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Unintentional Consequences: Trump's Iranian Gambit

Updated on January 6, 2020

Wars in history always begin with miscalculations, over confidence, bravado, and underestimating the adversary. Look at Vietnam from 1945-75, two nations could not win, look at Afghanistan from 1980-now, two nations were unable to win the hearts and minds of the locals, look at Iraq, once conquered by the US and freed from a tyrant, has fallen into a mess from within and outside.

While Iranian people are among the best, smartest, and friendly to other cultures, its government is hostile to most Western societies. Way back in 1953 or so, it was the US CIA that was behind the coup that overthrew the existing leader then. The US then installed their man, the Shah, which was pro-American and Iran's oil industry was developed with many foreign companies. But, the Shah's regime, which was corrupt and brutal, lasted until 1979 when the radical Islamic rebels began their own coup and seized the US embassy and the Shah fled to the US.

Fast forward to now. Now, Trump has been convinced by his inner circle that Iran, in its weakened state from years of sanctions, could have a regime change with a major hit on them. This hit was Soleimani, Iran's top terrorist general, responsible for hundreds of deaths: American, Iraqi, Iranian, Syrian. Israeli. European. But like taking Osama Bin Laden out, Soleimani,was easily replaced to continue to plans made. The fight goes on.

If anything, the assassination made the discontented Iranian people forget their anger towards their government that had caused riots and now fully support them. So, Trump must be dismayed that things are much worse now as the Iranian people did not try to overthrow their leaders. They hate Trump even more now and have put a target on his back by offering $80 million to anyone who can kill Trump.

Pompeo and others that make up Trump's inner circle have always wanted a face-off with Iran. Despite Trump stating that he ordered the murder to prevent a war, Trump is so ignorant of how WW1 began: with an assassination!

Like all monumental decisions, unintended consequences happen that must be dealt with. So far, here is a list of them:

  • Iraq votes to have American troops leave the country
  • Iranian ballistic missiles are made ready to hit any US base or embassy within range
  • Trump will demand repayment from Iraq for facilities built by America
  • Trump will issue sanctions on Iraq if America is kicked out
  • NATO troops in the Mideast stopped training local troops to defend their bases
  • NATO troops in Iraq announce they will leave the country
  • The US refuses to leave Iraq unless on extremely friendly terms
  • Some US troops will leave Iraq
  • Iran threatens to close the Hormuz Straits if US attacks again and vows to retaliate on US soil
  • Trump states that over 50 targets have been selected for US attacks if Iran retaliates
  • Trump has changed the US news cycle from impeachment trial for abuse of power and obstruction, to war with Iran. No longer is the impeachment the only thing being "Headline News". It is a tactic that both Nixon and Clinton did during their impeachment proceedings

The world awaits Iran's retaliation. Trump has acted, took out a top general hoping it would be enough for the population to overthrow the government and had quite the opposite impact. The world is a better place without Soleimani, but far from safe. Americans are far from safe outside the US homeland. If the US leaves Iraq, Iran is the huge winner for sure as to influencing Iraqi politics and being present there, despite what Iraqis want. ISIS, likewise, is a winner. Russia could easily begin to have a presence there, as well.

To think that Trump really thought that taking out one man would change the existing equation with Iran is just plain stupid. Even if a threat was found out that Soleimani had planned an attack on some US embassy, how would killing him change that?

Maybe that is how Iran will retaliate. Whatever happens, Trump's desire to get out of far off wars is now wishful thinking.

Comments

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    • perrya profile imageAUTHOR

      perrya 

      6 months ago

      LOL, what are you exactly talking about that has you all riled up with nonsensical rhetoric?

    • fpherj48 profile image

      Suzie 

      6 months ago from Carson City

      I SEE just fine, Mr. Perry. You're the one with the dark glasses. Don't blame you. It's got to be very painful to see what you see in the twisted world of the Looney Left.

    • perrya profile imageAUTHOR

      perrya 

      6 months ago

      Sorry to hear that you are blindsighted like many, oh well....

    • fpherj48 profile image

      Suzie 

      6 months ago from Carson City

      Really, Perry? Is that your profound statement for the day? Maybe you should hook up with the Illustrious Turban-Head, Un-American, P.O.S Illustrious Ilhan Omar Herself,,,,,,You 2 are perfect for each other. Her, with her "SOME people did SOMETHING," when she referred to 911...and you with your "Some kind of conflict with Iran."....Two disingenuous, ignorant statements, by 2 people who quite obviously feel the need to say "something," despite how stupid it makes you look!

      Do you honestly THINK the rest of the world will respond with , "Ahhh, DUH, Yeah, that's right!" You & Ilhan are examples of why Daffy Duck coined the phrase,,,,"What a Maroon!!"......

      Come out of your fog, Perry. You're walking into walls!

    • Leland Johnson profile image

      Leland Johnson 

      6 months ago from Midland MI

      There has been "some sort of conflict" with Iran since they attacked our embassy and took American hostages in 1979.

    • perrya profile imageAUTHOR

      perrya 

      6 months ago

      There will be some sort of conflict with Iran in the near future

    • peoplepower73 profile image

      Mike Russo 

      6 months ago from Placentia California

      I don't think Trump and his cohorts understand the sectarian dynamics in the region. If they did, they wouldn't have pulled off such a dumb tactical move. Even our media doesn't really present the facts properly.

      Saddam Hussein was a Sunni minority who ruled the Shia majority with an iron fist. He even gassed some of Iran's civilian population. The Shia's in Iraq rejoiced when we we took him out. Not because we were there, but because then the Shia could take over Iraq again.

      Now Iraq and Iran are linked almost as a Shia nation and they want us out of the region. By taking out Soleimani, all they have done is make both countries more united.

      Trump thinks he can bomb 52 targets and all will be well. He has no idea what he is doing because he said he took Soleimani out to prevent war as he sends in 4,500 more troops and wants to bomb their cultural centers.

      It's classic Trump impulse without considering the consequences. This is not like making real estate deals. He has no strategy; he makes it up as he goes along with all his bluster.

      Iran has backed out of the nuclear deal and they are free to fire up their centrifuges while Trump wants to put more sanctions on Iran and Iraq.

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