In 2057 the World Will Be More to Our Distaste than to Our Liking
The eye of hurricane Katrina that was a result of climate change (Photo derived from the film "The Inconvenient Truth")
Predictions of what the world will be like in 2057
It is easy to make predictions in physics or astrophysics. For example, we can say with high degree of confidence that Halley's comet will appear again in 2061 based on its several appearances before, or a gap of 75 to 76 years between its visibility to humans.
We come to human affairs. Let's look back at history. How could WWII have been predicted?
World War I was started by the assassination of Duke Francis Ferdinand that ended in the defeat of Germany in 1919. Then WWII started in late 1930s.
Can we use history as basis of any prediction? History belongs in the humanities and that it is not science (Fontanilla, C.D. Teodoro A. Agoncillo. National Scientist in History. Filipino National Scientist 1978-1998. 200). To Agoncillo, history is art and science. The scientific part is the recording of historical facts like "President Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas, Texas." The art part adds color to historical narration and speculation or arguments like the feat of Magellan. "Magellan is the first human being to circumnavigate the world." The argument is that Magellan had gone to the Moluccas earlier as sailor under Portugal. Then under Spain he lead the expedition that sailed west to get to the east. He landed and got killed by natives in the Philippines that is considered part of the Moluccas.
Incidentally, the first human being to have continuously circumnavigated the world was Enrique, a Filipino. Magellan took him in the Moluccas as an interpreter; took him along in the Spanish expedition. Enrique, along with Pigafetta, chronicler of the voyage, sailed back to Spain through the Indian ocean and Cape of Good Hope. (It is easy for a Filipino to become a polyglot based on alphabet; five Filipino languages have 28 letters in their alphabet whereas the English language has only 26 letters).
Therefore, we cannot draw scientific laws from history. That means, we cannot use the methods of science, like we can do in physics or astrophysics. Can we get advice from Freud?
We can make predictions but at least they should be more accurate than the Mayan prediction that the world would have ended in December 21,2012. What could serve as bases of our predictions?
History is not science but there are elements of history that can be placed in sciences. The thoughts of persons are placed in psychology. For example, Hitler made a secret non-aggression pact with Stalin of Russia but he attacked Russia in 1942 nevertheless. Napoleon Bonaparte was one of a triumvirate to rule France while the French revolution was petering out. Then Napoleon usurped power over his brother Joseph and the other member and proclaimed himself king, crowning himself. When somebody attempted to assassinate him he proclaimed himself emperor. That way ascension to the French crown became hereditary. It became useless to assassinate him because anyone of his relatives would become emperor. That is why we have Bonaparte III in history.
King Henry VIII, when the pope would not approve of his divorce from his wife, Catherine of Aragon, he bolted the Catholic Church, married Anne Boleyn and made himself supreme bishop of the Church of England, independent from the pope in 1532.
Other elements of history can be placed in the science of sociology. That there are adherents of Islam and Christianity belongs in sociology. That adherents believe in their respective bibles belongs in sociology.
That Hitler was able to rouse the Germans owing to the adverse terms of the Versailles Treaty belongs in politics, another science.
Scientific laws can be drawn from these sciences. These laws afford predictions.
Framework of making predictions.
Let's take a look at the superstructures of the world today and what they will be in 2057, about 45 years from now. A superstructure is like a boundary; superstructures define the boundaries of the world. There will be changes within the superstructures we call reforms. There will be changes in the superstructures we call restructuring or revolutions. There will be forces making reforms. There will be forces making revolution.There will be forces opposing reforms or revolutions. How will these forces work? These will work employing power that is a quantitative concept. Power is the ability to attain objectives (Russell, B. Power). If A attains more of his objectives than B, then A is more powerful. Power divides into naked power (policy by the bullet of the gun); persuasive power (speech, writing); economic power (moneys, pieces of property); executive power (president issuing orders); priestly power (capitalizing on faith like the religious).
The Catholic Church endures largely because of fear that one may not go to heaven after death (psychology) and because of the Vatican (sociology and politics).
We consider the intellect as a force. Intellect translates into persuasive power. The intellect is particular in a person, like Einstein. A discovery sometimes comes out of serendipity. A concept is a fruit of creativity. Intellect largely issues out of passion.
"There exists a passion for comprehension, just as there exists a passion for music " (Einstein, A. "On the Theory of Gravitation." Scientific American. April 1950. In Microsoft Encarta 2009).
We can make a model in studying nature, say, Halley's comet. We must know some basic features of Halley's comet, as follows: Edmond Halley made the first record of its appearance in 1705. It revolves around the sun in an elliptical path. its distance from the sun is 0.6 AU at the nearest and 35 AU at the farthest. Its speed is 70.6 km/sec. It can be seen by humans in 75-76 years. Its last appearance was in 1986. It travels opposite the direction of planets around the sun like the Earth. If you had seen it through a telescope in 1986 and had recorded the angle correctly, you can see Halley's comet again, at more or less the same angle in 2061.We can draw on paper the orbit of this comet with the sun as center. Or we can make a planetarium. The drawing or the planetarium is a model.
We are almost certain that we will see Halley's comet again in 2061 based on its several appearances before with a variance of 75-76 years that we have recorded. The variation is owing to gravity of planets like Jupiter and Saturn. The degree of certainty of its visibility is derived from past observation and the assumption that no force will disturb it or its environment. The effect of any variation or disturbance is also known.
We are dealing with prediction that is different from modelling. In modelling the basic features are known; cause of any variation is known, like gravity of other planets. In prediction some basic features are unknown; cause or effect of any variation is unknown.
I once edited a doctoral dissertation on the yield of rice based on rainfall For example: If rainfall was 35 mm the yield was 100 cavans per hectare. If rainfall was 40 mm the harvest was 120 cavans per hectare. The other features were: one variety of rice was planted, the same ricefield was planted, the rate of fertilizer was the same, the method of management for both yields was also the same.
The association established (with the use of regression correlation) was amount of rainfall and harvest per hectare. A farmer who sees the present rainfall as 30 mm expects to harvest 100 cavans per hectare. At 40 mm rainfall he expects to harvest 120 cavans per hectare. Any variation from these harvest is about 5%
However, there are other factors that were not accounted for. For example, occurrence of typhoon, or flood, or pest, or duration of sunlight. One factor or a combination affects the yield per hectare and the effect is unknown. Once a flood visits his growing crop that sustains some substantial damage, the farmer can only guess the number of cavans he will harvest.
Such is the hazard of prediction. Not all relevant factors are considered or others are missed. A prediction is subject to variations when done on human affairs, humans being so variable. Not all his thoughts and actions are under control. However, human beings in groups or nationality can be predictable. Let's look into examples.
After WWI the US turned isolationist, that is, it did not want to meddle in the quarrels of Europe. That is the reason why the Americans did not ratify the League of Nations that was proposed by Pres. Woodrow Wilson whereas Great Britain ratified it. When WWII broke out, the US stayed out of it. However, the US is excitable. Japanese warplanes were "allowed" to attack ships of the American navy docked in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii on December 7,1947. On December 8, the US declared war on Japan and entered WWII. If not for the Japanese attack the US might have not entered WWII.
Why we say "allowed." Before the attack, the secret Japanese code had been broken by the Americans. However, the lone scrambler in Pearl Harbor was switched off when the Japanese attackers were on their way to Hawaii., The navy commanders in Pearl Harbor were investigated on the attack. Their negligence was established but they were never punished.
In 1900, the US used a ruse to annex the Philippines. It bought the Philippines from Spain. However, the Filipinos had already attained independence through a revolution against Spain in 1898. After a mock battle where the American fleet annihilated the dilapidated Spanish fleet, American forces deployed in the outskirts of Manila, the Philippine capital. Filipino revolutionaries defended Manila from the Americans. In February, US congress had a heated debate whether to take the Philippines or not. There were more members of congress who did not want an empire than there were imperialists. The American forces in Manila provoked a shootout with Filipino forces. The shooting incident turned the anti-imperialist around and the US took the Philippines as the first country in its empire. Filipinos resisted and the Philippine-American war ensued.
Prediction with bases, one of which is an assumption
This is another kind of prediction. This was done by Maxwell, Einstein and Paul Dirac who predicted the existence of positron in 1928. Einstein used the Lorentz transformation as an assumption in his special theory of relativity and generalized theory of relativity. I have elaborated this method in my Hubs on how the shape and size of killed poliovirus incite immunization, theory of heart disease, and the Big Bang theory of the origin of the universe.
Electricity as superstructure
There might have been only oil lamps during the time of Michael Faraday (1781-1867). He discovered diamagnetism and electromagnetism that would eventually light the world with electricity. He made the first dynamo. We may classify Faraday's discovery as electricity, a superstructure.
James Clerck Maxwell converted the experimental results of Faraday into mathematical formula and added to them mathematical formulas of his own. Out of his manipulation of Faraday and Maxwell formulas, Maxwell came up with a prediction in 1865. He said that electromagnetic waves can be reproduced in another spot through space. However, he could not demonstrate his prediction for lack of device.
Eight years after Maxwell issued his prediction, a device to demonstrate it was invented by Heinrich Hertz, called coherer. Guglielmo Marconi took over Heinrich's work, improved upon the coherer and developed ways to transmit electromagnetic waves over long distances. The longest distance was across the Atlantic ocean. The Morse code, using Marconi's experimental results, saved 1,700 passengers of the Titanic;1,513 drowned. In WWII, the Royal Air Force shot down a lot more German Luftwaffe by means of the radar, also a Marconi invention.
We can say that the work of Maxwell, Hertz and Marconi are reforms within the superstructure of electricity. What forces were at play? On the part of Faraday, Maxwell, Hertz and partly Marconi, it was intellect. Let's allow a Freudian term, ego. Profit motive already was at play on the part of Marconi who made profits out of his inventions. He was an Italian, whose parents were an Italian father and a British mother. He set up shop and business in London because his father discouraged him on science and lack of financial support in Italy (Goldsmith, M. Guglielmo Marconi. 2003). Was there a change in electricity superstructure?
A change in electricity superstructure consisted of a jump from the use of static electricity to alternating current.
Persons involved were Thomas Edison, American inventor and industrialist, and Nikola Tesla, a Hungarian born and educated engineer, who came over to Edison for work. Edison employed him but disliked him because Edison developed direct electricity whereas Tesla was passionate about alternating current. Tesla moved over to Westinghouse who hired him as consultant and allowed him to develop his alternating current. Tesla supervised the construction of hydroelectric plants in Niagara Falls (without the use of blueprints). He demonstrated that alternating current distribute electricity in distant places. Static electricity could not, without incurring costs that are prohibitive. We are now using alternating current whether they are produced by distant hydroelectric plants or nuclear power plants, or coal-fired electric plants, or gasoline-run dynamos.
The forces that brought about this revolution in electricity were intellect, ego, and profit motive. Edison disliked alternating current because he believed it could kill people. Tesla believed otherwise and demonstrated it by holding one negative rod in one hand and positive rod on the other hand. Westinghouse is still making a lot of profits out of alternating current.
One more example of a superstructure that underwent a revolution: peace among nations. WWI that started with the assassination of Duke Ferdinand Francis and ended with the defeat of Germany in 1919 saw peace among nations. However, this superstructure was changed by WWII that started in late 1930s. What were the forces that brought about this revolution?
The Treaty of Versailles entered into by Germany and the Allies was adverse to the Germans. Germany was a former monarchy; the treaty prescribed a democracy. Also, the reparation fines imposed on Germany triggered a runaway inflation that inflicted suffering on the Germans.
Hitler and his Nazis came into power in Germany in 1933. Hitler used his objections to the Treaty as platform to become chancellor of Germany. Gen. Erich Ludendorff who had worked under Hitler earlier predicted doom for Germany in making Hitler chancellor. The German president thought he could control the irascible Hitler by making him chancellor.
Gustav Krupp of the Krupp family, the steelmaker and top arms manufacturer in Germany, did not like the Versailles treaty. He saved the Nazis in 1932.
I.C. Faben, a merchant banker saw that Germany (the Axis powers for that matter) could be financed to make the American dollar the dominant currency in the world and take over the British pound. Merchant bankers used WWII to weaken Europe and sponsor the government of the US to carry out their economic agenda.
France, the immediate neighbor of Germany did not complete the Maginot line confronting Germany. it failed to modernize its army. German tanks, and artillery just rolled over the Maginot line. Germany occupied the neutral Poland. Switzerland fought hard to stay neutral and succeeded. Italy conquered Ethiopia. Spain stayed neutral. In Europe, only Great Britain stood in the way of Hitler. However, he was too "romantic"(according to Mao Tse-tung, chairman of China) that he did not invade Great Britain after Dunkirk. Great Britain did not have enough land forces at that time to resist German invasion. Early in the war, the US can only help Great Britain by means of lend-lease because it had not declared war on Germany. Besides the US did not want to meddle in the quarrels of Europe. The US joined the Allies after a Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, Hawaii in December 7,1941. They war was fought on the European theater against Italy and Germany, and the Pacific theater against Japan. President Franklin D Roosevelt of the US and Winston Churchill, prime minister of Great Britain, agreed that Europe was to be given priority over Japan
Russia did not join the fray. He had made a secret non-aggression pack with Hitler earlier. However, Hitler attacked Russia in 1942. Russia was saved by its winter. Joseph Stalin, premier of Russia, grumbled that the US and Great Britain took too long to put up another war front for Hitler. (This could be one of the seeds of the Cold War).
Since 1943, Krupp industries fast tracked the rearming of Germany upon orders from Hitler, for tanks, guns, warplanes, ammunition, ships, submarines (U-boat). Thus the superstructure of world peace changed over to World War II.
The head of intelligence of the German armed forces, Wilhelm Canaris, plotted the assassination of Hitler that failed. The first suspect as mastermind was Gen. Erwin Rommel, an able general who resisted the forces lead by Field Marshall Bernard Montgomery of Great Britain in the deserts of Africa. Rommel. "Desert Fox," committed suicide before he could be investigated. Canaris was eventually executed. When the Allied invasion could not be stopped, Hitler committed suicide, with his mistress, in April 1945. Hitler's Germany surrendered In June 1945.
The civilian industry of America was transformed into a war industry. Before, in the US it took one year to build a ship; in 1943, it took only 56 days. In secret it was developing the atomic bomb; it dropped one over Nagasaki, another in Hiroshima in August 1945. Each bomb killed at least 60,000 military personnel and civilians. Japan surrendered in August 1945.
After WWII, there came about new superstructures: United Nations, US dollar has taken over the British pound as world currency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Cold War. The Big Three, US, Russia and Great Britain, decided the fate of the world at the Yalta conference in February 1945.
So much of past history; let's turn to the present superstructures.
In 1944 to 1973, the world currency was the American dollar based on the gold standard. In 1973, the US abandoned the gold standard and adopted the floating rate system. Now, in 2013, the gold standard is back.You can review political and economic history how the gold standard and floating rate system played out. The recent snafu in the floating rate system was the depression, mainly in the US that is still being cured by Pres. Obama. One credit that can go for the floating rate system is that the depression did not spread throughout the world like a conflagration. Under the gold standard, it would have been a world conflagration. Still, the floating rate system had flaws that those in power think they can remedy with a new gold standard. The changeover from the British pound to the American dollar as world currency is considered a change in superstructure. The changes from the gold standard to the floating rate system and back to the gold standard this year are reforms.
The forces (intellect and ego) involved in these reforms are merchant bankers and internationalists. Governments carry out their economic agenda, using naked power (wars), economic power (sanctions) and political power (legislation).
In 2057 the world currency will be the American dollar, based on the new gold standard, rules by Basil III.
We can think of other superstructures like world trade organization. climate change, health care, medicine, food, demographics and communications.
World trade organization (WTO)
This is part of globalization. There is no more boundaries of investments; goods, services, now cross country barriers. English is the language of globalization. Countries with extra large production in wheat, cotton, corn, onions, beet sugar, apples, drugs, for example,have pushed globalization. That is, countries with the advantage of mass production.
Smaller countries resist globalization. Small producers of onion resists the entry of cheap onions from other countries.
What forces will make reforms in WTO. There are disparities in production. WTO rules out subsidies in agricultural production. However, soy beans and corn production are subsidized in the United States. Sugar beet production is subsidized in Europe. Countries producing sugar cane object to sanctions on sugar cane production to no avail, as of now.
However, subsidies in industrialized countries are too glaring that injustice in the WTO cannot be glossed over.
Moreover, multinationals in foreign countries pay salaries to the domestic labor only 10% of what they pay in their home countries.
China's labor pay rate is moving up. Some American companies in China are now considering moving to another country to take advantage of low labor cost.
There will be movements to advocate changes in WTO.
in 2057, there will be reforms in WTO.
The world is warning owing to human activities like dumping of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. World temperature is rising, glaciers are melting, sea level is rising as well. More diseases are getting into epidemic levels like malaria, cholera, and dengue. Flash floods, landslides and erosion are occurring.
Candidates of the Republican Party in the past US presidential election denied the presence of climate change induced by humans. industrialized countries that emit a lot of carbon dioxide resist the movement to lessen carbon dioxide dumping, so do oil exporting countries.
However, even industrialized countries like France, US, Great Britain were visited with floods recently. Recall the Katrina hurricane and the recent one in New York? The backlash from nature is largely responsible for the change in thinking of industrialized countries. In the latest climate change conference in Copenhagen, participated in by US Pres. Obama and Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State, dumpers committed one billion dollars out of 10 billion asked for, to climate change research and mitigation.
Profit motive will drive the marketing and use of natural gas, shale oil and fossil fuel up until 2057. Some alternative sources of energy will be in place like biofuel, wind power, hydroelectric power and solar power. Nuclear energy, that does not produce carbon dioxide, will still be in use that partly mitigate climate change. But these will be in the form or reforms.
It is likely that fusion energy from hydrogen will be used by more countries.
In 2057 there will still be flash floods, epidemics and hurricanes owing to climate change.
Expansion of the universe
The universe will continue to expand, if slowly, according to human perception. GMA News TV just flashed today (January 29,2013) a sinking hole in China that gorged a lot of buildings. It is highly probable that it is a case of expansion of the universe. Similar sinking holes occurred in Brazil.
Such expansion was predicted by Einstein in 1915 derived from his generalized theory of relativity. It was confirmed by Edwin Hubble in 1929 derived from the red shift.
Albert Gore, former US vice president and recipient of Nobel Prize for peace in 2007 (along with thousands of scientists who comprised the International Panel on Climate Change) showed a reconfigured attachment between Europe and Africa in the film "The Inconvenient Truth.". That could be a speculation but highly probable considering the fact that the universe is at least 4 billion years old.
in 2057, there will be sinking holes, earth quakes and tsunamis owing to expansion of the universe. However, it is difficult to predict where sinking holes will occur. Tsunamis will more likely occur in the Pacific, particularly near archipelagos.
Medicine: germ theory of disease
The first revolution in medicine was triggered by the germ theory of diseases. It was inaugurated by the French, Louis Pasteur in 1881-84. Earlier he discovered that wine is a by-product of microorganisms. Then he discovered that rabies was caused by a microorganism. He concocted a vaccine against rabies. A contemporary was the English, Edward Jenner who made a vaccine out of cowpox microbes to vaccinated against smallpox. The German Robert Koch discovered that tuberculosis is caused by a microbe. He concocted a vaccine against tuberculosis and devised the Koch postulates for use in identifying microbes that cause disease.
The English, Joseph Lister, propagated the germ theory. He observed that a lot of mothers giving birth died when they were attended to by doctors who came direct from the morgue. He thought microbes from the dead could have been causing infections. He admonished doctors to wash their hands and use disinfectants in attending to delivery of babies. At that time only carbolic acid was available as disinfectant. It took the medical profession 40 years to adopt the germ theory of disease. The most hesitant were the Americans.
A reform within the superstructure of germ theory of disease was the discovery of penicillin by Alexander Fleming. A microbe produces toxins that kill other microbes, he called such microbe antibiotic. The problem of mass production of antibiotics was solved. Now we have a lot of drugs against microbes and a lot of diseases caused by microbes are under control.
Another reform in the germ theory came with the development of the Salk polio vaccine. Up until the 1930s, it was believed that only live, weakened microbe can be used as vaccine. This was advocated by Dr. Albert Sabin, an American. Dr. William Park, an American, and Maurice Brodie, a Canadian, believed otherwise and used killed virus in a vaccine. The trial run of their vaccine resulted in a fiasco. More of those vaccinated died. It was discovered later on that the deaths were not owing to the failure in vaccination but owing to the microbes that attacked the spot of injections.
Another reform was the conquest of N1H1 or the Spanish flu virus that killed 25 million people around the world in a pandemic in 1918-19.Dr. Thomas Francis, Jr. and Dr. Jonas Salk adopted the killed virus technology and came up with a vaccine effective against the N1H1.
The polio epidemic struck, since 1916 and lasted until 1960s, a lot of Americans, including Franklin D. Roosevelt who later on became US president. He, together with Basil O'Connor, developed an otherwise private spa in Warm Springs Georgia for curing his legs into the National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis (NFIP), now called March of Dimes. NFIP funded the medical research of Dr. Jonas Salk to develop a vaccine. The final trial of the vaccine on 1.8 American children was conducted in 1954; the Salk killed poliovirus vaccine was launched in 1955, benefiting the world. The weakened virus vaccine of Dr. Sabin was given a trial run but since 2000 it ceased to be administered at least in America.
[Optional reading: model of worldwide adoption and effect of polio vaccines
This model is probable because a worldwide vaccination against polio had been done.
There are two versions of polio vaccine. One was developed by Dr. Jonas Salk and his team, the inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). It consists of killed poliovirus administered by injection. The other version was developed by Dr. Albert Sabin consisting of weakened or attenuated virus, dubbed as oral polio vaccine or OPV. IPV was developed, in 1954, ahead of OPV developed in 1959.
There was rivalry in the theory (intellectual force) between IPV and OPV. By tradition, it was believed that only live attenuated microbe can serve as vaccine. IPV was supported by the National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis; OPV was developed in Russia. Government research agencies were left behind, except that of New York where Dr. William Park was employed. He, together with Maurice Brodie, a Canadian, developed the killed poliovirus vaccine but ran into a fiasco in their first trial due to infections on the injection site. That is, not owing to the vaccine itself. Dr. Park and Brodie were vilified publicly that they abandoned their breakthrough. Dr. Salk adopted Dr. Park’s technology and modified it, providing protection against infection in the injection site. Dr. Salk also developed the chicken egg technology in growing and congregating virus. NFIP ruled that whichever came out first successfully at vaccination will be offered to the public. The private pharmaceuticals were waiting in the sidelines; five of them were given license to manufacture the vaccine once it had been approved for use.
The final trial of IPV on 1.8 million American children in 1954 gave the results as follows: 68% effective against Type I polio, 100 % effective against Type II polio and 92% effective against Type III polio. IPV was launched in 1955.
Type I was “the one most likely to lead to epidemics and paralysis of the limbs. Type II was a milder virus than Type I, the likeliest to lead to asymptomatic cases, though in the weak or unlucky it could still paralyze or kill. Type III was the rarest of all and that was a very good thing since it was the one most likely to lead to bulbar polio, the infection of the medulla oblongata, the lower bulb of the brain, leading to paralysis of the diaphragm, destruction of breathing, and so often death….” (Kluger, J. Splendid Solution, Jonas Salk and the Conquest of Polio. 2004:99-100).
IPV and OPV were used in the US in mass campaigns and routine childhood programs. Then in 1988, the World Health Assembly decided to eradicate polio globally by year 2000.
OPV was used in mass campaigns synchronized first in the Americas then worldwide in 2 to 3 days. Follow ups were done house-to-house then in focus areas (Sutter, R. W. and C. Maher. "Mass Vaccination Campaigns for Polio Eradication: An Essential Strategy for Success." Mass Vaccination: Global Aspects - Progress and Obstacles. 2006:195).
By 2003 there were about 700 reported polio victims in India, Pakistan and Nigeria. In 2000, only the IPV was given at least in USA. The weakened virus in OPV can mutate and infect an unvaccinated person; it is a source of virus that causes paralysis. OPV served is primary purpose of disrupting the distribution of wild poliovirus.
The prediction of eradication was based on a worldwide synchronized program. It was coordinated by the WHA. Funding was provided by the WHA and all countries. That is, most of the factors in an eradication program were under control. Prices of OPV and IPV are low because no royalty is charged for the development of these vaccines. Prices would be higher if these vaccines were developed by one member of Big Pharma.
Prediction for 2057 of vaccination would be different if the forces were driven by consumer demand, paid for by consumers, and facilities were provided by local governments and private sectors like Jaycees or Rotary Clubs or Kiwanis. End of polio model]
However, the virus cannot be neatly placed under the germ theory of disease. The reason is that the virus is not a microbe, like bacteria or fungus. The virus is only a message, not a cell. It consists of RNA (ribonucleic acid) or DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid). Some vaccines against the virus fail. The hepatitis B, C, and C vaccine fail to completely prevent infection. The vaccine against the HIV/AIDS shows more failure than success. Drugs are not completely successful against the virus. In fact, antibiotics cannot kill virus. The varicella vaccine against the chickenpox virus cannot completely eliminate the virus; some remain, travel to the spinal cord, stay dormant. When conditions favor it, the causal virus, Herpesvirus varicellazoster awakens and cause herpes zoster, with extremely painful blisters.
There is an ongoing reform in the fight against hepatitis. Dr. Arturo V. Estuita, MD, a Filipino internist and chelationist, discovered that hepa B virus can be chelated with EDTA (ethylene diamine tetra acetate). Since March 2012 he has treated patients with hepa B. Patients in other countries have been asking for more information about this therapy.
Efficacy of chelation therapy against hepa B and consumer demand are pushing this reform in medicine. It is more likely that in 2057 chelation therapy will be widely used against hepa B, C, and D.
That is despite objections or sanctions by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). This agency has become more a protector Big Pharma than of the consumers. Likewise, the American Medical Association will hammer down sanctions on doctors who administer experimental treatments and prescribe herbals. Medical schools and medical publications will snub experimental treatments and herbal medications. Doctors will prescribe drugs whose properties they had learned from Big Pharma.
Another forces against chelation are HMO (health managed organization) and insurance that do not fund treatments they consider experimental. This practice is being adopted by developing countries.
There is a new insight in the approach toward HIV/AIDS. HIV get into the brain through monocytes then macrophages, components of the immune system. A monocyte is a young macrophage; monocyte is vulnerable to HIV. Once in the brain, HIV is protected by the blood-brain barrier such that any drug administered cannot get to the HIV. That is why the brain serves as a factory of HIV. There will be medical research to find out how to prevent HIV from attacking the monocyte. There will be tests to find out if HIV is also amenable to chelation.
In 2057, alternative medicine or integrative medicine will have a hard time pushing reforms.
In 2057, HIV/AIDS will be neutralized as a dreaded disease.
Herpes zoster is a reemerging epidemic. It is caused by Herpesvirus varicella that also causes chickenpox. In a fellow who gets well from chickenpox, the virus travels to the spinal cord and remain dormant until favorable conditions awakens them. Once awake the virus cause herpes zoster with extremely painful blisters. The varicella vaccine at present does not completely protect against the virus. It is more likely that the virus has more types than the present vaccine can handle. There be more studies of the virus; chelation will be tried against it.
In 2057, herpes zoster will be largely under control.
Malaria is now reemerging as epidemic due largely to resistance to drugs (chloroquine) developed by protozoa. Some herbs have been used against them, like cinchona that gives quinine. This is not being promoted because it is not a drug and therefore not approved by the Food and Drug Administration of the United States. In the US any medication that is not drug is illegal. Cinchona extract needs to be modified to get rid of the unwanted elements to minimize side effects.
In 2057, modified herbal extracts will be widely used against malaria owing to consumer demand, despite sanctions from the FDA.
Smoking cigarettes and cigars (tobacco consumption).
Smoking, consumption of tobacco for that matter, is a superstructure by itself because of its impact on the health of humans. It causes heart disease, cancer, emphysema, bronchitis, hypertension and more minor diseases.
In the past there had been a strong anti-smoking movement but the money of the tobacco industry had been stronger. Fortunately, President Obama last year signed into law mandating the FDA to regulate the cigarette industry in removing polonium in cigarettes.
After a series of lawsuits, the cigarette industry was forced to admit the presence of poisons in cigarette like polonium (Melpor. Hubpages.com). This is a radioactive material that when it decays it emits x-rays and generates free radicals. X-rays and free radicals cause cancer and other tobacco-related diseases.
We will see how FDA carries out its mandate. Removal of polonium will impact on the lessening of cancer and heart disease cases. In fact, tobacco also contains lead 210 that is similar to polonium. The sanction against polonium will impact on other countries that are growing tobacco.
Today the Philippine Senate is debating on the issue of raising more taxes on cigarettes, primarily to raise revenue not as a way to abate cancer or heart disease! Other countries will follow the lead of US in removing poisons in tobacco. i am advocating a ban on growing tobacco, at least in the Philippines.
FDA can move to come up with lenient standard on the level of polonium retained in cigarettes as it did with asbestos back in 1970s, Only long fiber asbestos was banned, while short fiber asbestos was left unchecked, that is more hazardous than long fibers in causing asbestosis and lung cancer (Epstein. S S. MD. The Politics of Cancer. 1978).
In 2057, smoking will dwindle and heart disease and cancer as caused by smoking will decline.
Medicine: free radical theories of disease
In the 21st century there emerged diseases cancer, diabetes, heart disease, arthritis, lupus, osteoporosis, and motor neuron disease (also called amyotrophic lateral sclerosis or Lou Gehrig's disease). These disease cannot be neatly placed under the germ theory of diseases because they are not caused by microbes. They are called degenerative diseases or autoimmune diseases by conventional medicine. The conventional treatment for heart disease are angioplasty or coronary arterial bypass graft surgery with a mortality rate of 2 to 5%. Conventional treatment for cancer is chemotherapy. Still heart disease ranks number one and cancer ranks number two as killers in the world.
Now in place is the superstructure free radical theories of disease. This was inaugurated by Dr. Denham Harman, MD in 1962. It is in the same category as the germ theory of disease. It came out from the reinterpretation of free radicals that have been produced in the body and by the environment. Besides being a by-product of the metabolism of glucose to produce energy, free radicals also cause disease.
For example, we breathe molecular oxygen that consists of two atoms of oxygen and two unpaired electrons spinning around the whole molecule. Molecular oxygen gets into metabolism with a by-product that is superoxide, with one unpaired electron spinning around the whole molecule. Superoxide reacts with other molecules and produce siblings like hydrogen peroxide, hydroxyl radical, peroxynitrite and more. Molecular oxygen and superoxide are free radicals, their siblings are reactive oxygen species (ROS). ROS act like free radicals and also cause disease. I have several Hubs on this topic.
Each free radical and each ROS is a theory by itself. Atomic oxygen and molecular oxygen are a fundamental element whose functions are beneficial to humans. Their by-products produce siblings that are detrimental. Two atoms of atomic oxygen form molecular oxygen (O22+), that we breathe and use in the metabolism of glucose to produce energy; by-products are water and superoxide, a free radical. Superoxide reacts with nitric oxide to produce peroxynitrite (a ROS) that catches nitric oxide, a signal that triggers the inner layer of artery to dilate and allow more blood flow. This alleviates angina and prevents heart attack in a person with heart disease. Superoxide reacts with another superoxide and forms hydroxyl radical (a ROS), the most destructive radical, it causes motor neuron disease, among others. Free radicals and ROS grab electrons from low density lipoprotein in fats (also egg yolk) and turn it into lipid peroxide that add to the plaque in heart disease. (I have Hubs that elaborate how free radicals and ROS form disease. That is why the concept free radical theories of disease is coined).
The unpaired electrons of molecular oxygen and superoxide grab electrons of other molecules like that of DNA resulting in injury. An injured DNA results in tumor then cancer. Injury may also result in emphysema, or diabetes, or osteoporosis, or arthritis, or lupus, or motor neuron disease, or heart disease and more degenerative diseases. .
Conventional medicine, AMA, FDA, American Heart Association and Big Pharma snub the free radical theories of disease. However, one of its applications, chelation therapy, is making headway. Over 600,000 patients in America had been cured by chelation therapy. It is now being used to cure hepa B patients.
Free radical theories of disease have been used to develop methods to prevent, treat and cure degenerative diseases. Herbs, and antioxidants are employed; they satisfy the hunger for electrons of unpaired electrons of free radicals and ROS. That is enough to neutralize them.
Free radical theories make coronary arterial bypass graft surgery and angioplasty (with or without stent) obsolete. Heart surgery is a billion dollar industry that is why its purveyors, conventional medicine and Big Pharma, are blocking the teaching of free radical theories, development and administration of applications. Antioxidants in fruits and vegetables can prevent cancer and heart disease. FDA will not approve the use of antioxidants that are not drugs. The use of Essiac, an herbal extract against cancer, has been declared as illegal in the US despite the fact that it has healed a lot of cancer patients . HMO and insurance consider chelation therapy experimental and will not pay for its use.
Consumer demand, efficacy and effectiveness will push free radical theories of disease despite road blocks put up by AMA, FDA, AHA, Big Pharma, and conventional medicine.
In 2057, applications of free radical theories of disease will widely used. Cases of heart disease, cancer and other degenerative disease will decline.
The US and China has allied together since 1972. Their alliance is not based on common beliefs and systems. Their differences are enumerated in their treaty. The US has a capitalist economic system; China has a mixed economy. There is popular election in US; none in China. Their alliance has resulted in a more peaceful world. They are rivals in many respects but their rivalry is not conducted in the manner of the Cold War. Kissinger, then national security for Pres. Nixon, and negotiator for the US said that the US will not invade China. Mao Tse-Tung, then Chairman of China, said China will not invade the US. Taiwan, occupied by the Kuomintang, adversary of the Communist Party during the Chinese civil war, has been relegated as a domestic issue of China, according to the rapprochement treaty between the US and China.
In 1975, Mao and Kissinger were agreed that the USSR should be weakened first before East Germany and West Germany could unify. Both of them favored such unification (Burr, W. Editor. The Kissinger Transcripts. 1999). In 1989, USSR as an empire broke up. In 1990, Germany was unified.
In 2057, there will be localized wars for oil, territory and religion. However, there will be no nuclear war between the US and China.
Medicine: Stem cell therapy
The fertilization of the egg by the sperm results in a zygote that is one cell. The zygote belongs in the stage totipotent stem cell. It undergoes differentiation into an embryo that differentiates into a fetus that differentiates into a full term that emerges as newborn baby.
I have formulated a stem cell-organism theory, thus: “A trigger induces stem cell to differentiate into an organism.”
We are talking of multi-celled organism like a human being. This theory is a superstructure in medicine. It has several benefits like cloning or trees, cloning of livestock, and therapy in medicine.
The stages of differentiation are totipotent stem cell, that differentiates into pluripotent cells, that differentiate into multipotent cells, that differentiate into unipotent cells, that produce adult cells. Eyes, blood, nose, skin, liver, heart, kidney, bone, sex organ, ear are adult cells.
A pluripotent cell can be grown to repair a torn ear, or to repair a damaged valve of a heart. An adult cell can be reprogrammed to produce pluripotent cell. Stem cells from cord blood can be grown to treat leukemia and other adult cells. A stem cell from a cell can be used to trigger stem cells to grow damaged organ like liver. Stem cells from the blood can be grown for use to trigger stem cells in the heart to differentiate and repair a heart afflicted with cardiomyopathy (with deteriorating muscles). Stem cells can repair damaged cells that is why it can delay aging.
A trigger can be a hormone or an enzyme. It will not grow to repair a damage organ. That is why a human being given stem cells from a sheep will not grow fur. Also, a person given fertilized chicken egg will not grow feathers.
Stem cell therapy is a promising treatment or cure for a lot of diseases, especially those caused by free radicals and their derivatives. Stem cell therapy is still in the trial stage in the United States. Some people cannot wait and want to get the benefits from stem cell therapy right away. This therapy is now given in the Philippines, Thailand, India, and China.
Resistance to stem cell therapy comes from conventional medicine, AMA, AHA, FDA and Big Pharma.
Consumer demand and market forces will spur medical research in and adoption of stem cell therapy. Anecdotal and clinical evidences will push stem cell therapy.
In 2057, stem cell therapy will be widely used.
(This Hub can go overly long. I might as well write a book to cover more superstructures and elaborate them in more detail.)