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Will the Republicans Hold the US Senate in 2020?

Updated on September 22, 2020

Mark Kelly, Candidate for Senate (AZ)

Source

Establishing a baseline (updated July 27)

In the US Senate currently, there are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 Independents. Given the Independents caucus with the Democrats, the effective split is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. US Senators hold six year terms and there are 33 regular elections and two special elections to fill incomplete terms (AZ and GA).

We have to start somewhere with a baseline, in order to get to the competitive races. We still have Republican primaries in Georgia. However, "cutting to the chase", the incumbent Democratic candidate in Alabama, Doug Jones, is regarded as unlikely to defeat Republican candidate Tuberville. Although there is some disagreement, in Georgia, both races are rated as Republican, which would be no change. That would bring the Senate to Republican 54, Democratic 46, which is my baseline for this article. If the races in Alabama, Georgia or anywhere else (for example Kentucky) become competitive, I will re-establish the baseline and change the list of battleground states.

Polling in the Battleground States (updated September 22)

´╗┐State
DEM
REP
# polls
Prob D Win
Projection
AZ
49.9
41.3
40
93%
likely DEM
ME
46.8
42.3
14
73%
lean DEM
IA
45.4
44.0
12
57%
Toss-up
CO
50.2
40.0
9
95%
safe DEM
NC
45.4
40.2
48
76%
lean DEM
MT
45.6
45.9
8
49%
toss-up
Based on the average of all polls since May 1. Bold row reflects recent change.

Rating Organizations (updated September 22)

(click column header to sort results)
´╗┐  
CB  
Cook  
IE  
POL  
NIS  
538  
Polls  
ME
D
T
T
T
D
T
D
NC
T
T
T
T
D
D
D
MT
R
T
T
T
T
R
T
CO
D
T
D
D
D
D
D
AZ
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
IA
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
CB: Sabato's Crystal Ball. Cook: Cook Political Report. IE: Inside Elections. POL: Politico. NIS: Niskanen Center. Polls: Based on top chart (+/- 2% is toss-up). R = Republican. D = Democratic. T = Toss-up. Bold cell = recent change

US Senate Race: Republicans 48, Democrats 48, Toss-Up 4 (updated September 21)

Starting with the baseline which had removed one Democrat (Alabama), and given all of the data above, we add Colorado and Arizona as Democratic pickups, which brings the number of Democrats from 46 to 48 and the number of Republicans from 54 to 52. Further, we establish four toss-up states: Maine, North Carolina, Montana and Iowa, where the state with the incumbent Republican, is now considered a toss-up race. What happens if the Democrats pickup ME and NC and the Republicans hold MT and IA? We would have a tie where the party of the Vice-President would determine control of the Senate.


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    • emge profile image

      MG Singh emge 

      2 months ago from Singapore

      Interesting coverage. One will have to wait and see how things pan out.

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