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Why the Dems will win 2016 and the Republicans will never win again!

Updated on April 3, 2016
TessSchlesinger profile image

Globetrotter, author, and thinker with interests in environment, minimalism, health, dancing, architecture, décor, politics, and science.

The world is changing: money affects politics!

Capitalism gave the appearance of working for a long time, and it did so because resources in earlier times in the New World were plentiful. The migration of people from the old world to the new world in the 17th century meant that access to those resources were easily obtained and minimal effort (comparatively) would result in success. However, the 21st century has seen the dwindling of those resources and increasing numbers of people are working themselves to a bone and only those that had a head start through family money, connections, etc. are able to access the resources necessary for success. Capitalism only works if there are sufficient natural resources that are free for everybody to exploit.

Add to that, the rapidly upward gravitation of money to the .001% with the equally rapidly disappearance (internationally) of the middle classes, and the times of ancien regime and feudalism are more the way of things than the democracy of the 50s. It's no accident that five years ago, somewhere between a hundred and hundred and fifty people owned half the world's wealth, in 2014, 84 people owned half the world's wealth, and in 2015, 62 people owned half the world's wealth.

With a younger generation, this seems massively unfair. They’re not going to be voting for a party that supports big business which is seen to be a ‘grab all’ affair.

There are enormous changes in the world these last fifteen years of the 21st century, and they are leading both to radicalisation of the extreme right and to a further shift towards the left (socialism). In third world countries, the fundamentalist parties tend to win while in first world countries, movements towards socialism tend to win.

...white Millennials are more liberal than the whites in older generations.
...white Millennials are more liberal than the whites in older generations. | Source

Liberal values are increasing

Education – the accumulation of widespread knowledge – is increasing for all people as a result of the internet. Whereas previously, a limited view of the world made it easy to presume that one way suited everybody, the growing realization amongst people that what fits one person does not fit another person has resulted in an increase in liberal values. Exposure to other cultures has also engendered more acceptance of other cultures by younger people.

In May, 2015, the UK went to the polls. The SNP (Scotland National Party), a socialist political party, won 56 out of the 59 seats in the Scottish Parliament. Nicola Sturgeon, the leader, filled stadiums and the millennials flocked to support her.

The Conservatives (Tories) won against Labour (left) in the UK as a whole. Consequently, Ed Milliband, the leader of the Labour Party resigned and the election process began. There were five or six 'New Labour' nominees, and someone suggested that an old fashioned socialist be added to the leadership selection. Nobody took it seriously, and Jeremy Corbyn, an old time socialist and complete outsider was suggested. In weeks, Labour Party membership jumped. Normally, there are three rounds to the voting, but as Corbyn won leadership with 69% of the votes in the first round, no further rounds were required. In the week after his election to the Labour Party leadership, 25,000 new members signed up. By October, membership of the Labour Party had doubled.

When Bill de Blasio won New York, it showed a dramatic shift to the left of the most powerful city in America. To quote from an article in the Daily Beast, " It’s part of a vast shift that could upend three decades of American political thinking."

Christianity decreasing; secularism increasing.

Internationally, Christianity faces doom amongst the younger generation. In America, the younger generation is increasingly becoming ‘nones’ and atheism is growing.

In the UK, only 3% of the British attend Church with more than 50% of the country seeing themselves as either secular or atheists. Countries like Denmark and Finland (as well as other countries in western Europe) tend to be secular and atheist. The reason is that the more educated people are, and the more prosperous they are financially, the less they believe in a god.

According to an article in Huffington Post, 7.5 million people have lost their religion. To quote "When asked their religious preference, nearly 1 in 4 Americans now says “none.” Up until the 1990s, the percentage who were in this group known as “nones” hovered in the single digits. The 2014 GSS showed that nones are 21 percent of the population, up one point from 2012."

Liberal values are, therefore, more supportive of secularism than the religious fundamentalism of the GOP (Republican Party).

Re-examination of political and economical systems.

As more and more people begin to wonder why why neither the political system nor the economic systems is working for them, all aspects of all systems will be questioned. This includes political two party system and capitalism. Books like Thomas Piketty's 'Capital in the 21st Century' have set new parameters for questioning old system.

At the basis of all the frustration about these systems is that they do not benefit the greater number of people in the world. They work for the rich, the powerful, the talented, the cheaters and liars and sociopaths, but they leave everybody else living lives of quiet desperation.

The right supports traditional values which love hierarchies; the left supports equality.

Capitalism has not been able — or willing — to control the “race to the bottom” caused by “free trade,” as mid-level jobs continue to be transferred to low-wage countries.
Capitalism has not been able — or willing — to control the “race to the bottom” caused by “free trade,” as mid-level jobs continue to be transferred to low-wage countries. | Source

Why the two party system doesn't work

The new swing towards the left and socialism

In May, 2015, the UK went to the polls. The SNP (Scotland National Party), a purely socialist political party, won 56 out of the 59 seats in the Scottish Parliament. Nicola Sturgeon, the leader, filled stadiums and the millennials flocked to support her.

The Conservatives (Tories) won against Labour (left) in the UK as a whole. Consequently, Ed Milliband, the leader of the Labour Party resigned and the election process began. There were five or six 'New Labour' nominees, and someone suggested that an old fashioned socialist be added to the leadership selection. Nobody took it seriously, and Jeremy Corbyn, a complete outsider was suggested. In weeks, Labour Party membership jumped. Normally, there are three rounds to the voting, but as Corbyn won leadership with 69% of the votes in the first round, no further rounds were required. In the week after his election to the Labour Party leadership, 25,000 new members signed up. By October, membership of the Labour Party had doubled.

When Bill de Blasio won New York, it showed a dramatic shift to the left of the most powerful city in America. To quote from an article in the Daily Beast, " It’s part of a vast shift that could upend three decades of American political thinking."


People are angry with big business!

Both the left wing and the right wing are angry. They are angry because Washington are catering towards their needs and, consequentially, they are facing increasing hardship. As 57% of voters are angry with large corporations, and as Bernie Sanders' campaign is against these large corporations, he is more in tune with the American people.

Increasing inequality, scarcity, debt

According to Oxfam, a leading British charity, during the past five years, the poverty of the poorest half of the world's population has doubled. In 2009, the American census established that half of Americans were living either on the poverty line or below the poverty line. As the only people who have benefited from the increased profits of the Obama years are the rich and the mega-rich, it stands to reason that the poor have become even poorer.

The idea that business is entitled to profits at the expense of the masses because business benefits the masses by providing jobs (no matter how well paid) is increasingly questioned as people become poorer. The swing towards conservative business principles and privatization has seen fewer services and facilities for greater numbers of people and more expensive goods. The knowledge that big-business exports jobs to third world countries, removes its money from America and deposits it in tax havens, plus uses multiple loopholes (written into law as a consequence of lobbyists willing to bribe politicians) to avoid paying their fair share of taxes has angered many and is the reason for an increasing interest in socialism.

Last year 84 people owned half the world's wealth.  Five years before that, a few hundred owned half the world's wealth.
Last year 84 people owned half the world's wealth. Five years before that, a few hundred owned half the world's wealth. | Source

Climate change damages homes and threatens lives

While Republicans, in their support of big-business, have gone all out to deny climate change, the increasing number of storms, the damage caused by icy cold conditions, floods, and drought has been increasingly noticed by the general population. Interestingly, most Americans believe that climate change is happening, regardless of party affiliation.

As Republicans refuse to factor climate change into their policies, people concerned about their own safety and future will move towards the left as it is the left who are investing in clean energy.

Hollywood on Climate Change

Changing demographics

The last two elections have shown a dearth of inspired leadership in the GOP. All the candidates running have, to a greater or lesser degree, been out of step with the 21st century. Religious fundamentalism, hatred and bigotry against minorities, and a prevailing ignorance do not appeal to secularists, immigrants, gays, Latinos (17% of the American population), African Americans, Native Americans, and/or intellectuals. In addition, millennials are have no confidence in the current political system (25% of the American population) which it believes has sold them out. Death also brings a shift. As old white men and the power of patriarchy dwindles, so does support for Conservative values.

More than anything, millennials of all races, cultures, religions simply do not see the world the same way as their parents and grandparents.

Will you vote Republican or Democrat?

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First world America becoming more first world!

Social networking, particularly G+, has brought together people of all countries and cultures. This has exposed Americans to free or inexpensive health care, extensive public transport, mandatory paid leave, and other socialist norms.

Generally interaction with people with different ideas changes people over a period of time.

I saw something like this happen in South Africa. As Grand Apartheid made it illegal for whites and blacks to socialize, white people who had the vote (black people were disenfranchised) did not see black people as people. Then, in 1976, television was finally made legal. The South African Broadcasting Corporation leased the Cosby Show for the black people. One thing led to another and white people loved it! It was the first time many of them had ever seen black people as human.

Young Afrikaners growing up exposed to this had a different idea of ‘different’ people to that of their parents. When De Klerk, unilaterally, told the people of South Africa that there would be an open election for all people, it was accepted by white people. Why? I think because by that time the generation of younger people who had grown up viewing American television where black people were just the same as everybody else had a different view of ‘die swart gevaar’ (the black danger).

I think the web is doing the same thing. The web savvy generation has been exposed to an international view point and have consequently grown more sophisticated politically. This leads towards liberalism and progressive politics. In general, as internet exposure, most Americans are moving towards the same socialist and progressive values as the rest of the first world.

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    • TessSchlesinger profile image
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      Tessa Schlesinger 17 months ago from South Africa

      J Schwartz. You're right. I'm going to go back and change that. It's not so much that what I wrote was wrong but that it was ambiguous. I have now corrected it. Capitalism never worked. It simply gave the appearance of working. :)

    • TessSchlesinger profile image
      Author

      Tessa Schlesinger 17 months ago from South Africa

      Jacklee. Because I was ignorant at the time. I thought that I would find a job in America. I didn't. I learnt the hard way.

    • RJ Schwartz profile image

      Ralph Schwartz 17 months ago from Idaho Falls, Idaho

      First sentence - capitalism worked for a long time, which implies it was successful

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 17 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Tess, your long response confuse me. If you have been in all these countries that succeeded, why did you come to the US? When you don't have any idea what makes America exceptional? I have traveled much around the world, and I believe the US is the best country despite the flaws. The democrats lost the Senate and then the House because they were too left leaning and the American people rejected them. The policies have failed and the last 7 years are prove. This next election will be a total land slide and we have Obama to thank for it. The world you talk about are weak and have no business criticizing the US. They have failed their own people and failed the middle east by allowing ISIS to grow unchecked. I am supporting Cruz for President because only a Conservative can save the world. Before you criticize conservatives, you need to learn what a conservative stand for- it is not the same as republican. This election is the outsiders who reject both the progressive democrats and the insiders elites that have sold out the American people. That includes many republicans in power.

    • TessSchlesinger profile image
      Author

      Tessa Schlesinger 17 months ago from South Africa

      I've confused. Where did I say that capitalism was a success? I haven't. Where am I a hypocrite? Please be specific.

    • RJ Schwartz profile image

      Ralph Schwartz 17 months ago from Idaho Falls, Idaho

      Quite hypocritical - you stated before that capitalism was a failure

    • TessSchlesinger profile image
      Author

      Tessa Schlesinger 17 months ago from South Africa

      jackclee, I'm a global citizen with the right to live and work on three continents, and I was living in London at the time that Bush decided to go into Iraq. The British parliament and the British people voted against it. Tony Blair went against their wishes and he subsequently lost his position as Prime Minister. There were also trials of sort about it. He got off, but he is hated.

      Even in 2003, I was warned against coming to America. I was told that Americans were stupid, ignorant, and aggressive. I didn't realize until then how many people held that opinion of Americans. You can read a book entitled 'The Ugly American' which was published in 1958 about the same thing.

      Bush cost America credibility. He would not allow the United Nations to go in and prove there were no weapons of mass destruction. From that day on, America started to lose all credibility she has ever had. America's loss of credibility started long before Obama.

      When I was in South Africa in 1999, my boss told me he had worked in New York for six years and that Americans were incredibly stupid.

      Why don't you google that? It has nothing to do with Obama. It has been like that for at least half a century.

      And the last straw was Bush going into Iraq. No country will ever ally with America again. They probably also don't need to China and Russia are building massive forces. So if aliens land, they can turn there. America is persona non gratis. Not Obama's fault.

      I am not sure how the last 8 years destroyed the Democratic Party. The Dems started moving right in the time of Reagan in order to win seats. The Clintons are not liked, and Hillary is abhored. However, the GOP has the same situation. Both parties are splitting down the middle for the same reason - people are struggling financially. Only there are different interpretations. The Republicans believe that a billionaire will bring all the money back, not realizing that they are poor precisely because he and others are billionaires. The Dems realize that there is a system that makes some rich at the expense of others and the system has to be changed.

      The liberal progressive 'experiement' has worked in every successufl country in the world. Norway has the richest per capita population in the world. Finland has the best educated people in the world. The top 12 countries in terms of wealth per capita, living standards, social security, etc. (Australia, New Zealand, Germany, France, the UK, Holland, etc.) are all way ahead of the USA. You don't know that because a) you have been lied to by your press and politicians and b) you have never lived and worked there.

      I have.

      Trump and Sanders. The world outside has lost every bit of respect for America as a result of so many Americans supporting Trump. Why don't you read foreign newspapers. I would suggest www.guardian.co.uk

      The American people have NOT rejected the 'liberal agenda.' What has happened is that the Republicans have gerrymandered voting districts, prevented liberal hotspots from voting. The 'popular vote' is liberal. It has been for a very long time. That means that if you just look at the numbers (without the districts) more people would vote liberal. Gerrymandering is the process whereby you change the districts so that if there are 1500 people in the area and 1300 of them are liberal, you split the district into three. Two areas have 100 votes (all of them Republican) and one of them has 1300 votes (democrat). You then have 2 republican candidates vs 1 dem candidate. That is what has been happening.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 17 months ago from Yorktown NY

      Tess, where do I begin? The last 7 years have seen the destruction of the Democratic party on all levels from federal to states to local. The American people have rejected the Obama liberal agenda of tax and spend, omnibus bill, the lost of real wages, the stagnant economy, the loss of full time jobs... It has also seen the lost of American soverignty and respect around the world. Our friends don't trust us and our enemies don't fear us. Race relations hasn't been so bad in 40 years. The borders is wide open and police is under siege in major cities. I can go on but you will not see what I see. If you had told me the election of the first black president will bring down the democratic party, I would not have believe it and yet it is happening right in front of our eyes. The liberal progressive experiment has failed. If I was a democrat I would not be cheering.

    • TessSchlesinger profile image
      Author

      Tessa Schlesinger 17 months ago from South Africa

      I would be really curious as to how America has taken a backwards step due to Obama's administration.

      You might consider the following.

      1. The inequality in America is 6th from the bottom. The gap between the rich and poor in America is what is driving the hardship in America. Services are rapidly disappearing, the worst being the lowering of education which is making people ignorant of facts.

      2. America is being overtaken by other countries and has been for at least 20 years. Again, this has nothing to do with the current administration as there have been several administrations between them.

      3. The Millennials (younger people) are wholeheartedly behind Bernie Sanders (80%) while Trump only has middle aged and older white men.

      Can you tell me why you think that problems that have evolved since Reagan and Thatcher and are now coming to a head are the fault of the current administration?

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 17 months ago from Yorktown NY

      You highlight some of the problems but your conclusion are sorely off the mark. I predict a resurgence of conservatism in 2016 and the Republicans will win by a landslide. The reason is simple. People are realizing that the last 8 years have proven the failures of progressive and liberal policies. We have taken many steps backwards in the economy, in foreign policies, in the war on Islamic extremism and in race relations. Actually, both parties, backed by big donors on wall street have sold out the American people. That is why the top candidates in the Republican party are political outsiders. Whoever wins, will change the party for the better and also change our country back to Constitutional Republic.

    • TessSchlesinger profile image
      Author

      Tessa Schlesinger 17 months ago from South Africa

      I am obviously foolish. My need for sanity is more important than immediate concerns... :(

    • moneymindit profile image

      Money Man 17 months ago from California

      Hi Tess,

      My need for food, clothing and shelter keep me working here. LOL!!

      MM

    • TessSchlesinger profile image
      Author

      Tessa Schlesinger 17 months ago from South Africa

      Um. yes. I don't know how you do it. I worked for a Republican Christian in Texas for two months. That was it. I couldn't stand it.

    • moneymindit profile image

      Money Man 17 months ago from California

      I hope you are correct about your statements that people are leaning more towards atheism and leaving religion behind. It is very upsetting that there are people in this day and age who still believe in a God. I work for a person who is a Christian Republican. Little does she know that I am an Atheist Democrat.

      Great hub! I am now following you.

      MM

    • kalinin1158 profile image

      Lana ZK 20 months ago from California

      You're probably right, assuming that the voters really do decide who gets elected. I've come to doubt it...

    • lovemychris profile image

      Yes Dear 20 months ago from Cape Cod, USA

      To my 21 yr old daughter, watching Ted Cruz is like watching an alien from outer space.

      These Republicans have no grasp on reality.

      The only problem with my 21 yr old is with her dismissing them, she has not noticed them wipe away her rights. No problem, shell say. I use birth cotrol...but sometimes things happen...i got pregnant on the pill.

      The fact that now, 2016, it would be hard to end a pregnancy-- is a hardship this generation will have to re-live, just like my mother's.