The AI Agent-Driven Socialism-azation Of The US Economy

1. 84

   GA Andersonposted 22 hours ago

   A Smerconish show prompted a morning thought:
   
   How will the Right adapt to the inevitable, and coming, socialismazation (cute) of our economy, driven by AI's jobs-disrupting effect?
   
   Shooting from the hip ...
   
   The context: A book about the coming AI-driven jobs displacement crisis. The claim: AI (AGI) will displace 99% of human job opportunities within ~ 5 years. The lede: Current headlines about the Big Boys cutting 10's of thousands of jobs, now. And that is with current levels of AI Agents development 'only' reaching mid-management-level expertise.
   
   Real AGI could reach a co-CEO level of expertise. That could happen next week or at the latest, next year (maybe). Pile on current robotics developments, and Optimus plumbers are no longer an improbability.
   
   Then toss in the population demographics. Currently, our workforce producers (and achievers) are primarily middle-income (and often approaching middle-aged) earners, and those aging out of the workforce. The next two generations entering the workforce clearly have a different social structure perspective than Boomers and Gen Xers.
   
   The point: Current reality says the AI development and capability advancements support the author's claims of job displacement. Where will the next two generations of new workers find jobs?
   
   Is the ghost of UBI laughing that he told us so? I think it is. I think the author was conceptually right. It's coming, we're seeing the start in today's headlines and companies' promos.
   
   How the hell are Republicans going to deal with that? Will conservatives believe the jobs-displacement is "inevitable"?
   
   The caveats: no political specifics needed, it's about a coming inevitability, that point comes before the politics of it. And for those 'special people' (poke, poke) and 'sharpshooters,' a big caveat: The labels Republican and Democrat, Conservative and Liberal, Left and Right, are only descriptors of ideology grouping. Bring whatever baggage you want with them, but that's how they're addressed here.
   
   A last little caveat: yeah, I do use "Republican" a little more 'pointedly,' but that's because they're buds and they need a little sharper poke because their hides are tougher.   ;-)
   
   Consider the available meat: UBI, who's responsible and has to pay, what will AGI availability, on your phone, do to our higher education system (who needs college now?), and more ...
   
   GA

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   1. 85

      Sharlee01posted 18 hours agoin reply to this

      AI is definitely shaking things up, and job disruption is a real concern, but history shows humans adapt and innovate when big changes hit. From the Agricultural to the Industrial Revolution, major shifts caused upheaval but also created entirely new industries and opportunities. Policies that encourage retraining, entrepreneurship, and smart use of AI can turn disruption into progress, and while UBI and education will play a role, I don’t see a total collapse of jobs; more likely, work will be redefined and new paths will emerge. Do you feel our government has considered that these changes are coming, and are they working to face some of these challenges?
      
      Shar

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      1. 84

         GA Andersonposted 11 hours agoin reply to this

         Beats the hell out of me. I have enough to consider in just the jobs disruption aspect of the OP.
         
         I think the reality of the next two generations' job market will be nearly as bad as the mentioned author claimed. That reality won't depend on who to blame; it will be a fact.
         
         Look how quickly AI went from ChatGPT 1.0 offering multi-cultural Vikings to AI Agents sophisticated enough to visually represent, and nearly-sententially verbally interact with clients of large iconic corporations. Months, a year maybe.
         
         We're past any point for Asimov's Three Rules of Robotics (govt. control). We're more nearly at the iRobot point.* The genie is out of the bottle. The job loss will be fast and industry-changing.
         
         In my great and renowned wisdom, this change doesn't feel like a good fit for the historical 'era' change comparisons. That is a secondary discussion. I'm still working on this one. It isn't going to happen in decades or generational years (father & son), it's going to happen in a few years. Possibly as few as four or five.
         
         That's fast, and right now it's a *shrug* question for most folks and too many real experts. This might be my first chink; a pessimistic leak. It's going to wreck middle-class America and create an unbearable welfare need as necessary as it is large.
         
         What a bummer. First, a possible chink in my optimistic armor, and now an earworm, ♫ I see a bad moon arisin' ♫. stuck in my head.
         
         GA

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   2. 81

      peterstreepposted 17 hours agoin reply to this

      Yes, interesting. Although I think the word socialismazation, whatever that means, has nothing to do with it.
      AI is developed by the big tech companies on a huge scale and millions of dollars are put in this field by the government and hedge funds. AI will replace a lot of white collar jobs. Information jobs, jobs depended on knowledge instead of skill will go out of the window.
      It used to be the blue color jobs that were replaced by machines in the factory through technologies. Now it is the white color jobs that will go.
      But it is incredibly difficult to predict. The internet for instance and the technology of the computer has created millions of new jobs in a field nobody knew existed.
      The world is changing... and fast...
      
      The thing that we defiantly should worry about is what would happen if AI becomes self aware. And this is no longer a funny sci-fi scenario anymore. We create a being that is far more intelligent than humans.
      And we can see in nature what happens with the less intelligent species. They are becoming extinct. Intentionally or accidentally. Because who cares about ants. You step on them without thinking...
      The only time when a smarter animal cares and protects a less smarter animal is when it has a family bond like mother-baby.
      To survive as a species, we have to build into the AI a formula so it will still see us as a mother, even if it is a 1000 times more intelligent than we are.
      (Basically the 3 laws Asimov was talking about...)
      
      Along all the problems we have in the world. The biggest problems that should be addressed are Generative AI and the Climate Crisis.
      imho..

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      1. 84

         GA Andersonposted 10 hours agoin reply to this

         I almost made a semi-sarcastic reply that, 'Yeah, they could write books on it,' but I didn't. All your points are valid and arguable, but you put the whole pile on the table. I'm still working on accepting the inevitability of the job issue predictions becoming a pre-analysis of reality part.
         
         GA  ;-)

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      2. 72

         Ken Burgessposted 6 hours agoin reply to this

         You shouldn't fear AI...
         
         You should fear the billionaires that think it's a good idea to cull the global population by 90%.
         
         The people who see the profit and power releasing a truly deadly virus will bring.
         
         The ones who planned and considered the 2020 Pandemic a dry run for the real thing.
         
         You should fear the rich of the world, people like Bill Gates or Jeff Bezos that have more money and influence than most nations.

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2. 79

   wildernessposted 16 hours ago

   99% of jobs will disappear.  It always tickles me when people make such foolish claims, for they are based on a completely biased, personal, objective view of the workforce.
   
   Is the guy digging trenches in my yard for a new irrigation system going to be out of a job?  The mechanic installing a tow package on my car?  The crew installing a new bathroom in my home?  The crew installing new windows?  How about the crew putting down a new roadway?  Are we going to have truly autonomous cars/trucks within 5 years, putting truck drivers, taxi drivers and couriers all out of business?
   
   Peterstreep is correct; AI will do away with some knowledge based jobs, the but blue collar workforce is going to keep growing.  To say that only 1% of the American workers will have a job in 5 years because of AI is foolish beyond belief, IMO.

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   1. 72

      Ken Burgessposted 12 hours agoin reply to this

      Agreed... White collar jobs will be wiped out perhaps...
      
      Blue collar jobs will be around for many more years to come.
      
      The idea that a fleet of robots could be built that quick and be that capable of replacing all those jobs... not likely to occur in our lifetimes.
      
      They will fill most factory jobs, many warehouse jobs, many white collar jobs... a lot of service industry jobs.
      
      But the plumbers, electricians, mechanics and repairmen will be around a while. 
      
      If we turn to Socialism (Communism) it will bring about the death of tens of millions of Americans... if you thought the revolution was ugly in China... it will be worse here...
      
      That Mandami guy wants the absolution of private property and wants to confiscate wealth... he is a Communist's Communist as we are going to get to see in the years ahead, it will be fun to watch... couldn't happen to a better State.
      
      
      Speaking of Mandami... I watched a great piece on him, a lot of his own words, and while I recommend the whole video, I timestamped it to the best part:
      
      https://youtu.be/TUAmUBdgH4U?t=1225

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   2. 84

      GA Andersonposted 9 hours agoin reply to this

      Well gee, I did toss in the 'claim in a book' qualifier. And the multiple inferences to the reality of the predicted trend, (not the 99% number), and a couple three soliid current news examples and ...
      
      But, as a peace offering with a direction arrow attached, you are right about the replacing 99% part. I went on to support the concept, if not the 'physical' number. What if it were a majority percent instead of a number?
      
      I didn't peek, but in your list of jobs that won't be replaced, I think there are currently robots designed to do each of them. Perhaps not to the point of replacing workers in toto in any field, but they will soon be capable of at least impacting the field very soon.
      
      But save that. Hang on to these demographics; middle-class/middle-income workers are about 35 - 40% (give or take) of the workforce, and they pay ~ 60% of Federal income tax receipts. Blue collar is, I think, 15% and 24% respectively.
      
      Boil that down to the economic impact: The largest tax base contributor at the Federal and probably state level is going to be crushed —their jobs are the first broad category already being hit. Welfare programs will be (and probably are now being) overwhelmed with legitimate claims of need from a category never expected or planned for.
      
      Anyway, reconsider the OP's list of reasonings without the worry of a specific number, just consider it as a large majority. The trend I supported looks very real to me, even the disagreement with your confidence in skilled tradework jobs seems supportable. They already have semi-autonomous robotic surgery, and just recently I saw a robotics demo of a robot with the dexterity, flexibility, and mobility to do 'under-the-kitchen-sink plumbing, along with new-construction plumbing tasks. It isn't there yet, but it's not a pipedream either. Economic scale is the only barrior now, and that will change fast, as today's $250 dollar 65" flatscreens show. How much were they two years ago? Extrapolate that reality to Musk's guesstimates that the first Optimus robots are targeted to be around $25,000. What if they hit the market like Bigscreens did: A $1000 Opitmous in two years, a 'Like new' 3-year-old model for only $399? That was the point relative to the 'trend.' Robots are getting 'Blue-collar-level skills' and they're gonna get a lot cheaper.
      
      Nope, they won't replace skilled workers, but they're going to impact them in the same way you have described illegal workers impacting the construction industry workers around your field. Bigly.  ;-)
      
      GA

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