is still coupling Independence and EU membership thus risking losing a second Independence Referendum. There is no sign of a game changer in sight.
