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Election 2012: Why President Obama Will Be Re-Elected
Will President Obama be re-elected?
There is little doubt that the 2012 Presidential election is going to be explosive. With the exception the Civil War Era an argument can be made that the American public has never been more divided in our politics than it is right now. The right wing has accused the President of being a Socialist, Racist, Communist, Fascist and just about every other extreme name you can think of. On the Right we have seen a boom in conservative commentators, especially on Fox News. In 2010 we witnessed the emergence of the Tea Party and historic elections that gave the Republicans a majority in the House of Representatives. If you watch Fox News or listen to Right Wing talk radio you would think that this election should be a walk in the park for the Republicans. After all, Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell has made it clear that his party’s top priority is to make “Obama a one term President.” Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck have expressed their confidence that President Obama will not be re-elected.
Make no mistake, the American public is going to have a clear choice on what direction they want the country to go. I want to be clear here. I am not a Democrat or Republican. I am an Independent and have voted for both Democrats and Republicans in my lifetime. The following it just my observations. I realize this hub may spark intense debate. It is my hope to create a civil discussion on this very important time in American history.
Here are four reasons why Barack Obama will be re-elected in November:
1. Mitt Romney
Throughout the Republican Primary it has been clear that the Right has been on a quest to find anybody but Mitt Romney to take on President Obama with the full knowledge that eventually he would become the nominee. Conservative pundit Ann Coulter predicted this a long time ago when she said Romney will lose to Obama. Many on the right share her feelings on this and that explains why many Republicans have been begging for someone like Jeb Bush or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to get in the race. Mitt Romney also established the health care law as governor of Massachusetts that would eventually serve as the blueprint for the Affordable Health Care Act AKA "Obama Care". This is incredibly important because the health care law was one of the primary issues that drove the Tea Party and right wing talking heads over the edge in 2010. Now we are going to see the architect of this law debate a man who simply agreed with his concepts. Mitt will explain that the law is bad and he plans to repeal it, but most voters recognize this simple flaw. Mitt is in a corner that he cannot escape with this issue and he will not be able to recover from.
Another big problem with Mitt Romney is his inability to connect with the everyday American. Romney is clearly a member of the elite 1% of America. He has been privileged his whole life. Here are some of Romney's comments that demonstrate my point:
The other potential damaging aspect of Mitt Romney’s bid for the White House is his religion. Mitt Romney is a Mormon. Generally speaking the Christian-Evangelical Right will come out in drones to vote for the Republican in a general election. This year however poses a problem for that demographic. They have a choice between a President they hate or a conservative that is not of their faith. Many experts believe this could lead to thousands of Christian-Evangelicals staying home on election day which will benefit the President.
2. The War on Women
The the last two years there has been a alarming amount of abortion and contraception bills being proposed and passed by Republicans on both the state and federal level. This is surprising because Republicans ran in 2010 on the platform that they were going to focus on jobs and the economy. Instead they have launched a retro culture battle that they cannot win.
According to the Guttmacher Institute, the states enacted a record number of abortion restrictions in 2011.Perhaps the most alarming law was in Virginia. The law would demand that women seeking abortions would be forced to have a vaginal ultrasound. This set off a firestorm of angry protestors from the right and left. Virginia Governor Robert McDonnell would eventually back off once he faced the immediate backlash.
Then of course there is the birth control issue which has done nothing but hurt republicans and unite Women and liberals alike. The issue exploded when the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform debated whether or not requiring insurers to cover woman’s birth control was a violation of their religious freedom. The problem was that the panel was made up entirely of men. This led to the national story of Georgia law student Sandra Fluke making an appearance in front of the Democratic Steering and Policy Committee. Ms. Fluke was blocked from testifying in front of the House Oversight Committee (All male) and made her argument for woman’s health. This led to some pretty viscous attacks from the right, especially from Rush Limbaugh. Most rational people would recognize this type of behavior is terrible for the Republican brand and it will hurt Mitt Romney in the general election. Women voters will not forget this incident.
3. The Economy
One thing is perfectly clear. President Obama inherited a horrific mess left by the Bush White House. Two unfinished and unpaid for wars and an economy in a death spiral. President Obama took bold action. Republicans will never admit it, but the stimulus worked and the economy is improving. Nothing can make this case better than the now famous bikini graphwhich charts the job growth in the United States from the end of the Bush Administration to today. Since January 2010 we have begun to see job Growth in American and there is nothing that the right wing can say to dispute this very simple fact. It is true the unemployment numbers are not we would all like, but they are improving and that is an incontrovertible fact.
Even Republican political pollster Scott Rassmussentold a very conservative crowd “If the economy continues to improve consistently between now and November, President Obama will be re-elected.” (htpolitics.com) This bodes well for President Obama.
4. Health Care
Fox News and right wing radio hosts have done their very best to try to convince the American public that the Affordable Healthcare Act (Obama Care) is a vast government takeover of healthcare and will be devastating to the United States. Recent polling suggests their tactics have worked. Some polls show that over 50% of Americans oppose the law. But when you get into specifics of the law the overwhelming majority of Americans love it. You won’t find many people who oppose insurance companies not being able to deny people coverage for pre-existing conditions. You also won’t find any Americans who think it’s OK to drop people based too high of medical costs. Most people love the idea of children being able to stay on their parents health care until the age of 26.
The issue here is that Republicans have only voiced their desire to repeal the health care law while provided no alternative. So what happens if the law is repealed? Do we go back to insurance companies deciding who lives and who dies? I feel like Mitt Romney, having such close ties to the structure of this bill will not be able to convince the American public that he has a better idea on how to handle the countries health care concerns. The debate of this very important issue falls heavily in the President’s favor. In short, I don’t think anyone would argue that the Affordable Health Care Law is perfect, but do we have a better alternative at this point?