I agree with Ramsa1. The answer to your question is: None of the above. Please do not read my hub on the subject, because I'm not as polite as you are, and you may be offended at my directness.
Anyway, all of the Global Warming Alarmist claims of the 21st Century are 100% pure garbage. In the 1980s and 1990s, there was a fairly robust warming trend. That trend peaked and then died in 1998, according to the satellite data. Since then, there's been no discernible trend in either direction.
There are no honest mistakes here. There's been a lot of flat-out lying on the part of people who do not deserve to be called scientists. The politics are complicated and ugly.
We live in an imperfect world. Please do not make the mistake of assuming that everyone is as honorable as you are. Jumping on the Anthropogenic Global Warming bandwagon would be a huge waste of your precious time.