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Nuclear War-- Iran -- The United States -- Israel-- Inevitable or Avoidable?
THEOCRACY VS DEMOCRACY
While the headlines continue to scream "War" are we really past the point of no return? Is war imminent? Will a new conflict engulf the world and are we spiraling out of control? Will air strikes begin soon or do we still have time? I must admit that I do not have the answers to these questions.We can never predict the inner fears or unknown madness of the minds of our so called leaders. We can never really know how these leaders will react in a crisis until the event happens.
War with Iran has been, predicted, rejected, encouraged,discouraged and discussed over and over and over.........This hub will not get into the specific points and hardened positions of both sides.We'll leave that to the "experts". I believe there is a important part of this showdown that needs to be addressed and perhaps we can come to a better understanding of the potential conflict before some politician, on either side, makes a stupid mistake.
First.... this is not, in my opinion, THE struggle between two civilizations. This is not THE epic battle against the Fundamentalist Islamic Hordes or a renewed Crusade by the Western Infidels. I am not saying that sometime in the future , if common sense does not prevail, we won't find ourselves in such a titanic struggle. I think this present conflict is about something much more basic. Power..... pure and simple One side has it and the other side wants it. The question we all need to be aware of is ...How far will either side be willing to go to prevail?
The most common held belief today seems to be that if Iran succeeds in acquiring nuclear weapons they will, immediately, launch such a weapon and destroy Israel. Of course this will ensure their own destruction as Israel will also launch it's arsenal and Iran and Israel will cease to exist. Many of us, who have been around for a while, are familiar with this scenario. It is, historically, referred to as Mutually Assured Destruction or MAD for short. The United States and The Soviet Union engaged in this policy for almost 50 years and I suppose, in some ways, still do. Simply stated it implies that if you attack your enemy with nuclear weapons and destroy him he will still have time to launch his nuclear weapons, at you, ensuring your own destruction. Both sides lose...Mutually Assured Destruction, To put it bluntly mulitiple gaping smoking craters in the ground where two countries and all their citizens use to exist..Very simple, very honest and absolutely accurate. India and Pakistan are bound by this games deadly assurance today. Even North Korea understands this simple but deadly concept. While there appears to be no shortage of people who would commit a suicide bombing to further their cause there has never been a nation, knowing that their destruction is assured, willing to do so.
Somehow, if we believe the dire warnings, we have to stretch our intellect and our skills of deduction and reasoning to include the possibility that Iran, if she gets the "bomb", is bent on committing national suicide. Is that really possible? Are they so focused on ushering in the era of the Mahdi, the12th Imam, that they would destroy themselves in the process? Maybe now would be a good time to take a closer look at Iran. I'll keep it light and brief.... promise...........no really I will!
The Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the world larger countries with a population of about 70,000,000. Their history, in the area, goes back 6000+ years. The Persians ,which is the ancient name for the Iranian People, along with the Meades, formed one of the greatest world powers that has ever existed. The Meade and Persian empire defeated the the Babylonian empire and ruled much of the known eastern world for centuries. they ruled from about 600bc. Their greatest leaders were Cyrus the Great and Darius the Great . Christians will be very familiar with Cyrus and Darius. The Persians were a fierce and proud people. Independent and strong.Their science and academic achievements are legendary. Their culture spread across the known world and greatly advanced the early steps of human civilization.
As all empires must meet their destiny the Persians met theirs in the form of Alexander the Great. While he conquered the area he recognized the importance of the Persian culture and civilization and kept it largely intact. The next and final conquest of the Persians came at the hands of the Islamic Arab Forces which defeated and absorbed the Persians into the Islamic empire c630 AD. They did not go willingly and it took many decades of fighting but eventually the Islamic conquest succeeded
From 630 AD until this day Iran has been a Islamic country. It has been mostly ruled by a shah or king who has been subject to the Islamic religion to varying degrees, of observance, over time. In 1979 The Iranian Revolution deposed the Shah and his family and under the leadership of the Ayatollah Khomeini Iran became a true Theocracy. A Theocracy simply means that their god "Allah" is the true head of state and he rules through his chosen representative, who in this case came, in the form of Ayatollah Khomeini .A theocracy is a very different form of government to the Western mindset. Some of the differences are startling and indeed explain some of the tensions and misunderstandings that exist today between the West and Iran. .
The face of Iran, to the world, comes in the form of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad... the President of Iran. He is the familiar face that most in the West see as the Iranian leader. He makes the speeches that scare and anger people and inflame passions on both sides. Most citizens of the West, and most of the other Middle East nations,have a very strong opinion of this man and more than a few fear him. We are told over and over, sometimes by Ahmadinejad himself, that he will not stop until he destroys Israel and then the United States. The press reports, daily, that Ahmadinejad is doing everything he can to acquire nuclear weapons and if and when he gets them then World War III will begin!!!
Let me state here , for the record, I am not saying that Iran is not pursing the "bomb" because they certainly are. I am also not saying that they are not a threat to peace and stability in the middle east and the world as a whole because they certainly are. It is quite possible, depending on your point of view, that they are the most dangerous country on earth but what they are not doing is planning national suicide. One thing you need to know is how the Iranian Government works and who is really in charge.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian President, is NOT the leader of the Iran. He is nothing more than a figure head and does what he is told. In fact Ahmadinejad is barely above a cabinet level functionary in the government of Iran. The country's supreme leader is the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He is absolute leader and it serves his purpose, at this time, to have Ahmadinejad front and center in the world press. The Supreme leader is advised by the Council of Guardians who are appointed by the Supreme Leader himself. Then there is the Assembly of Experts made up of 80+ Islamic Scholars who advise the Supreme leader on matters of the faith. Ahmadinejad as President does not even get the final say over his own cabinet. The nominees are subject to the approval of Parliament and the Supreme Leader.It is very important to note here that Ahmadinejad does not control the Armed Forces, The Defense Ministry or the Intelligence Community which, effectively, renders him powerless. These key posts fall under the control of , you guessed it, The Supreme Leader. While the President can nominate ministers to the post of Intelligence and Defense it is little more than a sham. The candidates are personally approved by, and completely loyal to, The Supreme Leader... Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.. They do not answer to Ahmadinejad and , in fact, he has very little imput in these important posts. The most important thing to remember, at this point, is that if Iran gets the "Bomb" Ahmadinejad will have virtually no say as to whether such a weapon gets deployed or not.
When the recent elections took place in Iran the world witnessed something very important and potentially very dangerous. When the Iranian people believed that the elections were stolen from them they took to the streets to protest against their leaders. This does not happen, very often, in Islamic nations. Of course while the marches were instigated by the rigged reelection of Ahmadinejad the protests were really focused on the Supreme Leader Khamenei. He was not amused. He declared Ahmadinejad the victor and attended the swearing in ceremony. If you have the time google the film clip of that ceremony and watch how the Ayatollah treats Ahmadinejad. When Ahmadinejad tries to kiss the Ayatollah, to show his respect, he is snubbed. Watch the tape closely and see how awkward everyone is. Very telling piece of film.
The self interests of the true Iranian Leadership, the Ayatollah and the Mullahs, does not now nor has ever included self sacrifice. These type of people will send others to their death but you will never see a mullah strap on a suicide bomb vest, During the Iran-Iraq war there were infantry charges by the Iranian soldiers against fortified Iraqis positions.These particular types of infantry charges are referred to as "Human Wave Attacks" Many, and sometimes the majority, of the charging Iranian soldiers were unarmed. They were ordered to attack fortified machine gun positions unarmed! Of course the Iranian soldiers were slaughtered by the tens of thousands in these kind of attacks ordered by the Mullahs. They were ordered to do this to prove their commitment to their country and their religion. The point is the Ayatollahs and the Mullahs place a very high price on life when it applies to themselves. Much of the Iranian population, on the other hand is expendable.
The Iranian Leadership does not fear a, conventional, attack by the United States or Israel on their nuclear sites. In fact any attack that, accidentally, killed innocent Iranian citizens would, in some ways, be welcomed. The potential upside of such an attack, for the Ayatollah would be hard to pass up. The sympathetic press coverage along with the requisite swift UN condemnations of the United States and or Israel that would follow would reward the Iranian leadership with a political victory that would transcend any loss to Iran's nuclear program. There really is no downside, for the Iranians, in a large scale attack on their country. This fight is about politics, and power and the Iranians are very patient at getting what they want..
In conclusion I believe it is important to keep a few things in mind. The Supreme Leader of Iran and his Mullahs DO believe in the concept of MAD and that alone will keep them in check. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not the true leader of Iran and is nothing more than a powerless political tool of the Ayatollah. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not now nor will ever be interested in suicide as a future goal. He is interested in power and influence for his country.The Iranians are very astute politically but very weak militarily and they know it.. While they will continue to use their proxies Hamas and Hezbollah to continue to spread their influence in the Middle East they are aware of their limitations. They will achieve far more, riches, power, prestige and recognition, in the world, by NOT acquiring nuclear weapons. They play the political game well and will continue to play it until the very last card is drawn.............. then they will deal.