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Updated 11-09: United States Senate

Updated on November 9, 2016

November 9 Summary Remarks

I did a lot of work (and I mean a lot!) on the Senate elections in the last few days before the election. When the odds Bayh (D) would win in IN dropped about 40% in a few days (there was light polling in IN which created the incredible amount of variability), the most likely outcome was 50 seats. This assumed D wins in WI, PA, IL, NV and either MO or NH. Feingold in WI was obviously not helped by Clinton's really poor showing there - that was a real upset, although WI was another state where the probabilities were decreasing for the Democratic Senate candidate. PA was also an upset (McGinty losing), again not helped by the poor turnout among Democrats for Clinton. Democrats are disadvantaged in PA without early voting especially in a city like Philadelphia. With the loss in PA, the only way the Democrats could get to 50 was to win both NH and MO, and they lost the battle in MO - game over. NH has not been called (with 98% reporting, Hassan (D) leads by less than one thousand votes - they appear to be ripe for a recount, but that will not affect control of the Senate).

Enough for now, maybe I will try something similar in a couple of years - do not know - shall see. Thanks to my readers.

Probability Democrats Gain Four Seats or More: 58.75%

Updated on November 8, 2016 [update #1]

There are ten competitive Senate races (please see details below). There are 1024 possible outcomes therefore associated with these ten races. There is also the question of whether Clinton or Trump wins the presidential election. The probability the Democrats win a total of at least 50 seats or more is 58.75%, using the very latest data sets. The probability that the Democrats can secure control of the Senate, regardless of who wins the presidential election (meaning the Democrats get to 51 seats or more) is now 29.34%. There is now a 29.40% probability that the total Senate number is exactly 50 for the Democrats, and so the deciding vote would be cast by the Chair of the Senate (the Vice-President). In this latest data set, a 50 seat outcome remains the most probable outcome in the election this year. This makes the result of the presidential election even more important.

Exact probabilities:

  • Democrats pick-up exactly 4 seats net: 29.40%
  • Democrats pick-up exactly 5 seats net: 20.10%
  • Democrats pick-up exactly 6 seats net: 7.65%
  • Democrats pick-up exactly 7 seats net: 1.48%
  • Democrats pick-up exactly 8 seats net: 0.11%
  • Democrats pick-up exactly 9 seats net: 0.00%


Most Likely Positive Outcome for the Democrats

Updated: November 8, 2016 [update #1]

There are a total of 1,024 possible outcomes for these ten elections. The chart below shows the most likely outcome for which the Democrats get to 50 seats or more, given current polling data. Please note that the exact probability that this set of 10 elections will turn out this way is 3.98%. This outcome is the most likely of all 1.024 outcomes. Please check back often as several of these Senate races are quite fluid.

Most Likely Positive Outcome for the Democrats

 
D
R
Winner
Probability
Net D Pick-up
AZ
Kirkpatrick
McCain
McCain
97.50%
0
MO
Kander
Blunt
Blunt
60.33%
0
FL
Murphy
Rubio
Rubio
89.23%
0
WI
Feingold
Johnson
Feingold
76.67%
1
IL
Duckworth
Kirk
Duckworth
97.67%
1
IN
Bayh
Young
Young
65.27%
0
PA
McGinty
Toomey
McGinty
68.80%
1
NC
Ross
Burr
Burr
67.43%
0
NH
Hassan
Ayotte
Hassan
51.60%
1
NV
Cortez Masto
Heck
Cortez Masto
64.73%
0
Overall
 
 
 
3.98%
4
Current
 
 
 
 
46
Projected
 
 
 
 
50
Most Likely Scenario in the Senate [update #1 for Nov. 8]

Most Likely Positive Outcome for the Republicans

Updated: November 8, 2016 [update #1]

Assuming Clinton wins the Presidential election, the most likely Republican hold in the Senate requires Republican victories in AZ, MO, FL, IN and NC where in each state the Republican candidate is favored (please see chart below). The deciding state would be NH, where the Republicans would be required to hold that seat, a campaign where the Democrat is now slightly favored. This specific outcome, out of all 1,024 possible outcomes, has exactly a 3.73% probability. This outcome would bring the count in the Senate to 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats and 2 Independents. This outcome is currently the 2nd most likely outcome out of the data set of 1,024 possibilities. It would seem that the question of whether the Republicans can continue to control the Senate comes down to the NH race.

Most Likely Positive Outcome for the Republicans

 
D
R
Winner
Probability
Net D Pick-up
AZ
Kirkpatrick
McCain
McCain
97.50%
0
MO
Kander
Blunt
Blunt
60.33%
0
FL
Murphy
Rubio
Rubio
89.23%
0
WI
Feingold
Johnson
Feingold
76.67%
1
IL
Duckworth
Kirk
Duckworth
97.67%
1
IN
Bayh
Young
Young
65.27%
0
PA
McGinty
Toomey
McGinty
68.80%
1
NC
Ross
Burr
Burr
67.43%
0
NH
Hassan
Ayotte
Ayotte
48.40%
0
NV
Cortez Masto
Heck
Cortez Masto
64.73%
0
Overall
 
 
 
3.73%
3
Current
 
 
 
 
46
Projected
 
 
 
 
49
Most Likely Favorable Outcome for the Republicans in the Senate (Update #1 on Nov.8)

2nd Most Likely Positive Outcome for the Democrats

Updated: November 7, 2016 [update #2]

The 2nd most likely outcome, given up to date polling, is that the Democrats will pick-up a net total of 4 seats (please see following chart). This would bring the Democratic total in the Senate to 50. Please note that the exact probability that this set of 10 elections will turn out this way is 2.14%. There are a total of 1,024 possible outcomes for these ten elections - this is currently the 4th most likely outcome overall.

Second Most Likely Positive Outcome for the Democrats

 
D
R
Winner
Probability
Net D Pick-up
AZ
Kirkpatrick
McCain
McCain
96.90%
0
MO
Kander
Blunt
Blunt
60.67%
0
FL
Murphy
Rubio
Rubio
88.53%
0
WI
Feingold
Johnson
Feingold
77.57%
1
IL
Duckworth
Kirk
Duckworth
97.23%
1
IN
Bayh
Young
Bayh
37.07%
1
PA
McGinty
Toomey
McGinty
70.90%
1
NC
Ross
Burr
Burr
67.63%
0
NH
Hassan
Ayotte
Ayotte
50.03%
0
NV
Cortez Masto
Heck
Cortez Masto
61.23%
0
Overall
 
 
 
2.14%
4
Current
 
 
 
 
46
Projected
 
 
 
 
50
2nd Most Likely Scenario Favoring the Democrats in the Senate [update #2 for Nov. 7]

2nd Most Likely Favorable Outcome for the Republicans

Updated: November 7, 2016 [update #2]

The 2nd most likely favorable outcome for the Republicans requires a win in NV (please see chart below). This defeat of the Harry Reid (D) seat would bring the Republican number in the Senate to 51, the Democrats to 47 and the Independents to 2. The probability this specific event would occur is 2.29%. Out of all 1,024 possible outcomes, this result is the 3rd most likely overall.

2nd Most Likely Favorable Outcome for the Republicans

 
D
R
Winner
Probability
Net D Pick-up
AZ
Kirkpatrick
McCain
McCain
96.90%
0
MO
Kander
Blunt
Blunt
60.67%
0
FL
Murphy
Rubio
Rubio
88.53%
0
WI
Feingold
Johnson
Feingold
77.57%
1
IL
Duckworth
Kirk
Duckworth
97.23%
1
IN
Bayh
Young
Young
62.93%
0
PA
McGinty
Toomey
McGinty
70.90%
1
NC
Ross
Burr
Burr
67.63%
0
NH
Hassan
Ayotte
Hassan
49.97%
1
NV
Cortez Masto
Heck
Heck
38.77%
-1
Overall
 
 
 
2.29%
3
Current
 
 
 
 
46
Projected
 
 
 
 
49
2nd Most Likely Favorable Outcome for the Republicans in the Senate (update #2 for Nov. 7)

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