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2014 NFL Season: Week 11 Predictions

Updated on November 11, 2014

Week 10 Recap

Centrary, the simulator I use to make my picks, did alright in Week 10, going 9-4 with its pick. It got the Game of the Week wrong, as the 49ers hung on to beat the Saints in overtime. Its now 7-3 in those picks. It did get the Falcons correct in the Snore of the Week, and is now 6-4 in those games.

Best pick: there's a few good candidates here, but most of them were blowouts that Centrary predicted would be blowouts. As such, I think it picking the Chiefs to win with a come-from-behind 4th quarter touchdown was as accurate as it can get without getting the score right.

Worst pick: Well, I'd like to nominate the Steelers pick because, yet again, it found a way to get that wrong even against a team like the Jets. The Miami pick doesn't look good either, especially since I threw in the "are they legit" at the end of their pick, and they lost (albeit in the last minute). I think of the two, the Miami pick is a bit worse, because I expect Centrary to get the Steelers wrong at this point.

Week 11 features four teams on bye: Dallas, Jacksonville, Baltimore and the New York Jets. With that, lets see how Centrary sees Week 11 turning out.

Week 11 Picks

As noted, the Centrary simulator makes these picks.

@Miami 27, Buffalo 10: Miami goes 21-0 in the 2nd half for the rout.

@Carolina 30, Atlanta 27: The Panthers come back down 14-3 at halftime to give the Falcons yet another depressing loss.

Minnesota 33, @Chicago 14: The Vikings go up 13-0 at halftime, then keep things steady from there to keep the Bears in misery.

@Cleveland 20, Houston 7: The Browns defense keeps Houston in check, and the Browns get another win.

@Green Bay 24, Philadelphia 20: The Packers get the first TD then hang on in a back-and-forth game to earn a close victory.

Seattle 35, @Kansas City 16: These two teams have been battling recently over the record for "loudest stadium", but it looks like Arrowhead will remain mostly silent if this score comes to pass, especially as the Seahawks open up a 21-10 halftime lead.

@New Orleans 52, Cincinnati 17: Who dey? Who dat. Man, those phrases are awful. Anyway, the Saints go up 21-0 after one, 35-7 at half, 45-7 after three in a thorough pummeling of the Bengals.

San Francisco 27, @NY Giants 16: The 49ers get a 17-7 2nd quarter which makes all the difference in this game.

Denver 48, @St. Louis 31: The Broncos open up a 21-0 lead after the first quarter. The Rams play better from there, but too little, too late.

Snore of the Week - @Washington 37, Tampa Bay 34: Well, the score implies it'll be an exciting game if you ignore how bad these teams have been. The Redskins get 14 points in the 4th to stage a late comeback.

@San Diego 27, Oakland 20: The Raiders keep it close thanks to a 14-0 3rd quarter, but the Chargers pull it together in the final frame to avoid disaster.

Game of the Week - @Arizona 20, Detroit 10: Centrary has not been kind to the Lions this season, and its not being kind to them here in a matchup between two of the NFC's top defenses. The Cardinals get a 10-3 4th quarter to hold off the Lions and earn another quality victory.

New England 30, @Indianapolis 16: A game consisting of mostly field goals, the Patriots start the 3rd quarter strong, which is enough to win the game for them.

@Tennessee 28, Pittsburgh 24: The Titans get 14 in the 1st and 14 in the 4th for the victory. Considering Centrary has only gotten ONE of Pittsburgh's ten games correct thus far, I'm not surprised its taking the Titans to win this game, because its probably wrong.

Takeaways

I've made a big deal about how bad Centrary is with Steelers games, but its not the only teams it has struggled with. Its only gotten both the New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins correct two out of nine times, and the Lions have been chosen correctly by it just three out of nine times. Its not surprising it got the Lions/Dolphins game last week wrong, as a result.

Does that mean the Bills will actually win? The Bengals instead win in the Superdome? The Lions finding a way to beat 8-1 Arizona on the road? Who can say, especially those last two points. I highly doubt the Titans will actually win as well, though with it being a Monday night game at home it is possible, but I'll probably have to expect nominating it for worst pick for next week.

The predictions here were made with the Centrary sports simulator, which simulates teams, not players, and in a quick, simple fashion.

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