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Will Trump Win in 2020?

Updated on July 6, 2020

If election were today, Biden would be odds on favorite

Attribution Gage Skidmore
Attribution Gage Skidmore | Source

Battleground state polling data updated July 5

(click column header to sort results)
State  
Biden  
Trump  
# Polls  
Iowa
45.5%
46.5%
4
Georgia
46.1%
45.8%
8
Ohio
46.7%
46.3%
3
North Carolina
46.4%
44.2%
17
Arizona
46.7%
43.6%
12
Florida
48.3%
43.9%
14
Pennsylvania
48.6%
43.5%
11
New Hampshire
49.0%
42.0%
1
Wisconsin
48.7%
41.3%
12
Michigan
49.8%
41.3%
17
Based on the average of all polls released since May 1, 2020.

As of July 6, where do state races for President stand?

The electoral vote outcome based on 148 state polls since May 1 would be Biden 367, Trump 171.There has been no change in the direction of state polls in battleground states in the last day.

Outside of the "battleground" states noted in the chart above, based on polling or in the absence of polling - historical pattern, Trump is projected to win Oklahoma (+19%), Kentucky (+18%), Alabama (+14%), Kansas (+12%), Indiana (+10%), Montana (+10%), South Carolina (+10%), Mississippi (+9%), Tennessee (+9%), Utah (+7%), Missouri (+3%), Arkansas (+2%), Iowa (+1%), Texas (+1%), Alaska (no polls), Idaho (no polls), Louisiana (no polls), Maine-2 (no polls), Nebraska including Nebraska-2 (no polls), North Dakota (no polls), South Dakota (no polls), West Virginia (no polls) and Wyoming (no polls). Biden has the advantage in Delaware (no polls), District of Columbia (no polls), Hawaii (no polls), Illinois (no polls), Oregon (no polls), Rhode Island (no polls), Vermont (no polls), Nevada (+4%), New Hampshire (+7%), Maine including Maine-1 (+11%), Minnesota (+11%), Virginia (+12%), New Mexico (+14%), Colorado (+17%), New Jersey (+21%), Connecticut (+23%), Maryland (+24%), New York (+24%), Washington (+24%), California (+27%) and Massachusetts (+34%).

The most competitive "non-battleground" state, which bears watching, is currently Texas (Trump +1).

In order for Trump to win, his most likely path based on the polling data depicted in the chart above, is to win in all of the following states, from most likely to least likely: Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania. If Trump wins in each of those seven states, and carries every state he is expected to win (listed in the paragraph above), that would bring the total to Trump 280, Biden 258. With this particular outcome, Trump does not need to win in New Hampshire, Michigan or Wisconsin. Based on existing polling data, Pennsylvania is the key state. If Trump wins in Pennsylvania he should have won in the other six states. If Biden wins in Pennsylvania, he should also win in New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin and Biden would win the election. As readers can see, as of July 6, Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania by 5.1%. Currently, in PA, eight of the national rating projections have Biden in the lead and five call it a toss-up.

In terms of use of state polling data, this analyst chose to start with May 1, 2020, and to not weight polling data in any way. Simple averages will be used through the election. This capsule will be updated any time there is a poll in a battleground state listed in the chart above. There are no toss-ups in this analysis, unless there is a tie to one decimal point in polling data. If a state has no polls at all, then historical voting patterns are used to make a projection.

What do national rating projections say as of July 6, 2020?

(click column header to sort results)
Analyst  
Date  
Biden  
Trump  
Toss-Ups  
U.S. News
June 19
248
204
86 (PA, NC, FL, NE-2,AZ)
*Princeton 0
July 6
402
135
1 (ME-2)
**Princeton D+3
July 6
409
119
10 (NH, AR)
***Princeton R+3
July 6
315
192
31 (NC, GA)
NPR
June 17
238
186
114 (ME-2, NH, PA, NC, FL, OH, WI, AZ, NV)
Politico
July 6
268
203
67 (NC, FL, WI, NE-2, AZ)
CNN
June 11
232
205
101 (PA, NC, FL, MI, WI, AZ)
Niskanen
June 25
289
163
86 (ME-2, NC, GA, FL, IA, NE-2)
PredictIt Market
July 6
334
204
0
The Economist
July 6
308
164
66 (NC, GA, OH, IA, AZ)
Inside Elections
May 8
268
204
66 (NC, FL, WI, NE-2, AZ)
Cook
June 19
248
204
86 (PA, NC, FL, WI, NE-2, AZ)
Crystal Ball
June 25
268
204
66 (NC, FL, WI, NE-2, AZ)
*Princeton 0 = current polling. **Princeton D+3 = current polling +3% to Biden. *** Princeton R+3 = current polling +3% to Trump.

National Rating Organizations: Biden 268, Trump 197, Toss-up 73

Using the rule that at least a majority (seven) of the thirteen national rating projections have to agree as to each state being either in the Biden or Trump column, Biden stands at 268 electoral votes (including NH, PA, MI, NV) , Trump at 197 electoral votes (including GA, OH, IA) with there being 73 electoral votes up for grabs (ME-2, NC, FL, WI, NE-2 and AZ). The most recent changes were (a) Politico - ME-2 from Trump to toss-up, MI from toss-up to Biden, NV from toss-up to Biden, NH from toss-up to Biden and PA from toss-up to Biden, (b) Crystal Ball - FL from Trump to toss-up and PA from toss-up to Biden, (c) Cook - MI from toss-up to Biden, (d) Economist - IA from Trump to toss-up, (e) Niskanen - OH from Trump to toss-up, (f) Princeton (0) TX from Trump to Biden, (g) Princeton (D+3) TX from toss-up to Biden and NE-2 from Trump to Biden and (h) Princeton (R+3) NC from Trump to toss-up and PA from toss-up to Trump. When you examine all thirteen national projections, the strongest agreement is (a) MI: 12 favor Biden, 1 toss-up, 0 Trump (b) NV: 12 favor Biden , 1 toss-up, 0 Trump , (c) IA: 11 favor Trump, 1 Biden, 1 toss-up and (d) NC - 10 favor toss-up, 2 Biden and 1 Trump. The weakest agreement is (a) NE-2: 6 favor toss-up, 4 Biden, 3 Trump and (b) ME-2: 6 favor Trump, 5 toss-up and 1 Biden.

National polls: Biden 50% - Trump 41%

(click column header to sort results)
´╗┐date  
poll  
Biden  
Trump  
2-Jul
YouGov
45
40
2-Jul
Monmouth
53
41
1-Jul
Ipsos
46
38
1-Jul
Investor Business Daily
48
40
1-Jul
Change Research
49
41
1-Jul
Morning Consult
47
40
1-Jul
Hart
55
41
1-Jul
Harris
56
44
30-Jun
Suffolk
53
41
30-Jun
Pew
54
44
29-Jun
RMG
47
39
29-Jun
Optimus
45
41
26-Jun
Marist
52
44
26-Jun
HarrisX
43
39
26-Jun
Kaiser
51
38
26-Jun
Climate Nexus
48
41
25-Jun
CNBC
47
38
24-Jun
Siena
50
36
24-Jun
Data for Progress
50
44
23-Jun
Public Policy
52
43
22-Jun
Echelon
50
42
20-Jun
Survey Monkey
53
43
18-Jun
Fox News
50
38
18-Jun
Quinnipiac
49
41
18-Jun
Democracy Fund
50
39
National analysis based on median of the most recent 25 polls. Only one poll (the most recent) per polling organization is included.

Why worry about national popular vote?

The national, popular vote based on the median of the most recent 25 national polls has Biden at 50% and Trump at 41%. As we know, the office of President is determined by the electoral college, not the popular vote. However, out of 58 U.S. presidential elections, in only five has the popular vote and electoral college outcome not matched. The most recent was 2016 when Trump defeated Clinton in the electoral college but lost the popular vote by nearly 4 million (51%-49%). The controversial race prior to Trump-Clinton was Bush-Gore when Gore won the popular vote by 500,000 but lost in the electoral college. The only other mismatches occurred in 1888, 1876 and 1824.

The current median difference between Biden and Trump is 9%, far larger than the 2% Clinton won by in 2016. We simply have no idea how the problems with COVID-19 will affect the total number of people voting in 2020, with serious controversy over mail-in and absentee voting, and a critical question over whether one party benefits in an election when the number of absentee ballots will no doubt increase. However, all things equal (although we know they are not), if the same number of people vote in 2020 as 2016, a 9% difference would equate to a popular vote advantage for Biden of over 11 million. It is difficult, if not impossible, to create a scenario that Trump could win the electoral college and lose the popular vote by 11 million, which is why it is important to keep an eye on the national polling. If national polling trends to a smaller difference, the question will become whether that possible change mirrors a change in the state polls and state projections depicted above.

Comments

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    • Sharlee01 profile image

      Sharlee 

      3 days ago

      Not sure it wise to rely on polls. The same time period in 2016 Hillary was crushing Trump. I agree everyone should vote, It's a very important election. However, wins will bring forth change.

    • Angel Guzman profile image

      Angel Guzman 

      4 days ago from Joliet, Illinois

      I think it's amazing the current status of the polls. Trump has dragged down the republican party. Go Trump! Please keep talking! Keep tweeting! Don't change! Who would have anticipated Arizona, Georgia, and Texas to be competitive in 2020? I am nervous because republicans don't want everyone to vote and strategically work to limit the vote but everyone should vote!! You should be confident in your positions!! I am hopeful for another 2008 but who knows, we might see another 1984 or 1964. That be awesome!

    • Sharlee01 profile image

      Sharlee 

      5 days ago

      I agree. we have a bit to go before the election, and with all the upheaval it would be very hard to predict at this point. In January I would have said Trump was unbeatable.

      Every day I look at all the crazy the Dems are offering such as raise everyone's taxes, and take away Trump's break he had given big business will work to have people taking a good long look at Trump once again. Plus all the left-leaning ideology that is being talked about works to scare people.

      I am a pure capitalist and have become very jaded in regards to keeping what I worked hard to accumulate. So, Trump suited me fine, but as I said lots of time to look at both sides. So far, not pleased with any form of taxes being raised. I feel it will once again chase big business money out of the country. As well as us citizens that have tried of all the games our Government play at our expense.

      I am retired own in Mexico, and it gets harder and harder to return after winter has passed. Money just goes so much further too. America is just not a comfortable place any longer.

      One has to almost toss a coin to choose a president, this tells me the country is in trouble. Look at our choices, a man that clearly has serious character flaws, and another that is clearly senile. One must ask themselves, is America at all worth supporting?

    • emge profile image

      MG Singh 

      5 days ago from Singapore

      An article to stimulate the mind. Biden is leading at the moment but there are many variables. let's see if he can hold his lead and win.

    • Sharlee01 profile image

      Sharlee 

      6 days ago

      Interesting article--- I have compared the 2016 polls at about this point in the election journey Clinton and Trump were on. Actually Trump's chances look worse. It's almost like watching a rerun... In regards to the electoral college, they said Trump could never win enough to win, even early on the night of the election.

      Not sure I respect polls any longer.

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