There is nothing "certain" in politics. People are frustrated with the lack of progess the country has made economically. The same thing was true during 2007/2008 which is why Obama was elected in the first place.
Had things been going great he never would have won. However for a Republican to win they have do more than simply say they are "anti- Obama".
Someone has to stand up and show they have real solutions to the challenges the nation faces. In fact they must be able to show they can lead the free world. We are in fact in a "global recession". It's not as though Europe and the rest of the world is flourishing.
In all honesty the president is little more than a figure head. He does not write legislation nor does he pass legislation. Congress and the Senate have the real power to effect change. No longer do the parties roll up their sleeves and come together in a crisis to put the nation back on track. "Party loyalty is more important than national interest." I wrote this in "Political Gridlock: It's the American Way!
President Obama has a war chest full of money to run for re-election. None of the Republican candidates thus far comes across as being able to outshine him in a one on one debate forum. In fact his oratory skills and quick on his feet thinking sets him apart from most politicians.
Another obstacle is the opposition party will have to spend much more time on issues and policy as oppose to the normal "personal attacks" often used to turn the tide in elections. Race is still the big elephant in the room. No one wants to be seen as a racist.
In some ways this could be a good thing for the nation to have an election decided upon issues and a candidate's agenda rather than personal attacks. (National health care - Yes/No, Higher taxes on the wealthy Yes/No, Cut spending on government entitlement programs such as welfare, unemployment, social security, medicare/medicaid Yes/No, Decrease taxes and regulations for business Yes/No...etc) One thing is for certain there are enough differences in the parties this time around where there is not much "gray" when it comes to making a selection. In the end however it is congress who will ultimately determine if the economy improves.