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2014 NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Predictions

Updated on January 13, 2015

Divisional Round Recap

For a second straight round, Centrary correctly guessed both NFC games, but not either AFC game. Again, the game I had the most trust in Centrary getting right - and the game I had the least trust in - were both wrong. So, that's 4-0 in the NFC, 0-4 in the AFC, for a postseason record of 4-4. I keep this in mind when gauging the trustworthiness of the next two picks.

This week, there are just the two conference championship games to predict, but I will also continue the loser bracket simulation that I started last time.

Conference Championship Picks

As always, the Centrary simulator is used to make these picks.

#2 Green Bay Packers (at) #1 Seattle Seahawks

Pick: 34-28 Seattle (OT)

Accuracy: Including last week, Centrary is 12-5 in Packers games (just 3-3 when picking AGAINST Green Bay). Including last week, Centrary is 12-5 in Seahawks games (12-4 when picking FOR Seattle).

Trustworthiness: ~80%

Centrary sees a close, back-and-forth game between these two teams, with Green Bay scoring a tying touchdown in the 4th quarter, but unable to stop Seattle in the overtime period as they march down for the Conference-clinching touchdown.

#4 Indianapolis Colts (at) #1 New England Patriots

Pick: 35-14 New England

Accuracy: Including the last two weeks, Centrary is 14-4 in Colts games (4-3 when picking AGAINST Indianapolis, including 0-2 this postseason). Including last week, Centrary is 10-7 in Patriots games (9-3 when picking FOR New England).

Trustworthiness: ~55%

The Patriots pour it on and shut it down in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. The Colts get a TD in the 4th, but its far too little, far too late. Centrary expects Super Bowl XLIX to be between the two top seeds in the NFL.

Bonus: "Loser Bracket" Simulations - Conclusion

Last week, I started a loser bracket simulation featuring the 20 teams that did not make the postseason, seeded by conference. I went through two rounds where the losers of each game advanced, and we are left currently with just eight teams. Lets see which team Centrary truly believes was the worst of the worst.

Quarterfinal Round

#16 Tampa Bay (at) #10 Minnesota: 29-20 Buccaneers

#14 Chicago (at) #13 St. Louis: 35-10 Rams

#16 Tennessee (at) #13 New York: 30-21 Jets

#15 Oakland (at) #14 Jacksonville: 35-14 Jaguars

Semifinal Round

#14 Chicago (at) #10 Minnesota: 27-7 Vikings

#16 Tennessee (at) #15 Oakland: 24-23 Raiders

Like the Super Bowl, the supposed "Toilet Bowl" is also held at a neutral location.

#16 Tennessee (vs) #14 Chicago: 28-3 Bears

So, Centrary believes the Tennessee Titans are the worst team in the league! Too bad the Titans actually have the #2 pick in the draft.

Following this week's games, I'll be back to make a prediction on one final game: Super Bowl XLIX.

The Conference Championship predictions and Loser Bracket picks were made with the Centrary sports simulator, which simulates teams, not players, and in a quick, simple fashion.

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