US likely to be involved in Iraq: Could it be another long drawn war, a Le Vietnam
Bogged in Iraq
Mosul is the headquarters of the ISIS. Possibly the "great Caliph" Al-Baghdadi is holed up there. The place has great symbolic value and the US and the Iraqi army have launched an attack to wrest it back from the ISIS. The battle for Mosul commenced a few months back. That by itself is a sad commentary on the efficacy of the Iraqi army. The Iraqi army on its own has been unable to make any progress. It's fighting capability is suspect as they lost large tracts of land equivalent to the size of France to the ISIS. This was a humiliating defeat and underscored the fact that the Shia-dominated force despite all the training of the US and the latest weaponry was simply not up to the task. The throwing in the towel happened after Obama had withdrawn the US army from Iraq as per his manifesto.
The battle commenced many months back. Seeing the tardy progress the US lent air support and began a bombing of theISIS positions. Some progress was made by the Iraqi after that and parts of the city are occupied. But the war of attrition is not easy and despite US air support, Mosul is still not captured.As a military analyst one can see that US Air Force has created a "favorable air situation" and that alone is responsible for whatever advance the Iraqi army has made.The US has now committed its ground troops to battle and about 5000 of them have entered the arena. Casualties have commenced and the first wounded have been airlifted for treatment. This is sad that soldiers are dying thousands of miles away chasing an impossible dream.
Rise of the Generals
Donald Trump has shown his preference for military generals and inducted 2 of them in pivotal positions. One of them is General Mattis, a decorated soldier but I am afraid with little comprehension of political and economic power. He is hardly expected to know the cost of war. There is another General McMaster also appointed and I am afraid he is in the same boat as Mattis. One can't have generals formulating political policy. The US has been fighting a war ever since 1950. One can say it is a nation in a perpetual state of war. That is certainly not a nice thing.
On a recent visit to Iraq, the secretary defense general Mattis confirmed that the US forces would remain in Iraq even after the capture of Mosul. This is a realistic statement as a soldier. It is well known that the Iraqi army will simply crumble against the iSIS once US support is withdrawn. The question Mattis is unable to answer is that as to how long the US forces will remain in Iraq and if so what will it cost the US? Donald has been trumpeting a reduction in cost for example in NATO, so what will this additional cost amount to? Mattis and other generals may not be aware of a deficit of 3 trillion dollars in the US budget.
Questions about Iraq
This raises serious questions about Iraq. Political strategists are wondering how long will the USA carry on the battle against the ISIS in Iraq. With the Iraqi army inept, the USA is thinking of a Sunni alliance with the Saudi's as the leader. This does not inspire confidence as it is too simplistic a solution. The Saudi alliance has been unable to dislodge the Houthi's in Yemen and beating the ISIS is not going to be easy. The cost to the US economy is also prohibitive with a deficit of over 3 trillion dollars. Who will bridge this? How will a further commitment in Iraq affect the economy? Now one can realize what a blunder George Bush committed. He is sleeping soundly in his bed and the poor Iraqi people are dying by the hundreds.
One has an ominous feeling that another Vietnam is in the making. What happened? a humiliating defeat. Keep your fingers crossed.